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Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Justin Carter outlines the reasons why Golladay will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
It's not every year that you get a player who creates an immense amount of hype, doesn't live up to it, and then goes out and generates more hype a year later, but that's where we are with Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay, everyone's favorite 2017 sleeper who finished as the WR69 last season in PPR but is currently being drafted in the top 60 of the position ahead of a lot of promising names.
So, why is Golladay getting drafted ahead of guys like Paul Richardson, Chris Godwin, and Tyler Lockett, who all should have bigger roles than him next season? Do we just not trust Golden Tate and Marvin Jones? Do we think that the loss of Eric Ebron is going to open up enough targets? Does Detroit's newfound commitment to the running game mean nothing to us?
Below are some reasons why Kenny Golladay isn't going to be that draft sleeper that you're looking for.
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Golladay's Road Blocks
I think the whole "there are X targets available" game is reductive, so I'm not going to buy into the logic that Eric Ebron's departure opens up 86 targets. Sure, after a 2016 season where Ebron had 85 targets it seems like you could pretty consistently guess what he'd get this year if he was still in Detroit, but that logic also ignores the other changes on the team: the addition of a pair of running backs, LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson, who should help Detroit commit more to the run game, the arrival of Luke Willson as a replacement for Ebron, the continued improvement of T.J. Jones, and the fact that Golladay already was targeted 48 times last year. It's hard to see a huge uptick in that number barring an injury.
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. both feel pretty entrenched as the team's top two receivers. Both guys were top 15 fantasy receivers last season and were targeted over 100 times apiece. If there's a weak link there, it's Jones having a catch rate of 57 percent, but he had an even lower catch rate in 2016 and that did affect his role once 2017 started. Detroit can live with Jones low catch rate because he's able to stretch the field for the Lions. Last season, he led the NFL in air yards for a receiver and was eighth in target distance and fifth in yards per target; Golladay, meanwhile, was sixth in yards per target.
Per PlayerProfiler, Golladay was on the field for 73.3 percent of the Lions snaps and was in the slot 7.9 percent of the time as he mostly worked on the outside. The problem with that in terms of expecting his fantasy value to rise this season is that Detroit already has a capable and established receiver, Jones, who does the things Golladay can do, and Jones has proven that he can do them better. In terms of versatility and the ability to make plays underneath as well, fellow second year receiver T.J. Jones might possess more value than we've been giving him, because he's shown an ability to play inside more than Golladay has. Detroit also brought in former Seahawks tight end Luke Willson, who hasn't shown a lot in his NFL career but has the size and speed to be an effective weapon for the Lions this year in Ebron's old role.
There's also the question of the running game. Detroit added LeGarrette Blount and rookie Kerryon Johnson to a rushing attack that ranked last in 2017 in yards per game and 31st in rushing attempts. Under Jim Caldwell, the Lions struggled to maintain a fantasy relevant running back. Will that change with Matt Patricia in town? We'll see -- the Lions still have Jim Bob Cooter as the offensive coordinator, but Blount gives them someone who can produce in the red zone.
In 2017, he had the ninth most carries inside the five yard line of any running back despite being just 27th overall in rushing attempts. Blount also isn't too far removed from the 2016 season, when he led the league in red zone carries with 71 and put an astonishing 12 of his 24 carries from inside the five yard line into the end zone. Add in Johnson, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry last year at Auburn, and the continued existence of Theo Riddick, who was 13th last season in receptions by receivers, and you get a Lions offense that should look a little more multi-dimensional this season, which isn't a good sign for Golladay.
Injuries can always change this picture, but Kenny Golladay right now doesn't seem to be in line to do too much more than he did in 2017. Tate and Jones have too tight a grip on the starting roles, LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson should increase the amount of rushing attempts from Detroit, which would then lower the amount that Matthew Stafford is asked to throw the ball, and Theo Riddick's receiving abilities mean the Lions don't have as much need for a third receiver to step up.
