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Is Royals SS Adalberto Mondesi's breakout 2018 season legit or is he destined to bust next year? Andy Patton examines the fantasy baseball profile of Mondesi to help owners prepare for their fantasy drafts.
Welcome to the first edition of our new weekly column "Is It Legit?" that will discuss breakout performers from the 2018 MLB season and how they should be valued heading into 2019.
First up will be Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, son of former Major League player Raul Mondesi. Mondesi Jr. burst onto the scene in 2018. After taking over as Kansas City's starting shortstop in mid-June, he went ahead and hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Averaged out over 162 games, Mondesi would have posted 30 home runs and 70 stolen bases.
Let's get this out of the way right off the bat: Even the most optimistic 2019 projections don't have Mondesi posting the first 30/70 season in major league history. That would be absurd. However, 14 and 32 in 75 games will grab anyone's attention. Indeed, some very early 2019 preseason mock drafts have Mondesi as high as the second round. But does the 23-year-old infielder, who was a career .181 hitter in 72 games prior to 2018, really possess enough skill to be worth that kind of value next season?
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Speed Yes, Power Not So Much
Coming up through the minors, Mondesi was highly-touted as a speedy middle infielder with an excellent glove and the ability to steal upwards of 30 bases in the show. He posted 15+ stolen bases every season in the minor leagues, so that projection is legit. Is Mondesi a 70-steals kind of guy? Probably not. However, Kansas City has long shown a willingness to run and I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Mondesi challenge for 50 bags next season. That alone makes him extremely valuable, as steals have become more and more of a commodity worth chasing early in drafts - unless, of course, you plan to punt the category.
Mondesi never hit more than 14 home runs in a full season on the farm, so seeing him hit 14 in just 75 big league games is worth a closer look. Mondesi's 36.6% hard-hit rate (according to Baseball Savant) was way, way higher than what he had posted in his first two partial seasons, where he topped out at 28.6%. That helped fuel his 19.7% HR/FB rate, a big jump from his previous two partial seasons.
My biggest concern with Mondesi is his exit velocity. Mondesi posted an EV of 87.4 miles per hour. While that's a big step forward from his previous stints, it ranks just 201st in the league - behind guys like Mikie Mahtook, James McCann, Brock Holt, and Jordy Mercer. Not exactly big power threats there. He barreled the ball up very well, posting a similar rate to Francisco Lindor and Rhys Hoskins. Plus, his launch angle of 11.8 certainly helped him lift more balls in the air - which obviously leads to more home runs.
Ultimately, a player with limited power in the minor leagues, a league-average exit velocity and launch angle, and playing in a big park like Kauffman stadium is probably not someone you want to gamble on reaching the 30, or even the 25, home run mark. I think Mondesi is more of a 15/30 guy - which is still an outstanding fantasy value in those two categories.
The problem is that while 15/40 is great, it comes with a .270 average at best and virtually no walks. In OBP leagues, Mondesi's value is even lower thanks to his 3.8% walk rate. Mondesi will struggle to post an OBP over .320, and probably will be at or under .300. He hit .276 last season thanks to an elevated .335 BABIP. While his speed does mean his BABIP will probably be above the .300 league average, I suspect he's more of a .265 hitter, which means his OBP will be around .290 unless he learns to take more walks, a skill he has yet to show at any level.
It's way too early to make concrete predictions, as Kansas City's lineup and other factors will determine how Mondesi performs. I think 12-15 home runs, 40-50 stolen bases and a .265/.290 BA/OBP seems about right - which gives Mondesi solid value in the 5-7 round area.
