RADIO
Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 6/29/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
It appears to be a beautiful day across the country and we've got a lot of delightful pitching matchups that make this Main slate tonight very enticing. The Twins and Cubs unfortunately don't get to join the party as their first pitch time is at 5pm, but the other 14 games will be played under the lights.
Before we dive into player selection and analysis, let's take a look at favorites, run expectancy and line movement. The Mariners are the biggest favorites of the 14-game Main slate at -204, followed by the Blue Jays -199, Astros -183, Mets -173, and the Indians at -171. Those are pretty heavy favorites to say the least, and both the Blue Jays and Mets had significant movement (in their favor) this morning. For run expectancy, it starts with the Rangers at 5.7, followed by the Angels 5.5, Jays 5.4, Yankees 5.0, Reds 4.9 and Indians at 4.9. Significant movement for the Jays, who has originally opened with a 4.9 mark, as well as the Yankees, who had opened at 4.7.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/29/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Jacob deGrom - SP, at MIA ($11,700)
The mark of "top pitcher" tonight appears to be a three-man race between deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. They're all in good spots, priced as such, and have fairly similar point projection. deGrom gets the nod from me as his opponent, the Marlins, have just a 3.0 implied run total and their lineup has a woeful .287 wOBA split against right-handed pitching this season. Cole is just behind him as a matchup with the Rays is fairly similar, and Bauer - who has been tremendous - runs into an Oakland lineup that has been running hot lately. deGrom gets a park upgrade and faces a foe he's dominated before and the Mets have moved to big-time favorites in Vegas at -173. For the season, deGrom owns a 1.07 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 and he's limited hard contact to just 31% while inducing groundballs 48% of the time. deGrom can be deployed in cash and tournament formats this evening with confidence.
Rich Hill - SP, vs COL ($7,400)
The mid-tier today is pretty murky. There are a handful of quality guys in so not so quality spots, and another group with talent that are very volatile when it comes to DFS point totals. I like Hill in tournaments tonight because the possibility for high a high strikeout total and run prevention is there. Digging through Hill's game logs, you can see that it nearly always comes down to run prevention from him. He can compile a solid 5-7 strikeouts, but beating his price implied total usually comes down to keeping the opponents to two runs or less, especially as he never pitches deep into games. His opponent tonight, the Rockies, have an implied run total of just 3.4 and their projected lineup owns one of the highest strikeout rates on the entire slate at 28.7%.
Also Consider: Gerrit Cole - SP, at TBR ($11,500)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Joey Votto - 1B, vs MIL ($4,300)
Mr. Votto is due for a breakout performance and I like the fact that Vegas bettors have been pounding the Reds' OVER, moving their implied run total to one of the highest of the evening at 4.9. In this mini-slump he's been in, his batted ball data is incredible - 53% hard hit rate, an average batted ball distance of 255 feet and an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour. His splits against righties are also very strong (.446 wOBA, .207 ISO) and he faces a pitcher who has allowed 1.59 HR/9 to lefties this season.
Yoan Moncada - 2B, at TEX ($3,300)
Moncada has been collecting the hits this past week, but his teammates haven't been picking him up and that's left him below his price implied total a few times. That should change today in a great matchup in one of the best hitting environments as the White Sox (4.9 implied run total) take on perhaps the worst pitcher on the slate. The positive side of Moncada not hitting value is that we get him at a fairly bargain price today despite the aforementioned positives about the matchup. He owns a .339 wOBA and .213 ISO split for the year and has a 47% hard hit rate in his last 14 starts.
Matt Carpenter - 3B, vs ATL ($4,000)
Carpenter has been on an absolute tear and he should be able to continue wreaking havoc tonight. The leadoff man and his Cardinals teammates have a desireable 4.7 run projection and Teheran struggles with lefty hitters. Carpenter enters this game with a .378 wOBA and .233 ISO split on the season and his batted ball data in the past two weeks is nothing short of remarkable, highlighted by a 58% hard hit rate and just a 16% groundball rate.
Nick Ahmed - SS, vs SFG ($2,600)
We're going to have find value spots that don't sacrifice much upside on a slate like this where the top pitching options are expensive and there are home run threats at every position. Enter Mr. Ahmed, who hits in the two-spot in this solid Arizona lineup and gets to face off against a southpaw - his favorite. Ahmed, too, has a strong hard hit percentage of late at 42% in the past two weeks and his split differentials are huge. His marks against southpaws for the year stand at .359 in wOBA and .259 in ISO.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Teoscar Hernandez - OF, vs DET ($3,100)
Tesocar versus a soft-tossing lefty? Sign me up twice. Hernandez is a great value tonight, especially considering the home run upside. He has really good splits in both wOBA and ISO (.339, .296, respectively) and has desireable batted ball data over the past two weeks. A 44% hard hit rate in that stretch, paired with a 40% fly ball rate and a 24% line drive rate.
Mike Trout - OF, at BAL ($5,100)
Opposing starting pitcher David Hess is going to have his hands full with the top of this Angels lineup tonight in a very hitter friendly park environment. He's allowed slugging percentages above .460 to hitters on both sides of the plate, along with a 1.8 HR/9 mark to righties and a 2.11 HR/9 mark to lefties. And, of course, Trout's splits are tremendous at a .449 wOBA and a .311 ISO mark.
