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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 7/4/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
Happy 4th of July, RotoBallers! I hope you all have a great holiday. While we're watching fireworks and grilling out, let's see if we can add some cash to our FanDuel wallets, too.
Right now in Vegas we are seeing some very lofty run projections on this Main slate, starting with the Rockies at 5.7, followed by the Reds at the same figure, Indians (5.5), Astros (5.5), Giants (5.4), and Blue Jays (5.2). As for moneyline favorites, the Indians are up top at -219, followed closely by the Dodgers (-209), Blue Jays (-177) and the Reds (-168).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/4/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Trevor Bauer - SP, at KCR ($12,000)
It is a steep price to pay, but Bauer has been elite this season and I feel he has the sturdiest and safest floor tonight while also having the highest ceiling. He gets a park upgrade, and is a huge moneyline favorite, should get ample run support and faces a team that scored the least amount of runs in the month of June. Tonight, the Royals implied run total is the second lowest on the Main slate at 3.6 and by my marks, Bauer has the highest strikeout projection at 7.5. In 2018, Bauer has posted a tremendous 11.3 K/9 and has done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard (0.7 HR/9).
Rich Hill - SP, vs PIT ($7,600)
Hill turned in a really strong performance his last trip out, and he's similarly priced and in a good position to keep that positive streak rolling tonight against Pittsburgh in his pitcher-friendly home park. It's very encouraging to see that he was healthy enough to throw 110 pitches and complete 6 2/3 innings last time, as it not only shows us he's feeling good, but certainly increases his potential points ceiling (something he's usually capped by in this regard with 5 inning starts). His opponent tonight features the lowest projected run total at 3.3 and the Dodgers are heavy moneyline favorites at -209. While I'd still prefer using him just in tournaments, those are good indicators he can be used in cash. For the season, he's posted a 11.1 K/9 and faces a lineup with a 27% strikeout clip against southpaws.
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Joey Votto - 1B, vs CWS ($4,300)
Dylan Covey has shown some improvement this season, but I still see Votto getting the best of him in this matchup and Vegas sees the Reds putting up 5+ runs tonight. Votto has really impressive with his batted ball profile over the past two weeks, with his hard hit rate above 50% and average batted ball distance over 250 feet. He also owns an incredible wOBA split at .429.
DJ LeMahieu - 2B, vs SFG ($4,100)
LeMahieu at home in Coors Field against a left-handed pitcher is nearly always a matchup you want to key in on. His wOBA and ISO splits against southpaws, .396 and .223, respectively, are really strong and Suarez isn't a pitcher to fear in this matchup. Hitting at the top of the order - which is projected for 5.7 runs - also provides some real value.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, vs SFG ($5,100)
Speaking of Coors Field matchups against southpaws, Arenado's numbers trump that of LeMahieu and Trevor Story's, which is pretty damn impressive. He owns a .575 wOBA and .455 ISO splits, which is truly the elite of the elite, and he just so happens to have really strong batted ball numbers over the past two weeks - highlighed by a 52% hard hit rate and 48% fly ball rate.
Chris Taylor - SS, vs PIT ($3,000)
I'll note that I am a fan of using Story at this position, but affording the Colorado infield is going to be quite difficult. Taylor is my second ranked shortstop for the night and he's a great value at this price. He's hot right now producing 45+ points total over his last two games and draws a good matchup here. For the season against right-handed pitching he owns a .352 wOBA and a .202 ISO.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
George Springer - OF, at TEX ($3,700)
Springer getting a park upgrade in the Texas heat against Mike Minor is really attractive - as is his bargain price. His wOBA split against lefties is impressive at .373 and Minor struggles with right-handed power.
Teoscar Hernandez - OF, vs NYM ($3,500)
Finding powerful outfielders under $4k tonight is essential, and Teoscar and Springer fit that profile for us. Hernandez has a strong .388 wOBA split and a massive .288 ISO mark.
