Touchdown Regression Candidates - Quarterback

September 1, 2018

Some quarterbacks coming off successful seasons could be in line for disappointment in 2018 if their TD rate sees negative regression. Justin Carter identifies QBs who could be draft day disappointments.

Throwing a lot of touchdowns? Good! Throwing a lot of touchdowns at a rate that surpasses either your average level or the league average level? Good when it happens, but maybe not so good the next year, when you can come crashing back down to Earth.

Not every quarterback is going to throw for Drew Brees-like numbers every season. If a player tosses touchdowns at a rate that seems surprising, there's a good chance that the next season will see those numbers regress back toward their normal levels. And on the flip side, some quarterbacks who suddenly struggle could see their numbers positively regress toward their career averages.

So, which players are candidates to see regression this year? Let's find out.

One Positive Regression Candidate

Let's start out on a good note with a look at a quarterback who could see positive regression this year.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans - 2.9 touchdown percentage

Marcus Mariota was a popular choice to be a breakout success in 2017, but it didn't end up happening. Now, entering his fourth season in the NFL, Mariota's fantasy value is extremely depressed, with Fantasy Football Calculator currently listing him as the 17th quarterback taken on average in re-draft leagues. After a 2016 season in which Mariota finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback, should we be judging him by those 2017 numbers or looking past them?

Well, the major drop off in his touchdown percentage last season suggests to me that Mariota will bounce back in 2018. After throwing touchdowns on 5.1 and 5.8 percent of his passes during his first two seasons, Mariota saw that number fall to just 2.9 percent in 2017. A rising interception rate -- 3.3 percent, up from two percent in 2016 -- can take some of the blame, as can a Titans offense that didn't have a great cast of weapons around Mariota. With DeMarco Murray taking a step back and receiving 20 fewer targets than the year before and Eric Decker not living up to the expectations, Mariota once again had to rely on just two main receiving options: tight end Delanie Walker and wide receiver Rishard Matthews. With Decker essentially repeating what Tajae Sharp provided the year before, the Titans offense couldn't move forward, and Mariota's struggles came in large part because stagnation in the NFL doesn't happen -- if things stay the same, then your performance ultimately takes a step back.

In 2018, though, the Titans have enough firepower around Mariota to suggest that his touchdown numbers will head back up. Walker and Matthews are still around, but the team also has a new running back who had three receiving touchdowns last season while catching over 90 percent of his targets in Dion Lewis, they have a promising second-year player who looked like he'd arrived in last year's playoffs with Corey Davis, and last year's third-round pick, Taywan Taylor, should help provide the team with another steady option. Mariota's 2018 numbers should look a lot more like his 2016 numbers, making him a steal at his current ADP.

And a Few Not-So-Positive Ones

It ain't all roses out here! Here are a few quarterbacks who could see a fall in their touchdown numbers in 2018.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 touchdown percentage

The leader among players who qualified for the leaderboard in touchdown percentage last season, Carson Wentz was an MVP front-runner before he tore his knee up, ending his season and his chances of leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. (Thankfully for them, Nick Foles took that job up and did a good job of it.)

There are a lot of things that factor into Wentz's touchdown regression this season. The big one is the ACL tear, which will likely cost Wentz at least a couple of games at the start of this season. He'll obviously not be throwing touchdowns those weeks, which will depress his season totals, but what about his ability to keep that rate up on a game-to-game basis?

Here's a chart of the touchdown percentage leaders this decade with their numbers the year they led the league and then their numbers the next season:

Every player saw their league-leading percentage drop, even Rodgers, who led the league in consecutive seasons but saw a drop in that second season, followed by another drop out of the top spot. For quarterbacks who weren't NFL legends, the drop was sharp. High touchdown rates aren't sustainable across multiple seasons for anyone but the best of the best. Carson Wentz could very well be among the best of the best, but as he enters his third year it's far too early to assume he'll be able to resist the regression that hits players with high touchdown percentages.

The Eagles also have an arguably worse supporting cast this season. Backup tight end Trey Burton -- who might have been the best backup tight end in the league and helped the team overcome the games Zach Ertz missed -- is in Chicago now. Alshon Jeffery is still recovering from rotator cuff surgery. Torrey Smith has been replaced by Mike Wallace, which looks like an upgrade on paper, but Wallace is getting into the latter stages of his time in the NFL and is coming off a season where he finished with the second-fewest yards of his career.

Alex Smith, Washington Redskins - 5.1 touchdown percentage

All seven of Tyreek Hill's receiving touchdowns last season came on plays of 30 or more yards. His big-play ability helped contribute to a season in which quarterback Alex Smith threw for more touchdowns (26) than he ever had in his career. Smith ended the season with a 5.1 touchdown percentage, his highest mark since he was a 49er back in 2012. Hill's field-stretching ability played a major role in that.

Now, Smith is in Washington, where he his big, downfield threat is...Josh Doctson? Paul Richardson? He also trades the trusty hands of tight end Travis Kelce for the oft-injured Jordan Reed, who will go down with a season-ending injury by Week 4 and give way to Vernon Davis, who is still sticking around Washington.

Smith has a chance to repeat some of last year's success -- for what it's worth, Kirk Cousins threw touchdowns on five percent of his throws on this same team last year -- but the track record of his career and the downgrade in offensive personnel make a repeat performance more unlikely than likely.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - 9.3 touchdown percentage

I am both fully invested in the Deshaun Watson hype and fully terrified of how much regression is going to sting this year. While Wentz led qualified players in touchdown percentage, Watson found the end zone on a higher percentage of his passes during his brief stint as the starting quarterback for the Texans.

First, look back at that chart from the Wentz section and then also apply a generous helping of #SmallSampleSizeAlert to the results.

Next, look at Watson's supporting cast. DeAndre Hopkins is great, but the number two option, Will Fuller, is a deep threat who hasn't shown over two seasons that he can be more than a deep threat. The other receiving options all come with question marks: rookie Keke Coutee is a rookie who missed most of the preseason/training camp, Braxton Miller hasn't shown a consistent ability to be an NFL wide receiver over two seasons, the tight ends are Ryan Griffin and two rookies named Jordan. I love Watson's potential and I think he'll have a great connection with Hopkins, but at the same time I know -- and you know too -- that that touchdown rate isn't sustainable. He'll throw more total touchdowns this year than he did last year just based on playing time alone, but that touchdown percentage likely drops down to somewhere around five percent, closer to what we saw from Marcus Mariota over his first two seasons in the league than what Watson gave us in 2017.

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