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Drafting relief pitchers is always tough. Should you go for the elite closers and try and secure saves, or are you better off using those high picks on a hitter or starting pitcher and adding cheap saves later?
The reality is no strategy is better than the other 100% of the time, but the old adage of being able to find saves on the waiver wire during the season definitely has some truth to it. Closers change frequently due to injury, performance and trades so the investment is risky.
If you’re willing to put saves on the back burner early in the season and gamble on a few speculative bullpen arms - or if your league uses holds as part of the equation - here are some guys you may want to target:
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Relievers to Watch
Drew Steckenrider, Marlins
Playing for the Marlins does Drew Steckenrider no favours for his celebrity but the bottom line is this is a potential elite reliever. A converted starter, Steckenrider began his transition to the bullpen in 2016 in High-A. In just 10 innings of work he decimated opposing hitters to the tune of a 0.61 xFIP (zero earned runs allowed) with 17 strikeouts and a 64.3% ground ball rate. Steckenrider was moved up to Double-A and was nearly as dominant before getting promoted to Triple-A for a somewhat underwhelming stint to end the season. The big righthander started 2017 in Triple-A and returned to his lights out form, posting a 11.88 K/9 and a 1.62 ERA while walking just 2.16 batters per nine innings for a cool 28.8 K-BB%. The Marlins clearly saw enough, and after a late-July recall he was practically unhittable, posting a 14.02 K/9 with a 2.34 ERA and 3.14 xFIP in 35 innings. He saw just one save opportunity during that time but it was a dandy as he fired 1.1 scoreless frames striking out three. With Miami in firesale mode, the two relievers ahead of him on the depth chart - Brad Ziegler and Kyle Barraclough - could certainly be dealt at any time, leaving the ninth wide open. It might not be long before big Drew becomes the next fireballing closer.
A.J. Minter, Braves
Sticking in the NL East, A.J. Minter took a different route to the big leagues but is in a similar position as Steckenrider. Minter started his college career as a reliever but was converted to a starter heading into his junior year. However, Tommy John surgery ended his season early, and when he was drafted by the Braves in 2015 he was ultimately destined for the pen. Minter made brief stops at four minor league levels in 2017 before eventually ending up in Atlanta in late August after a fairly rocky 15.1 innings in Triple-A Gwinnett. There, he posted a 4.70 ERA (3.92 FIP, 4.76 xFIP) but still managed to strike out 9.98 batters per nine innings. Apparently all he needed was some stiffer competition because Minter excelled in 15 innings a the major league level to close the season. Minter raised his strikeout rate to an absurd 15.60 per nine innings to go along with a 3.00 ERA (0.96 FIP, 1.63 xFIP) despite a stupidly high BABIP of .387. The lefty has a hard fastball that averages 96.5 MPH and a slider that clocked in at 90.4 MPH. He threw first-pitch strikes 63.3% of the time and induced swings at an 18.2% rate, well above league average. If he can continue to harness his control - he lowered his walk rate from an unsightly 14.1% to a sparkling 3.3% upon his promotion - he’ll position himself well to take over the ninth inning duties should something happen to Arodys Vizcaino. In the meantime, he should be a help in the ERA and WHIP department and could push 100 Ks if he establishes himself as a high-leverage guy for the Braves.
Trevor Hildenberger, Twins
Unlike the previous two pitchers, Trevor Hildenberger isn’t quite the same strikeout specialist. The Twins righty managed a respectable 9.43 K/9 in his rookie season over 42 innings, but it was his control that set him apart. Hildenberger walked just 1.29 batters per nine innings and throughout his minor league career displayed this very same ability to limit the free pass. He also kept the ball on the ground with a 58.8% GB rate. All this led to a 3.21 ERA (3.01 FIP and 2.92 xFIP), a 1.05 WHIP and an opponents batting average of just .238. The 27-year-old has a four-pitch arsenal, uncommon for a reliever, and while he doesn’t throw hard (an average of 91.2 MPH on his fastball) he keeps hitters off balance with a tricky sidearm delivery. The BABIP (.304) and strand rate (77.8%) were both right around league average while his HR/FB rate of 14.8% has some room to come down with a bit of luck on his side. The tough part will be projecting a path to saves. The Twins brought in a pair of former closers in Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed during the offseason and both will likely be in line for saves ahead of Hildenberger. But, Rodney is in the twilight of his career and injuries do happen. Don’t be afraid to draft the skills here.
