X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Dereck Rodriguez and Willie Calhoun

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of Dereck Rodriguez and Willie Calhoun to determine whether they will continue to help fantasy rosters in 2018.

The moves continue to trickle in. Zach Britton is heading to the Bronx, where he figures to have zero fantasy value as the team's sixth-best reliever (if he proves he's healthy). Brad Brach got the first save opportunity in Baltimore after Britton left, but the team has a bunch of arms who could receive ninth inning consideration or get traded. You probably shouldn't make a significant investment in any of them until the situation sorts itself out.

The Red Sox also acquired Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Jalen Beeks. Eovaldi will be discussed in a future edition of this column. Beeks was already covered here. The short version is that he's turned himself into a viable fantasy streamer by adding a cutter to his arsenal. The Rays offer a better ballpark but less run support than the Sox, and might also use him in the second after an "opener" starts the game.

Below, we take a closer look at two names whose fantasy values might depend on what their clubs do at the deadline. Dereck Rodriguez is off to a hot start, but his current supporting cast hampers his already limited upside. Willie Calhoun has all of the potential in the world, but probably lacks a full-time role in Arlington unless the teams sells other assets.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dereck Rodriguez (SP, SF) - 29% Owned

Rodriguez has compiled an impressive 2.72 ERA in his 53 IP at the MLB level this season, but his underlying 4.29 xFIP suggests that he's not quite ace material. Still, he could be a safe patch for fantasy rosters trying to maintain a lead.

Rodriguez throws five different pitches. His fastball hovers around 93mph and has induced a lot of pop-ups this season (45.1% FB%, 30.4% IFFB%), helping "D-Rod" limit opposing batters to a .283 BABIP. It's also generated a lot of swinging strikes (11.8% SwStr%) and even an above average chase rate (35.7% O-Swing%). All of these traits are associated with high-spin fastballs, but Rodriguez's isn't special in that respect (2,072 RPM). Its 48.5% Zone% is also on the low side for a fastball, suggesting that some measure of regression is in order.

Rodriguez's second-most used pitch is a curve that primarily generates weak contact on the ground (63.2% GB%). It doesn't get called strikes (42.1% Zone%) or swinging strikes (8.2% SwStr%, 23.2% chase), so it doesn't offer much in the way of fantasy upside. It gives him a higher floor as a streamer, though.

Rodriguez is one of about a million pitcher who throws a sinker but probably shouldn't. Its 62.1% Zone% is by far the highest in his arsenal, but opposing hitters tattoo it (.348/.434/.587). It doesn't even induce that many grounders (45% GB%), making it difficult to put up with its 4.1% SwStr%.

Next up is a change that fails to stand out in any particular area. Its 48.9% Zone%, 12.2% SwStr%, and 32.8% chase rate are all fine, but nothing to write home about. Finally, his slider (called a cutter by some sources) is effectively a more traditional heater (59.8% Zone%, 7.2% SwStr%, 32.8% chase). It might be the key to succeeding at the MLB level.

Rodriguez's repertoire brings a lot of variety to the table, but he doesn't have anything with jaw-dropping upside. His MiLB career also suggests that he's more of a steady fourth SP on a big league team than a potential ace. He compiled a 3.94 ERA and 3.78 xFIP over 75 1/3 IP for Double-A Chattanooga in 2017 backed by a variety of boring peripherals (19.3% K%, 8.4% BB%, .294 BABIP, 10.5% HR/FB). Chattanooga is extremely hitter-friendly (1.223 runs factor from 2014-2016, 1.110 for HR and hits), so the season was probably a mild success.

San Francisco acquired him from the White Sox before the season and started him at Triple-A Sacramento. He was better by ERA (3.40) but worse by xFIP (4.20) over 50 1/3 IP, so it was a mixed bag. He improved his strikeout and walk numbers (25% K%, 5.2% BB%) while developing a severe case of gopheritis (17.5% HR/FB, 45% FB%). Sacramento is an extreme pitcher's park (0.756 runs factor, 0.781 for HR, 0.855 for hits), so environment can't be blamed for the homer issue.

Rodriguez's MLB numbers are more reminiscent of his Double-A work than his Triple-A stint. His 18.9% K% and 5.9% BB% are neither great nor terrible, while the long ball hasn't been an issue at all (5.5% HR/FB, 34.8% FB%). Even if his FB% starts to creep upward, San Francisco's pitcher-friendly ballpark is likely to mitigate the damage (96 runs scored factor for the last five years).

Overall, Pudge Rodriguez's son lacks the upside to catapult a mid-tier fantasy roster to the top of the standings. However, he's a safe performer in a friendly environment. He works as an injury fill-in if you're more concerned with protecting a lead than charging up the standings.

Verdict: Champ and Chump (depending on team needs)

Willie Calhoun (OF, TEX) - 17% Owned

Calhoun has been one of the more anticipated callups of the 2018 season, but he only has 19 PAs and a .167/.211/.333 line in the majors this year. He hit his first homer of the season on Tuesday night, but he can't be properly evaluated on his big league work.

That's fine, as his MiLB career clearly illustrates his strengths and flaws as a baseball player. He made his High Minor debut for the Dodgers Double-A affiliate in Tulsa back in 2016, slashing .254/.318/.469 with 27 big flies in 560 PAs. His power indicators were good (39.1% FB%, 15.7% HR/FB), suggesting that he wasn't a product of Tulsa's hitting-friendly stadium (1.166 HR factor). His 34.9% IFFB% was ridiculously high, even when you halve it to get a number on the same scale as MLB IFFB% rates. The resulting .242 BABIP limits Calhoun's batting average potential even though he seldom strikes out (11.6% K%, 8% BB%).

The Dodgers called Calhoun up to Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2017, where he did more of the same over 414 PAs. He slashed .298/.357/.574 with 23 bombs, maintaining his power indicators from Double-A (44.5% FB%, 15.9% HR/FB) despite a tougher hitting environment (0.859 HR factor). He also improved his plate discipline (11.8% K%, 8.7% BB%). Unfortunately, his batting average uptick had nothing to do with his IFFB% (30.3%).

The Rangers acquired Calhoun in the Yu Darvish trade midway through the 2017 campaign and assigned him to their Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock. Round Rock is almost perfectly neutral for power hitters (0.994 HR factor), and Calhoun still slashed .310/.345/.566 with eight homers over 120 PAs. His BB% declined to 5%, but his K% followed suit (10%). His 46.9% FB% and 17.4% HR/FB suggest that his raw power held constant, though his 37% IFFB% was even worse than his prior work. Again, the flaw wasn't apparent in his batting average.

The prospect of Calhoun's pop and K% on a rebuilding club had fantasy owners interested in him heading into the season, but 2018 has taken some shine off of the rose. He slashed .306/.360/.444 with eight homers over 408 PAs for Round Rock. His pop-up rate was still insane (36% IFFB%), so fantasy owners are likely to remain leery of Calhoun's batting average no matter how he does in the minors. Meanwhile, his HR/FB collapsed to 5.9%, causing a still-solid 40.8% FB% to amount to little. His plate discipline was fine (6.6% BB%, 9.8% K%), but where did that dependable power swing go?

Calhoun's defense is not well-regarded, so he'll have to find his power stroke if he wants to stick with the big league club. A Shin-Soo Choo trade would help immensely, but nothing is imminent on that front yet. The rush for Calhoun could be fast and furious if a regular role opens up though, so you might want to proactively claim him if you need upside.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Moritz Wagner

Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Jaxson Hayes

Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF