Dynasty Team Analysis - New England Patriots

Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft.

Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.

The Patriots, always one of the most dominant teams in the NFL, took charge of the regular season with a 13-3 record only to suffer defeat in a heart-wrenching fashion against the Philadelphia Eagles. With Bill Belichick trying to work his magic for another great season, it seems that the Patriots will once again be one of the teams to beat, making them a very intriguing unit to analyze from a fantasy perspective.

New England Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 13-3 (1st, AFC East)

Fantasy Leaders (taken from FantasyData.com)

QB: Tom Brady - 295.88 (QB3)
RB: Dion Lewis - 165 (RB12)
WR: Brandin Cooks - 156.2 (WR7)
TE: Rob Gronkowski - 158.4 (TE1)
IDP: Trey Flowers - 112 (DL11)

Quarterback

Although he has been one of the most efficient and high-scoring quarterbacks for over a decade, Tom Brady is officially on the wrong side of 40, making him a lower draft option in dynasty startups. However, Brady has still maintained that he will be able to play well into his 40's, making him a sneaky draft-late option at the position.

Brady is currently in the 8th tier of quarterbacks in Rotoballer's own dynasty rankings. Coming in at pick 102 overall, there is certainly value to be had with the aging superstar as he has shown that he is able to put up huge production despite his advanced age. Just look at his numbers last year: 4,577 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. Brady led the league in passing yards and was one of the key factors to ensuring the Patriots won the majority of their games. In most fantasy formats, drafting an amazing quarterback on an amazing team seems like a no-brainer to me.

However, in dynasty leagues, there is plenty of debate over where Brady will end up as draft season approaches. If you are looking at pure numbers, Brady is a near-lock to produce at a high level for at least the next season based on how he has been playing in recent years. At a mid-round pick, that provides solid value assuming you can tie in a younger high-upside option like Mitch Trubisky or take a chance on mediocre if unspectacular quarterbacks like Andy Dalton or Case Keenum, just in case. By doing so, you remove yourself from the necessity of taking a signal-caller early and can spend that draft capital on a skill position player. Furthermore, you aren't tying yourself down to the risk that drafting a quarterback earlier entails: if Brady suddenly stops producing, there are paths you can take to ensure that you don't miss out on your next franchise quarterback, especially given this year's draft class.

At the end of the day, Tom Brady is Tom Brady: don't discount him because of his age just yet.

Running Back

With the way New England have been using their running backs in recent years, it is extremely difficult to tell who will rise up above the rest in this running-back-committee-from-hell. Last year, Dion Lewis actually managed to take the reigns at the end of the season and finished higher than most New England running backs usually do (except for you, LeGarrette Blount, you touchdown God). Lewis ended up with over a 1,000 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns and was on the edge of RB1 status. But remember, Lewis wasn't even getting more than a few carries here and there until the back half of the season.

Unfortunately, most of the attention early on was on Mike Gillislee; with three touchdowns in his first game, it looked as if Gillislee was set to become a super version of the previous year's running back from New England (LeGarrette, how could we forget). However, after some costly fumbles, Gillislee quickly faded from fantasy relevance and was replaced by James White and Rex Burkhead as the two ancillary pieces to Lewis. With both backs snagging three touchdowns in the air and Burkhead adding another five on the ground, it seemed as if, just like every year, nobody could figure out how the running backs would perform.

This is what makes New England's backfield so frustrating. It is a source of fantasy gold, where elite production can be attained week-in and week-out. The problem is that you only get elite production if you add up the totals of all of the New England running backs put together.

With Dion Lewis leaving for Tennessee in free agency, the Patriots have brought in Jeremy Hill to the mix. Hill is not known for his skilled running, but he is known for having a knack for finding the endzone, with 29 touchdowns on the ground in his first three years. Last year was a disappointment for Hill (and the Bengals offense as a whole), and it seemed as if Hill was destined to play a bit-part role in whatever offense he landed on. However, the Patriots have a way of turning their players back into superstars, and Hill could be one of those players. With White, Gillislee, and Burkhead still in the fold, it is a long path to Hill's rise as the next workhorse back in New England, but Belichick has shown that he is willing to play players who can play if they show him they can be worth something to the team. Hill has the chance to do that, and at worst is a redzone back that will likely pile on touchdowns. Consider Hill, White, and Burkhead late in dynasty drafts, as you have as good of a chance as any to pick the next New England tailback.

Wide Receiver

The wide receiver tree of New England looks to be almost as competitive as the running backs this year. However, as we have seen in the past, there is opportunity for several Patriots receivers to be in the upper tiers of fantasy performers when all is said and done. Let's start off with Brandin Cooks: although he didn't become the Randy-Moss-esque deep threat that many fantasy owners envisioned when they saw that he had been traded from the Saints, Cooks still finished with over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns and led the Patriots wide receivers in receiving yards as well as touchdowns. Cooks will likely come at a steep cost in dynasty leagues, but remember: HE IS ONLY 24 YEARS OLD. With four seasons already under his belt and three straight 1,000 yard campaigns, Cooks looks to have a long and healthy career ahead of him and should therefore be considered a premium asset in dynasty startups this summer, especially given the play exhibited by him and Brady when they were on the same page last year.

Behind Cooks, there looks to be the return of Julian Edelman to the fold. While Edelman is on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off of a season-long injury, his connection with Tom Brady is undeniable. However, for dynasty formats, this makes him a risky option as he is sort of tied to Brady's production long-term. Therefore, don't spend anything more than a late round pick on the speedy slot receiver; he could produce next season, but anything beyond that will be tied to how his body copes to the demands of the league.

With several interesting secondary options behind Cooks and Edelman, Chris Hogan headlines the rest of the bunch as he was able to be the big-play threat that Brady needed at times. However, his performances were erratic over the course of the season, and he shouldn't be trusted as a solid option given that he has turned 30 years old. Malcolm Mitchell looks to return from injury this year, and he showed some flashes of greatness in his rookie campaign. Keep an eye on him as a dynasty sleeper with some serious potential to be a possession receiver in the Patriots offense. Finally, Phillip Dorsett has yet to break out in the league and should be considered a bust at this point; but with the Patriots offense, who really knows what will happen. The former first round pick could get his chance in the spotlight in the coming years, but it is unlikely that it will be as a Patriot given the plethora of options in front of him.

New free agency signings Cordarrelle Patterson and Kenny Britt also provide some intrigue in dynasty formats. Patterson is an interesting gadget player who could create some hype as a deep sleeper in dynasty formats given his first-round pedigree and big-play ability while Britt is a season removed from his 1,000 yard campaign with the Rams. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that the pair will be anything more than role players given the crowded nature of the Patriots offense and they shouldn't be seriously considered in dynasty formats.

Tight End

We all know Rob Gronkowski is an elite option when he is on the field. Last season's 1,000 yard campaign (and eight touchdowns too) is actually below Gronk's average when he is healthy. However, Gronkowski has been victim to several big injuries in his career and is currently contemplating retiring from football - never a good sign for dynasty owners. Regardless of the retirement rumors, Gronkowski is still an elite option when healthy and should occupy the top spot in most dynasty startups, but keep in mind that his career may be closer to the end than it is to the middle.

Behind Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen was brought in last season to provide cover for Gronk and work in twin TE sets, but he failed to produce with just ten catches on the season. If Gronkowski is out, Allen will likely be thrust into the spotlight as the starting tight end and that makes him an interesting flyer option in dynasty formats. Behind Allen is Will Tye, who should be considered undraftable given that there is uncertainty over whether or not he will even be on the final roster come fall.

IDP

The Patriots defense is perhaps the one spot on the team that is not the best for dynasty owners, as the team spends so much on its offense that it seems as if they pull the defense together from nowhere each season. Trey Flowers, Devin McCourty, and Patrick Chung were the only players to top 100 points, and the trio should be considered decent options at best in re-draft formats with Flowers being the best option in dynasty leagues.

Malcolm Butler has moved on to the Titans, leaving Stephon Gilmore as the clear number one cornerback option on the team. However, he should not be considered in the top tier of dynasty DB's due to the erratic nature of the Patriots defense. With defensive end Adrian Clayborn coming in via free agency, look for the majority of Patriots players to provide solid, if unspectacular defensive performances as the team leans on its offense for much of the 2018 season in the same way that it did in 2016 and 2017.

Draft Results

Offense

The Patriots made a statement in the first round with the drafting of Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel. Michel looks to be an electric back at the next level, and the high draft capital could mean a heavy workload early on in his career. Michel is a lock for the early first round in dynasty leagues and has the potential to become a top-tier running back for the Patriots.

Elsewhere, the 7th round pick of Danny Etling, LSU's quarterback, is intriguing. However, he is not likely to be the Patriots next quarterback after Tom Brady and therefore should not be worth an investment in dynasty leagues.

Defense

With the controversial pick of Duke Dawson in the first round, the Patriots hopefully got a starting caliber corner for the team. Furthermore, two linebacker selections in Ja'Whaun Bentley and Christian Sam demonstrate the team's address of their needs in the draft; hopefully, one of them could become a long-term IDP option at the position.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy