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Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 5/18/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
I feel like we deserve this big, beautiful slate tonight with all the rain-outs and mediocre options we've dealt with throughout the week. All 15 games tonight are in the Main slate, so there is much to discuss. Unfortunately, we are not without weather concerns, but at least there will be other options to fall back on. I'd advise checking weather as close to lineup lock (or game lock) as much as possible, just to be safe. A lot of people got burned by the Chicago-Atlanta matchup last night.
What are the oddsmakers in Vegas feeling for tonight? Well, they certainly see some runs being scored, as six teams have run projections of five or greater and a handful of teams are not far behind. It's quite the spectrum today, as we also have quite a few at 3.5 or lower. The teams above five - Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Blue Jays and Cubs - are good stack targets and a few more may emerge throughout the day. On the moneyline, the Nationals are the biggest favorites at -200, followed by the Braves at -188, the Cubs at -170 and Yankees right at -170 as well.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/18/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer - SP, vs LAD ($11,600)
I flirted long and hard with making Jacob deGrom my top option to use the extra $1,600 on batters, but it's hard to trust a guy who was pulled in his last start after just 45 pitches. deGrom has a good matchup, but 10k is a steep price to pay with that uncertainty. And, of course, this is Max Max - rostering him gives us a real strurdy floor and a high, high ceiling. He has been on a tear on the diamond and from a DFS perspective, too. He's surpassed his price implied value in eight of his nine starts this season - including seven in a row. Scherzer also has the highest SwStr% in the league at 17.6% and the second highest K rate at 40%. He's been dominant in all facets of the game, as shown in his 2.11 SIERA. This Dodgers lineup got a little stronger with the return of Justin Turner, but they've still been pretty abysmal when you consider the talent they have. The Dodgers are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs and the Nationals are -200 favorites on the moneyline. You can use Max in all formats tonight.
Jake Arrieta - SP, at STL ($8,200)
I'll be deploying Max Max in a few GPP lineups tonight, but there's no doubt having him at the top of your lineup is going for force you to miss on some of your favorite bats. Searching for something cheaper, I landed on my old friend Jake. I like Arrieta for tournaments tonight, and he's an arm that I think will go overlooked, despite the upside. After a few shaky performances, Arrieta looked pretty damn good in his last performance. He topped 100 pitches (after back to back starts with that count in the 70s), his fastball velocity was up, and he is inducing a lot of soft contact and ground balls. Tonight, he gets a park upgrade and faces an offense with a lot of right-handed hitters, which should work to his advantage in limiting potential damage (right-handed batters against Arrieta in 2017-18: .259 wOBA, .122 ISO). And last, but certainly not least, the Cardinals projected lineup has a 26% K rate against right-handed pitching this season. There's certainly some risk here, but the reward could be great.
Also Consider: Sean Newcomb - SP, vs MIA ($9,200)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Jose Abreu - 1B, vs TEX ($3,400)
First base is absolutely loaded with goodness today, and not just because we have all teams in action. Jose Abreu is the best value of my favorites in that group, as he's a bargain for the upside he brings. He also has a strong matchup against a pitcher that has allowed a .440 wOBA to his opponents over his last two starts. Moore should have trouble with Abreu, who hits southpaws very well, posting a .419 wOBA and .287 ISO splits over the past year.
Brian Dozier - 2B, vs MIL ($3,700)
A matchup at home against a southpaw is the perfect spot for Dozier to break out of this mini production slump he's in. I call out production as he is still making good contact during this time, but he's run into some bad batted ball luck and the DFS results have been uninspiring in that stretch. Dozier is fantastic against lefties, too, posting a .448 wOBA and .301 ISO over the past 12 months.
Kris Bryant - 3B, at CIN ($4,800)
Homer Bailey in Cincinnati is, without question, my favorite pitcher to pick on. Kris Bryant is going to pick on him quite a bit today with his bat and his .408 wOBA split. Bryant's price is lofty, but the ceiling is really high today and he has great lineup context, too. Over the past 11 games, he's been crushing the ball with a 52% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 94 mph.
Trevor Story - SS, at SFG ($3,800)
Trevor Story against a soft-tossing lefty - it's lock and load time! Using the Rockies away from Coors isn't as glamorous, sure, but Derek Holland is a pitcher who tends to get lit up and Story's numbers against southpaws are fantastic. Over the course of the 2017-18 seasons, Story owns a .390 wOBA and .295 ISO split against lefties. On top of that, his recent hard hit rate of 38% is pretty good, and the 50% fly ball rate is attractive as we're rostering him here for the potential home run(s).
Also Consider: Didi Gregorious - SS, at KCR ($3,800)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Joey Gallo - OF, at CWS ($3,400)
Let's try this again, Mr. Gallo. The big lefty was popular last night and disapointed, but he's in a prime spot for a bounce back against the young right-hander. Gallo has massive home run upside, highlighted by his .328 ISO and .537 slugging percentage. He also does a great job with his launch angle contact and has an average batted ball distance of 233 feet.
Kyle Schwarber - OF, at CIN ($3,800)
Hopefully Schwarber is sitting dead-red tonight because he's likely to see a lot of fastballs from Homer Bailey and he has an expected wOBA over .400 against that pitch type and a .312 ISO split against right-handers dating back to the start of the 2017 season. Over the last three Cubs' series, Kyle posted a 42% hard hit rate.
Also Consider: Matt Joyce - OF, at TOR ($2,800)
