Warning Signals for RB/WR/TE - Week 5

October 3, 2018

Martin Konstantinov examines skill position players who have been busts or overvalued in 2018 heading into Week 5. These RB, WR, or TE could be cuts, drops or trade candidates in fantasy football leagues.

Every year, certain players are highly drafted in drafts by fantasy owners due to the belief that they will vastly outperform expectations throughout the season. Oftentimes, these players carry a significant amount of hype due to breakout potential, elite status, or lack of alternative options on their teams.

However, with every player that does meet the threshold for good performance, there seem to be several similar players that fail to live up to the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners. Whether the players are drafted at the beginning, middle, or end of drafts, not living up to the draft capital spent on them is one of the weekly dilemmas for fantasy owners.

Because fantasy owners tend to hold on to players that they believe in for too long, it is important to recognize warning signals from players early on so that the players can be removed from lineups and the damage of their poor performances can be mitigated. Let's take a look at some players at each of the skill positions who have shown some worrying signs this week. Fantasy owners should proceed with caution with the following players.

Warning Signals - RB/WR/TE

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

Despite possessing a 3-1 record, the Tennessee Titans have not been the offensive juggernaut that they could have been. Much of that comes from the lack of success in the team's rushing game. Running back Derrick Henry has been the team's main player out of the backfield, with 10, 18, and another 18 carries in Week 3. However, with a Week 4 fixture against the Philadelphia Eagles, Henry struggled and was only able to carry the ball eight times despite the team winning the game 26-23. The emergence of wide receiver Corey Davis as well as the poor play of the team's offense (somehow they still have been able to win three games) has limited Henry's workload potential. However, what is more concerning is Henry's efficiency this season - with 163 yards on 54 attempts, Henry is averaging a poor three yards-per-carry. Henry also only has three receptions through for games, with the majority of the receiving work out of the backfield going to Dion Lewis. Therefore, Henry should not be considered anything more than a desperation flex option going forward due to his team's lack of offensive potential and poor form so far this season.

Isaiah Crowell (RB, NYJ)

It seems as though this past week's performance was a big outlier for Isaiah Crowell. After double-digit rushing attempts in his first three games, Crowell was held to four rushes in the team's loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars. What is worse, Crowell ended up with a fat zero in rushing yards in his limited work. Out-rushed by Bilal Powell, Crowell looks to be in an ugly committee going forward. Additionally, the Jets figure to face many negative game-scripts going forward, giving Crowell a scary-low floor given his lack of receptions so far this season. Crowell only has five catches so far; most of the receiving work has gone to Powell. Ultimately, although Crowell should rebound from his poor performance last week, there are some significant concerns with the fifth-year running back going forward.

Chris Hogan (WR, NE)

For everyone who had a mid-round draft pick spent on Hogan, his performances so far this season have been extremely poor. Hogan has just eight catches so far this season for a total of 109 yards. Yes, Hogan got two touchdowns in Week 2 despite the team's loss to the Jaguars. However, this season the veteran wide receiver's play has largely been ineffective, as has much of the Patriots offense. With the return of slot receiver Julian Edelman, Hogan will likely fall to third in the pecking order behind Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Additionally, running back James White figures to continue seeing a fair share of the receiving work, giving Hogan a very low floor for the rest of the season. Hogan can be dropped in the majority of leagues - at the very least, he should definitely not be started.

Michael Crabtree (WR, BAL)

Since being signed to be the team's top wide receiver, Michael Crabtree has failed to see a large target share in the first four weeks of the season. Crabtree has 18 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown, which is not a terrible stat-line. However, the veteran wideout has been overshadowed by deep threat John Brown, who has fifteen catches for 338 yards and three touchdowns so far. Considering the nature of the Ravens offense, Crabtree looks like a secondary option on a low-volume offense. With Joe Flacco targeting his running backs and tight ends a good amount, there is only a limited space for Crabtree to find success. He looks like a good acquisition from a football perspective due to his ability to draw away coverage, but Crabtree is not worth the start in the majority of fantasy formats.

Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, ARI)

Ricky Seals-Jones had a season-high in yards this past week, with 52 yards on two catches. With an average of just over two catches a game, Seals-Jones has 123 yards and a touchdown. Although these are respectable numbers for a tight end, Seals-Jones now has to compete with returning veteran tight end Jermaine Gresham, who is fully back from his achilles injury that he suffered last year. Seals-Jones also plays on one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals, making him nothing more than a low-end TE2 who should not be started in the majority of leagues in the upcoming weeks of the 2018 season.

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