RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~ 375
CURRENT ADP: 413
ANALYSIS: Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Devon Travis is injury-prone. That may actually be a huge understatement, as the Blue Jays second baseman has not had a single healthy major league season in three tries. Knee and shoulder ailments have forced Travis to miss literally hundreds of games in that span. So, if you are banking on getting anything out of him, you need to check yourself.
That said, there is a clear opportunity for profit here. Travis is not even being drafted in most standard leagues based on his ADP. With second base looking very thin outside of the top five or six options, you could do worse than taking a late round flier on a guy who has proven he can produce at the position. In 867 big league plate appearances, Travis has slashed .292/.331/.462 with a 112 wRC+ and a .170 ISO, certainly nothing to shake a stick at. While the sample sizes have been fairly small, Travis has actually shown gradual improvements in his batted ball profile since his 2015 rookie season. His line drive rate rose from 21.6% to 26.4%, his fly ball rate from 28.4% to 36.5% and his ground ball rate fell from 50.0% to 37.2%. Combine those solid ratios above with a drop in soft contact and a rise in hard contact and you can see why many still see potential - if he can stay healthy.
The Blue Jays have added significant infield depth this offseason with the acquisitions of Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz, two players who can play at the keystone and contribute offensively. However, Travis remains the preferred option to start, and he should get the bulk of the at bats provided he stays off the disabled list. Furthermore, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has given the impression that Travis will be his leadoff hitter, opening the opportunity for more runs scored. The extra security behind him will likely result in a few more days off for the fourth year pro, but if that means overall better health, he will see an uptick in at bats and could reach 450-500 for the first time in his career. Ultimately, there is zero risk here with where he is being selected - or not selected - in drafts.
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