Josh Allen (QB, BUF) - Week 15 Waiver Wire Pickups

December 11, 2018

Elliott Baas profiles quarterback Josh Allen as a waiver wire pickup for Week 15 of the 2018 NFL season.

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14-Team  Leagues

OWNED IN: 14% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: Even though Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen meets the ownership threshold to be a deep-league option, he can be considered in leagues of all depth. Allen has been everything we’ve wanted Lamar Jackson to be since Allen returned from injury. In his three games since returning Allen has 25.79 points in standard scoring leagues, which would be the second-highest average points per game among all quarterbacks, behind only Patrick Mahomes. Lamar Jackson has averaged a respectable 18.66 points per game, which is fine, but Jackson seems to have gotten all the hype while Allen’s performances have gone unnoticed or fantasy owners don’t seem to care.

The lack of excitement over Allen is understandable for a few reasons. First, Allen was bad in the beginning of the season. He only scored more than 15 points once prior to his injury. Second, Allen plays for a terrible team in arguably the worst offense in the league. It is certainly bottom-five in terms of supporting talent. Third, Allen is often reckless with the ball, as evidenced by his back-to-back two-interception games over the last two weeks. This one isn’t as worrying as the others, and sometimes a rookie quarterback, especially one on a bad team, will benefit from taking big risks rather than checking the ball down. Compared to the timidity we’ve seen from other rookies, the turnovers for Allen aren’t as worrying from a fantasy perspective. Yes, an interception costs points, but so does constantly dumping off to a running back or tight end. If we’re digging this deep we want as much upside as possible, and Allen is probably the closest thing to a boom-or-bust quarterback in the league right now (that'll change if Ryan Fitzpatrick can find his way back onto the field).

The Bills take on the Lions in Week 15, and Detroit has been neutral against the pass, allowing the 14th-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, with a rushing and deep-ball slinging quarterback like Allen matchup matters less than it does for a traditional quarterback. He isn’t going to masterfully pick apart anyone’s secondary, so we don’t need to wait for an easy matchup to deploy him. For low-owned quarterbacks he’s the best option as a streamer or two-QB fill-in for Week 15. He's even worth consideration in one-quarterback leagues.