Do You Have the Need for Speed?

June 9, 2018

Jason Katz looks at stolen base threats and speed demons to determine their fantasy baseball value for the remainder of the 2018 MLB season and to see if they should be buys, sells, or holds.

A staple of many fantasy baseball rosters is the speed specialist. In my second year playing fantasy baseball, way back in 2004, I was obsessed with Scott Podsednik. He stole 70 bases that year and was well worth dealing with the .244 batting average and mere 85 runs and 39 RBIs. But that's because Scotty Pods stole 70 bases.

Any player that steals more than 50 bases is worth owning. Even a player who is a drain on other stats, as long as you build your team properly and compensate elsewhere, having a player that wins an entire category by himself can be tremendously valuable.

The question is what do you do with speedsters that fall victim to one of the oldest proverbs in baseball: you can't steal first base?

And... They're Off!

Travis Jankowski (OF, SD)

The Padres' young outfielder has stolen 10 bases in just 122 plate appearances. Over a full season, he would steal nearly 50 bases. Regardless of his other stats, he's worth owning. As it stands now, he's hitting over .300. However, his underlying stats are quite concerning. His BABIP is .043 higher than his career average. His line drive rate is down, while his ground ball rate is up. He's also making hard contact at a putrid 14.6% rate. Jankowski's speed will keep him relevant, but his value is about as high as it will be right now. If you own him, try and see if you can get anything useful for him. If not, ride the wave for as long as the stats that matter for you (average, runs, steals) hold up. Once the inevitable regression hits, don't be afraid to cut bait.

Mallex Smith (OF, TB)

I've made Mallex Smith a featured member of my weekly category streamers column in the speed section. However, he hasn't appeared in a couple weeks because of the regression I saw coming. Mallex was just getting on base at an unsustainable clip. His BABIP was, at one point, over .400. It is now down to .346 and his .300 average is now .264. He also still only has 11 steals in 200 plate appearances. Over a full season, we're looking at around 30 steals. Those are fine speed numbers, but nowhere near category dominating levels and certainly not lofty enough to justify the hit to other categories. I owned him myself in two leagues and cut bait a couple weeks ago. You should, too.

Jose Peraza (2B, CIN)

After struggling as a hyped prospect last season, Jose Peraza started off this season strong and appeared to be on his way to a breakout. With his average sitting at .264 and his stolen base count at a measly nine, that hasn't continued. While Peraza was a speed demon in the minors, he's not run nearly as much in the majors. Peraza only stole 23 bases in 518 plate appearances last season and is currently on pace for just around 20 this season. Peraza's peripherals don't even matter in this analysis. He is not stealing enough bases to justify being owned.

Delino DeShields (OF, TEX)

In 2012, while paying A ball, Delino Deshields stole 83 bases in 523 plate appearances. That's incredible. No doubt he has tremendous speed. But where has it been in the majors? He's never played a full season, but was on pace for multiple 40 steal seasons in the past. This year, he's stealing bases at a 30 steal pace, which he won't get to anyway as he's already missed some time. He's hitting .205. For you to justify that sort of average, he'd have to be stealing at least 50, if not 60. Drop him.

Michael A. Taylor (OF, WAS)

It is important to remember that Michael A. Taylor is only an every day starter because Adam Eaton can't stay healthy. He is also hovering around the Mendoza line at .206 while on pace for a similar amount of steals as Deshields above. When Eaton returns, he will immediately take his job back. Taylor is fast, but not worth anything other than situation starts when you need a steal.

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN)

Last, but certainly not least, is the man I really want to talk about. Billy Hamilton. Have you ever seen the analysts on television conduct an exercise where they "build" their optimal baseball player based on traits of various other players? I think if you were to do the opposite and try and construct the worst possible offensive player, you would literally create Billy Hamilton. The main things you look for in an offensive player are an ability to get on base, power, and speed. Ideally, you want at least one of those, if not two, and, in the cases of the best players, all three. Hamilton has a .294 BABIP this season, right around his career average of .304, yet he's hitting .202. He is striking out 30% of the time. He has just two home runs. And, most embarrassingly, he has 10 stolen bases in 205 plate appearances. Hamilton's numbers extrapolate to fewer than 30 steals. So, to recap, Billy Hamilton is a hitter that can't get on base, doesn't hit for power, and doesn't run. What exactly does he do well? Even his UZR is significantly down. He literally does nothing well. His 70% ownership percentage is a blight on fantasy owners everywhere, and, until just recently, I was part of the problem. Cut Billy Hamilton in even the deepest of leagues. He is a truly horrendous baseball player that has no business being on any fantasy team.

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