Flex Heroes and Zeroes - Week 14 Fantasy Football Picks

December 8, 2018

RotoBaller lead editor Pierre Camus provides his favorite sleeper picks at QB, RB, WR, and TE, as well as players to fade for flex spots in Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season for fantasy football lineup prep.

It's playoff time, so let's cut to the chase. You need these flex plays to pay off. Unless you're sitting at 10-3 or better and have a bye in the first round, just sitting and watching the scoreboard, laughing as your competition sweats over every carry and dropback, hoping and praying for fantasy points so they can at least earn one playoff W for the right to face your juggernaut squad in the semi-finals only to get their hopes crushed by another three-touchdown day by Todd Gurley.

But that's not you. If it were, you obviously would have no need to read this article, other than the obvious entertainment value through the dry wit and deeply embedded pop culture references. So, let's look at some fringy (and sometimes cringy) fantasy starters who you should consider flexing or benching for Week 14.

Now, here are my fantasy flex and streamer "heroes" and "zeroes" at each position for Week 14 of the NFL season. These players are borderline start considerations for your flex and superflex spots that I believe will perform unexpectedly well or that might fare poorly relative to expectations in this week's matchups. To see how our staff feels about every fantasy-relevant player in the known universe, look no further than our very own RotoBaller consensus weekly rankings. Good luck Ballers!

Week 14 Lineup Heroes

QUARTERBACK

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

When my gut tells me a bold call is in order, much like John McCrea I like to go the distance. On this week's Fantasy Bomb QB Start/Sit, I called starting Wentz against a much-improved Dallas defense as my Baller Move™ of the week. The current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR™) on FanasyPros has Wentz as the QB19 this week, whereas I've bumped him up to 12th. I have three main reasons for this, none of them particularly good. 1) Wentz fared just fine against this same defense four weeks ago, throwing for 360 yards and two TD. 2) He really had two down weeks, coincidentally after Golden Tate arrived, but prior to that had been averaging 307 yards and 2.1 TD per game. 3) Dallas looked dominant last week but they only forced one turnover and are 22nd in the league with eight interceptions. Recency bias says avoid Dallas D but I actually think they could have a letdown game here at home. Philly's offense clicked last week with Tate in the mix and they have a consistent running game with Josh Adams now. If he can reach 300 yards with a pair of touchdowns as expected, that seems like a top-12 QB this week with a fairly secure floor. Let's call it a Securifloor™.

RUNNING BACK

Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers

The short version is that I have Jackson, a seventh-round pick with 20 career NFL carries, as a top-20 RB this week. The Bengals are putting the B in bad, especially on the defensive side of the ball, allowing five yards per carry and just over a touchdown per game on the ground. What about Austin Ekeler, their lead back? Here's what head coach Anthony Lynn had to say after last week's win: "He's wearing down a little bit. He's a core special teams guy for us and he's played a lot of running back for us. So he's a little tired. You might see Justin (Jackson) play a little bit more..." Maybe Jackson's 82 yards and touchdown run on nine touches has something to do with Ekeler's sudden fatigue. Ekeler wasn't especially effective with the added pressure and has totaled 111 yards in the two games Melvin Gordon has missed this season. Jackson should get upwards of 15 carries and may not need much more to put up an RB2 day against a reeling Bengals team.

WIDE RECEIVER

Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills

Apologies to Kyle Richardson for this call, as he is even more invested in Jones this week than I am (but who owns him in our dynasty league, huh?) Sans Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes, the Bills have effectively committed addition by subtraction and can focus on their new WR1 in Jones. Between a goose egg against the Jags and a bye week, he has come away with lines of 8-93-1 in Week 10 and 4-67-2 in Week 13. Josh Allen is looking, dare I say, decent at quarterback and now gets a great matchup this week against a flightless Jets team allowing the third-most receptions and 190 yards per game to WRs. Jones will be fed targets this week and is a borderline must-start in PPR leagues.

TIGHT END

Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers

It could be inferred that the Raiders are not good on defense, generally speaking. They're even worse against tight ends, the worst actually, allowing a league-high nine TD in 11 games and 11.8 fantasy PPG. McDonald is practically the tight end version of Sammy Watkins when it comes to nagging injuries and was slowed by his wonky hip last week but should be close to 100% for this matchup. In these dark days at tight end, he must be in the TE1 story/conversation/discussion/narrative for Week 14.

Week 14 Lineup Zeroes

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

Bench Goff just because he's playing the Bears in Soldier Field? Can it be all so simple? Yes, now stop overthinking things. The Bears allow the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs and have more interceptions (21) than touchdowns allowed (20). There's also the fact that Goff clearly loves L.A. and continues to post a pronounced home/road split. He has thrown half as many touchdowns on the road (18-9) in an equal number of games and throws for 259 yards per road game, compared to 366 yards at home. Trust your playoff chances to someone else.

RUNNING BACK

Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs

We know what happened to Kareem Hunt and while we may be disappointed if he's gone from our fantasy team, we should be happy to see him get a swift boot out of the league, at least temporarily. Ware stepped in as expected to start, taking 14 of the team's 19 rush attempts. While he only managed 52 total yards, he scored on one of his two goal-line carries, saving his fantasy day. That was against the Raiders. The 2-10 Raiders who rank among the worst defenses in the league. Now he faces the Ravens, who hold opponents to 3.4 yards per carry, 65 yards per game and have given up five TD in 12 games, making them the top fantasy defense against RBs. That TD upside is still present because, you know, Chiefs, but there are plenty of other backs who also could score and maybe get some yards too.

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

Hating on Miller isn't en vogue anymore, as he has gone over 100 yards in four of his last six games. He didn't do so great the first time these teams met, running for 49 yards in Week 4. It's not a devastating matchup on paper, but the Colts do hold running backs to 3.8 yards per carry and have held three of their last four opponents under 100 rushing yards. Now that D'Onta Foreman is finally officially back, he could get worked into the mix too. Miller isn't a strict sit for me but with the influx of young backs suddenly arriving this week, Miller is less appealing and doesn't seem to have the same level of upside.

TIGHT END

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With O.J. Howard gone, Brate is still the main tight end on a pass-happy team. That has resulted in 10 targets the last two games but sometimes targets don't equal production. He has yet to go over 36 yards in either game with one touchdown. In fact, he's only scored once in the last seven games and has seen much of his red zone work go to Adam Humphries (five TD the last five games). New Orleans is a reverse funnel defense (is that like a vacuum then?), bottling up running backs and tight ends as the third-best defense against each, but giving it up and turning it loose to wide receivers. Brate could reach the end zone but even so that's about all he'll do.

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