RADIO
November baseball is now history. I welcome our new DFS overlord, December basketball, with open arms. It didn't really make the most sense, but Coach Jason Kidd made a comment the other day that the veterans really start playing in December. Take that for what it's worth (not much) and let's discuss this east coast heavy eight-game, Friday night slate.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it, these matchups are a bit ugly. As in low totals, low pace and some fairly large spreads. I know the game is won and lost with the individual players you throw in your lineup, but pace and totals have the biggest correlation with high point totals. In other words, pace, high number of possessions and efficient offenses rule the world - especially in tournaments. The few lines of interest that are available as of this writing are the Warriors at Magic (228), Pacers at Raptors (215) and the Timberwolves at Thunder (211). When those are the three best over/unders of the night on an eight game Friday, we know we're likely to see some uglier totals tonight. The upside in this? There should be game stacks you can make with teams outside of the obvious games that most will have very low exposure to, giving you big leverage in GPP's.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 12/1/17. The picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays. If you have any questions, find me on Twitter @kpLUCH.
FanDuel DFS Guards
Russell Westbrook - PG, vs MIN ($11,300)
The Thunder haven't really figured it all out yet - the offense is struggling, their record below .500, etc - but it seems as if Westbrook is taking matters into his own hands. This season, he hadn't had many strong fantasy outputs, until just this past 7-10 days, a stretch in which he has crushed his price implied value in five straight games. From a pace perspective, this game is a downgrade for the Thunder, but the 211 total is relatively attractive and if the spread (Thunder favored by 4.5) is even close to accurate, we should see starters on the floor for their full allotment of minutes - and then some. Minutes are the best commodity for any of your players, but especially valuable for someone like Russ who is pouring in 1.4 fantasy points per minute with a 34.3 Usage rate on the season. On top of that, the Timberwolves aren't exactly known for their ability to stop opposing point guards, as they rank 21st in DvP there. (Update: Russ is a game time decision with a hand injury. I think he plays, but something worth monitoring.)
Stephen Curry - PG, at ORL ($9,700)
I normally try to dig deep and find more value for my second point guard suggestion, but I can't ignore what a great situation these stars are in. Seriously. Curry is under-priced here, gets a fantastic road matchup against a team that gives up points in bunches and operates at a fast enough pace to make this matchup look attractive from all angles. The Magic currently rank 29th in DvP versus point guards and 27th in defensive efficiency versus point guards. Consider that and the fact Curry is dropping in 1.3 fantasy points per minute with a 30 Usage rate, and you've got the recipe for a big fantasy night.
Also Consider: Ish Smith - PG, at WAS ($4,100)
Avery Bradley - PG, at WAS ($5,500)
I don't really love the "elite" options at shooting guard tonight. There are inflated prices, bad matchups and low point total projections surrounding many of them. Victor Oladipo is a bit expensive for cash (but a nice tournament pivot), Bradley Beal faces off against a Detroit team great at stopping opposing #2 guards, and DeMar DeRozan likely gets stuck with the defense of the aforementioned Victory Oladipo. Which brings me to the mid-tier, where guys like Evan Fournier and especially Avery Bradley are in pretty good spots. I lean Bradley in cash as he has been more consistent than Fournier, and he also has the better matchup from a defensive efficiency standpoint - the Wizards rank 13th in that respect, whereas Fournier's opponent, the Warriors, rank third in the same category. There's more to like about Bradley as well, as he plays in a tight rotation (should see 32+ minutes), scores 0.9 fantasy points per minute and has a Usage rate projection of 22 this evening.
Jrue Holiday - SG, at UTA ($6,600)
If you're playing in tournaments this evening, I think you have to take a strong look at Jrue Holiday. He has quietly been lighting it up of late, playing a ton of minutes and putting up 20 shot attempts in each of the Pelicans' two most recent games, and, looking back even further, he's got just one game with less than 12 shot attempts in his last six games. This certainly isn't cash game safe as the Jazz not only limit possessions, but they are a pretty strong defensive team. One thing going against the Jazz, however, is that they played just last night, on the road in Los Angeles. I'm hoping that, and the combination of more household names at the top of the shooting guard list, help to depress his ownership this evening.
Also Consider: Evan Fournier - SG, vs GSW ($5,400)
Tournament Pivot: Victor Oladipo - SG, at TOR ($8,600)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Josh Richardson - SF, vs CHA ($4,500)
There are a number of point guards worth paying up for tonight and the small forward slate is pretty damn ugly. As such, it's imperative we find guys at a low price that we feel pretty confident in hitting value. Richardson fits the bill this evening. He's been playing better basketball of late, hitting value+ in each of his last three games. The matchup is one that he should be able to take advantage of - the Hornets currently rank 25th against the position in DvP and are just 16th in efficiency against small forwards. Aside from that, I do like the game context here. The Heat are projected for more points than their season average and the spread of this game is just 2.5 points.
Also Consider: Kevin Durant - SF, at ORL ($10,100)
Cheap Tournament Option: Rudy Gay - SF, at MEM ($4,800)
LaMarcus Aldridge - PF, at MEM ($8,900)
LaMarcus just so happens to benefit from these slow pace games and just so happens to be playing a strong defensive team with one glaring weak spot - the power forward position. Memphis currently ranks 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency against power forwards and as such, I think this a great matchup for Aldridge and I believe he's in play in both formats with his high floor and higher-than-usual ceiling. For the season, Aldridge has an impressive point per minute mark of 1.23 and I'm projecting him for 32+ minutes tonight with a Usage rate of nearly 30. I'm sold.
Also Consider: Frank Kaminsky - PF, at MIA ($4,600)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Andre Drummond - C, at WAS ($8,800)
Thanks to a blowout game and his decreased minutes in said game, we get Drummond at a decreased price tonight with a strong matchup against the Wizards. For the season, the Wizards have been middle of the pack in defending centers, and Marcin Gortat is not the player he was in his younger years. In other words, it might not look amazingly attractive from a DVP or defensive efficiency standpoint, but it's a spot where Drummond could destroy value. He sees his minutes normally in the low 30's, has a very impressive rebound rate and the 20 Usage rate is pretty attractive as well. I think he's got a safe enough floor for cash and he's someone you'd want to consider in tournaments due to what I see as a heightened ceiling Friday night.
Also Consider for Tournaments: DeMarcus Cousins - C, at UTA ($10,700)
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