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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 22

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 22 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Curtis Granderson (OF, LAD) 94% contact rate last seven days (+12%)

The Grand Man has made an instant impact in L.A., although it's not like they needed any help offensively. Granderson has gradually devolved into a dead-pull hitter and he's doing so at an incredible 70% rate with the Dodgers. While it has resulted in three big flies in his first eight games with the club, he's batting .138 over that span and is at .194 since the All-Star break. Don't be fooled into thinking he's suddenly hitting the ball more often than before. He's just making the highlight reels when he does go yard while failing to reach base otherwise.

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 86% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

How bad has Myers been in the second half? Even when his contact rate finally jumps up closer to 90%, he still hits only .143 for the week. He no longer leads the majors in strikeouts, so there's that (he's seventh at the moment). Still, Myers has seemingly lost his ability to put the ball in play and is hitting the ball in the air at a 43% clip. Swinging for the fences rather than spraying the ball to all fields is what got teammate and phenom Hunter Renfroe sent down to the minors. It won't happen to Myers, but he may need an entire offseason to reboot his approach.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 88% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

"Don't forget about me! I was an All-Star, you know!" - Marcell Ozuna, probably. While Giancarlo Stanton has officially stolen all the thunder from Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Derek Jeter in the Miami baseball world, Ozuna is quietly still raking. In August, he's batting .333 with seven HR and 22 RBI. Ozuna has driven in at least 15 runs in every month this season and seems primed to finish well above the .300 mark. If the Marlins find their way into the wild card race late in September, Ozuna will have just as much to do with it as Stanton.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) 55% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

On the flip side, if the Rockies manage to lose their grip on the final wild card spot in the NL, CarGo will shoulder a lot of the blame from fans. It's been a disastrous season for the former All-Star, as he has managed to stay healthy yet deliver almost nothing from a fantasy standpoint. Gonzalez is batting 50 points below his career average, his ISO is 100 points below his career average, and he may not even reach double-digit home runs despite being on pace to break 500 at-bats. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity have dropped dramatically, which could signal more than just an off-year for the former outfield stalwart.

Hanley Ramirez (1B, BOS) 64% contact rate last seven days (-12%)

Ramirez hasn't put together his finest season by any means, but August may prove to be his worst month of all. HanRam is batting .219 in the last 20 games and just cracked his third homer of the month on Tuesday night. You could point to a .277 BABIP and argue that regression is due, but he'll have to reverse an increasing strikeout trend for that to happen. While he could pull himself up to the .260 range by season's end if he finishes strong, his days as a .300 hitter seem numbered.

Jean Segura (2B/SS, SEA) 75% contact rate last seven days (-10%)

Segura would seem to be the last person you'd worry about in terms of contact and batting average, but it's been more than a week since he's give fantasy owners grief. In 171 at-bats over the second half of the season, Segura is batting .228. If he were producing in the power categories, that might not be a deal breaker, but he's gone deep once and driven in just six runs in those 41 games. He's become more efficient in the speed game, but he isn't a 40-steal threat any more and will need to start collecting a lot more base hits to remain a fantasy starter down the stretch. He was able to sustain a .353 BABIP last year, so maybe he can at least stand pat at his current .350 BABIP.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
Seth Curry

to Remain Sidelined on Christmas Day
Jae'Sean Tate

Questionable Thursday
Dwight Powell

Likely to Return on Christmas
Jaylin Williams

Misses Fifth Straight Game
Ousmane Dieng

Unavailable on Christmas Day
Guerschon Yabusele

Questionable for Christmas Action
Miles McBride

Remains Out on Christmas
Cameron Johnson

to Miss Time With Bone Bruise in Right Knee
Jaxson Hayes

Considered Questionable for Christmas Matchup
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Return Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith

Could Make Season Debut on Christmas Day
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Uncertain for Christmas Day
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Listed as Questionable for Christmas Game
Al Horford

on Track to Return Thursday
Jaden McDaniels

Iffy for Christmas Day
Brandon Williams

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
P.J. Washington

at Risk of Missing Second Straight Game
Klay Thompson

Likely to Play on Christmas Day
Max Christie

Probable for Christmas Day
Ajay Mitchell

Out on Christmas Day
Chet Holmgren

Available on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Expected to Play on Christmas Day Against the Vikings
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
DK Metcalf

has Two-Game Suspension Upheld
Philip Rivers

to Remain the Starter in Week 17
George Kittle

Dealing With Mid-to-Low Ankle Sprain
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
Deshaun Watson

Will Not be Activated Off PUP List, 2025 Season is Over
J.J. McCarthy

Ruled Out for Week 17
Rome Odunze

Expected to Return This Season
Christian McCaffrey

Another Monster Game for Christian McCaffrey in Week 16
Brock Purdy

Throws for Five Touchdowns in Week 16
TreVeyon Henderson

in Concussion Protocol, Week 17 Status Unclear
George Kittle

Week 17 Availability in Question?
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays
CFB

Darian Mensah Returning to Duke Next Season

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