X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Is It Legit? Adalberto Mondesi's Breakout Season

Is Royals SS Adalberto Mondesi's breakout 2018 season legit or is he destined to bust next year? Andy Patton examines the fantasy baseball profile of Mondesi to help owners prepare for their fantasy drafts.

Welcome to the first edition of our new weekly column "Is It Legit?" that will discuss breakout performers from the 2018 MLB season and how they should be valued heading into 2019.

First up will be Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, son of former Major League player Raul Mondesi. Mondesi Jr. burst onto the scene in 2018. After taking over as Kansas City's starting shortstop in mid-June, he went ahead and hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Averaged out over 162 games, Mondesi would have posted 30 home runs and 70 stolen bases.

Let's get this out of the way right off the bat: Even the most optimistic 2019 projections don't have Mondesi posting the first 30/70 season in major league history. That would be absurd. However, 14 and 32 in 75 games will grab anyone's attention. Indeed, some very early 2019 preseason mock drafts have Mondesi as high as the second round. But does the 23-year-old infielder, who was a career .181 hitter in 72 games prior to 2018, really possess enough skill to be worth that kind of value next season?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Speed Yes, Power Not So Much

Coming up through the minors, Mondesi was highly-touted as a speedy middle infielder with an excellent glove and the ability to steal upwards of 30 bases in the show. He posted 15+ stolen bases every season in the minor leagues, so that projection is legit. Is Mondesi a 70-steals kind of guy? Probably not. However, Kansas City has long shown a willingness to run and I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Mondesi challenge for 50 bags next season. That alone makes him extremely valuable, as steals have become more and more of a commodity worth chasing early in drafts - unless, of course, you plan to punt the category.

Mondesi never hit more than 14 home runs in a full season on the farm, so seeing him hit 14 in just 75 big league games is worth a closer look. Mondesi's 36.6% hard-hit rate (according to Baseball Savant) was way, way higher than what he had posted in his first two partial seasons, where he topped out at 28.6%. That helped fuel his 19.7% HR/FB rate, a big jump from his previous two partial seasons.

My biggest concern with Mondesi is his exit velocity. Mondesi posted an EV of 87.4 miles per hour. While that's a big step forward from his previous stints, it ranks just 201st in the league - behind guys like Mikie Mahtook, James McCann, Brock Holt, and Jordy Mercer. Not exactly big power threats there. He barreled the ball up very well, posting a similar rate to Francisco Lindor and Rhys Hoskins. Plus, his launch angle of 11.8 certainly helped him lift more balls in the air - which obviously leads to more home runs.

Ultimately, a player with limited power in the minor leagues, a league-average exit velocity and launch angle, and playing in a big park like Kauffman stadium is probably not someone you want to gamble on reaching the 30, or even the 25, home run mark. I think Mondesi is more of a 15/30 guy - which is still an outstanding fantasy value in those two categories.

The problem is that while 15/40 is great, it comes with a .270 average at best and virtually no walks. In OBP leagues, Mondesi's value is even lower thanks to his 3.8% walk rate. Mondesi will struggle to post an OBP over .320, and probably will be at or under .300. He hit .276 last season thanks to an elevated .335 BABIP. While his speed does mean his BABIP will probably be above the .300 league average, I suspect he's more of a .265 hitter, which means his OBP will be around .290 unless he learns to take more walks, a skill he has yet to show at any level.

It's way too early to make concrete predictions, as Kansas City's lineup and other factors will determine how Mondesi performs. I think 12-15 home runs, 40-50 stolen bases and a .265/.290 BA/OBP seems about right - which gives Mondesi solid value in the 5-7 round area.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF