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Matt Wilkes examines three starting pitchers (SP) off to surprising hot starts in the 2018 MLB season. He advises fantasy baseball owners to buy or sell based on each player's profile and outlook.
The beginning of the season is one of the toughest times of the year for fantasy baseball managers. Reading into small sample sizes is a tough task, as it can set you up for success the rest of the year if you make a smart waiver wire or set you back by giving up on a player too early.
Pitchers are some of the hardest players to evaluate in the early going. One bad start can make their overall numbers look terrible, and a handful of good outings can send fantasy managers rushing to the waiver wire. And if you’re lucky enough to win the claim on them, you have the tough choice of deciding whether the hot start is legitimate or trading the player away while his value is high.
Luckily, we’re here to help you out with that decision. Several unexpected hurlers have gotten off to fantastic starts in 2018. But are the numbers for real or should you expect regression? Below are some answers to those questions, and whether you should buy or sell the following surprise pitchers.
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Are These Hot Starts for Real?
Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
The best left-handed pitcher in the game is Clayton Kershaw. But you could easily argue the best southpaw so far in 2018 is Patrick Corbin. After flirting with a perfect game on last week, Corbin now holds a sparkling 4-0 record and a 1.89 ERA through five starts. That has to be a fluke, though, right? Not so much.
Corbin’s FIP is 1.99 and his xFIP is even better at 1.69. Continuing to use the slider as his primary pitch after it worked well for him in 2017, Corbin has taken his game to the next level. He currently ranks fourth in baseball with a 39.3% strikeout rate, and batters are whiffing at his slider a ridiculous 32.7% of the time they swing at it. Corbin has also added a curveball to his repertoire this year, giving batters two breaking pitches to worry about. Even better: his walk rate continues to decline, sitting at just 4.9%, and his average exit velocity (86.0 mph) ranks 17th among 123 starting pitchers with 50 or more batted balls allowed.
He likely won’t strike out batters at this level or maintain a sub-two ERA all year -- he’s allowed a BABIP of just .200 and a strand rate of 84.3% -- but the changes in his pitch mix are real and should result in lasting success. His value is rising with each start, meaning now is the time to buy. That said, Corbin owners who can turn his hot start into an asset with a longer track record of success should certainly do so, though you can feel confident holding onto him if the trade offers are substandard.
Verdict: Buy/Hold
Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
Few pitchers had a more disappointing season in 2017 than Rick Porcello. The 2016 American League Cy Young winner gave up a whole bunch of home runs (38 in 203 ⅓ innings) en route to a disappointing 11-17 record and 4.65 ERA. Did he return to his pre-2016 form, a solid but unspectacular pitcher who had never quite lived up to his once-high prospect potential? Early returns in 2018 suggest that answer is no.
Through four starts, Porcello has a spotless record (4-0) and 1.40 ERA in 25 ⅔ innings. His strikeout rate (23.0%) sits well above his career mark (16.7%) and he’s walked only one batter. The control has always been there, but can he realistically sustain the strikeouts? It appears a change in pitch mix has at least partially led to the increase and may help him .
Porcello has used his sinker (40.5% vs. 25.9% in 2017), slider (23.2% vs. 16.9%), and changeup more (15.4% vs. 8.3%) in 2018, while reducing his usage of the four-seam fastball and curveball. Those three pitches all have drop to them and, accordingly, Porcello has seen a significant increase in groundball rate (49.3% vs. 39.2%). That’s helped him suppress the home run ball so far, as he’s yet to allow a round-tripper.
Like Corbin, Porcello’s early improvement appears tied to a tangible change in his repertoire. The league will presumably adjust after seeing him for a second time, but his start appears legitimate by most metrics. On the other hand, Porcello has always been wildly inconsistent, and his 2017 will probably have most owners hesitant to give up much of value in a trade, making him a hold for now. If you're a non-Porcello owner, it's worth sending out some feelers to see if you can get him cheap before he has a chance to fully re-establish his value.
Verdict: Hold
Ian Kennedy, Royals
If you think Porcello has been inconsistent throughout his big-league career, Ian Kennedy is certainly in the same neighborhood. He’s been an on-again, off-again fantasy player for most of his career, and after an abysmal 2017 (5.38 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 5.25 xFIP), he’s seemingly flipped the switch back to ‘on’ once more.
With last year’s hamstring injury behind him, Kennedy is 1-2 with a 2.35 ERA in his first 23 innings of 2018 and is up to 44% ownership in Yahoo leagues after going undrafted in most formats. The first numbers you look at with the early bright performances are strikeouts and walks. Kennedy is trending in the right direction in both areas, as his strikeouts are up (22.0% vs. 20.0% in 2017) and his walks are down (7.0% vs. 9.3%). The biggest positive of Kennedy’s start is the resurgence of his changeup, which holds a 1.2 pVAL after coming in at -2.1 last season.
Red flags appear all over the place, however. Despite his increase in strikeout rate, he’s not missing more bats. In fact, his swinging strike rate has decreased to 7.5%, well below his career average (9.4%) and even last year’s pedestrian percentage (8.9%). Batters are also making contact on 84.3% of their swings against Kennedy, well above the league average (76.4%) and his career rate (79.6%).
The quality of contact he’s allowing is discouraging, too. Kennedy’s hard-contact rate sits at 42.3% (11th-worst among qualified starters), and he’s allowing an abysmal average exit velocity of 91.4 mph. Given his extremely low groundball rate (33.3%), home runs will likely be a problem for him again after allowing more than 30 in each of the last three seasons.
Kennedy has been an unexpected source for strikeouts in the early going of 2018, but his most recent outing (five innings, four earned runs, three walks, two home runs allowed) may be a sign of things to come. Now is the time to sell high if you can get anything of value in return for him.
Verdict: Sell
