Trusting Jameis Winston Down the Stretch

November 27, 2018

Is Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston ready to be a fantasy stud again? Daniel Benjamin looks at the quarterback's profile to see if he can become a key factor in fantasy football down the playoff stretch.

Jameis Winston is getting another opportunity to prove that he is not only the quarterback of the present but also of the future for the Tampa Bay Buccanneers. Winston made his first start in almost a month against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, one week after replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick during the third quarter of the Buccaneers 38-35 Week 11 loss to the Giants. He earned the start by nearly leading the Bucs to a come-from-behind victory as he produced a touchdown on four straight drives. The 24-year-old finished the game 12-for-16 for 199 yards with two touchdowns, which was enough to earn him another shot.

Winston followed the strong relief performance with an outstanding outing against the 49ers in Week 12. The fourth-year pro completed 29 of 38 passes (76.1 percent) for 312 yards and two touchdowns in the 27-9 victory. He did not throw an interception for the first time in six appearances and distributed the ball extremely well among the Bucs' receivers. Eight different players caught a pass with Mike Evans and Adam Humphries leading the way with six receptions apiece.

Tampa Bay (4-7) will likely miss the playoffs for the 11th consecutive year as they need to win out to have any chance of snapping their postseason drought. The Bucs have a myriad of problems, particularly on defense, with their biggest issue being turnover differential. The Buccaneers have turned the ball over a league-high 29 times, which includes a league-leading 23 interceptions. They did not post a turnover in Week 12, marking the first time that has occurred since Week 1. So, after a successful week, the big question is whether this was an anomaly against a bad team or has the former Florida State star finally turned the corner for good?

Trusting Winston

Winston has earned passer ratings of 130 (versus the Giants) and 117.4 (versus the 49ers) the last two games, marking the first time that he has topped the 100-rating mark in back-to-back games since December of 2017. It is only the fourth time in his career that he has accomplished the feat. The 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick is 41-for-54 (75.9 percent) for 511 yards as well as four touchdowns and one interception over the last two games.

Winston, who has had the keys to Bucs offense since being drafted, has improved each year of his career and this season is no different. He does need to make better decisions, which would cut his astronomical 5.7 percent interception rate down, but he is setting career-highs in several other categories. Winston is currently setting personal bests in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passing yards per game, yards per completion, passer rating, QBR as well as net yards per attempt. Also, his 4.9 touchdown percentage ties a career-best.

Winston has thrown for 300 or more yards three times this year, despite starting just four games, and has completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of the six games he has appeared in. Part of his success has to do with the development of the team's weapons that the Buccaneers have surrounded him with. Evans and DeSean Jackson, both of whom are former All-Pro selections, have bounced back from disappointing 2017 campaigns. Youngsters Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard has had breakout seasons while Humphries is having an excellent season. Running backs Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers, as well as Cameron Brate, also have had their moments.

A Favorable Schedule

Tampa Bay continues its three-game homestand at Raymond James Stadium by hosting Carolina in Week 13 and New Orleans in Week 14. The Bucs then head out of town to face the Ravens and Cowboys before closing the season at home against the Falcons.

For the season, the Ravens are No. 1 in the league in scoring defense while the Cowboys are fourth and the Saints are 15th. Meanwhile, the Panthers are ranked 20th, and the Falcons are 29th in scoring defense.

Carolina has lost three straight games following their 30-27 setback to Seattle where Russell Wilson torched the Panthers for 339 passing yards and two touchdowns as he completed 22 of 31 passes. It was the second time in the past three games that the Panthers allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 242 yards along with four touchdowns and a couple of picks as the Bucs lost 42-28 earlier this season.

The Saints are also surrendering a lot of yards through the air both home and on the road. Fitzpatrick racked up 417 yards and four touchdowns against them in Tampa's Week 1 shootout victory (48-40). The Cowboys and Ravens have been much worse defending the pass lately, however, both teams allow more passing yards on the road than at home. The Falcons, who have been much better against the pass lately, is giving up a lot less passing yards on the road than they do at home. Atlanta and New Orleans are surrendering the third and fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Carolina (eighth most points allowed) is also giving up more than 19 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Dallas (19th), as well as Baltimore (2oth), has shown they also can be vulnerable.

Baltimore is also No.1 in total defense and No. 2 in passing defense. Dallas is ranked eighth in total defense and 12th in passing defense. Carolina and New Orleans are ranked in the top half of the league in total defense, but they are in the bottom half in passing defense. Atlanta ranks among the worst in the league in both categories. While the Ravens pose a serious threat, the Bucs have a schedule that makes Winston a very desirable asset for the rest of the season.

The O-Line

Fitzpatrick and Winston have been battered around this year. The two quarterbacks have been sacked 28 times and hit 72 total times, which was the fifth-most in the league (prior to Week 12). They have been sacked three or more times in a game in half of their contests so far.

The good news is that the O-line has improved throughout the season. The Bucs' offensive line began the season ranked 21st at the start of the season by Pro Football Focus and were ranked 17th after Week 10. Not a huge difference, but the offensive line has permitted just two sacks in the last couple of weeks, and the reduced turnovers may be in part due to Winston having more time to make decisions.

Winston has been sacked 14 times on his 216 dropbacks, which equates to a below average 6.4 percent sack rate. Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, was sacked 14 times on 260 dropbacks for a 5.4 percent sack rate.

Left guard Ali Marpet, who has graded out as a good pass blocker (14th best among all guards) by Pro Football Focus, is currently playing the best football in his four-year career.  Center Ryan Jensen and right tackle Demar Dotson have graded out as above average pass blockers while left tackle Donovan Smith is considered to be average in that department.

The Verdict

Winston has, without doubt, played better in these two games than he did in his previous outings against the Bengals (Oct. 21) and the Browns (Oct. 28), where he combined to complete 50 of 87 (57.4 percent) passes for 641 yards along with one touchdown and six interceptions. More importantly, he has made good decisions for the most part. This year's group of receivers are the best that Winston has worked with in his professional career. Plus, the men up front who are protecting Winston have been very good in pass protection.

So yes, fantasy owners can trust Winston going forward. He has played pretty well in December throughout his career, and the Bucs have one of the best passing attacks in the league. Winston completes 62.4 percent of his passes in the month of December, which is his highest of the four months of the season while throwing for an average of 279.9 yards along with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 13 appearances.

The 6-foot-4, 231-pounder can beat teams with both his arm and legs. The biggest concern going forward, besides decision-making, is his indecisiveness when getting pressured as he often tries to make the big play, thus holding on to the ball too long, which leads to him taking unnecessary sacks. Also, he has been inaccurate when throwing medium length passes (11-20 yards) this year. Winston has connected on just 34 of 62 (54.8 percent) of these types of passes with just two touchdowns and five interceptions. In comparison, he is completing 81.1 percent (60 of 74) of his short pass attempts (10 or fewer yards).

Despite only playing in five games, starting three, Winston has the 29th-most fantasy points in all of fantasy with 82 (prior to Week 12). Therefore, if he played every game so far this season, Winston would be considered either a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 at this point. Not bad considering the circumstances.

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