August 30, 2017

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 22 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season.

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Contact Rate Risers

Curtis Granderson (OF, LAD) 94% contact rate last seven days (+12%)

The Grand Man has made an instant impact in L.A., although it's not like they needed any help offensively. Granderson has gradually devolved into a dead-pull hitter and he's doing so at an incredible 70% rate with the Dodgers. While it has resulted in three big flies in his first eight games with the club, he's batting .138 over that span and is at .194 since the All-Star break. Don't be fooled into thinking he's suddenly hitting the ball more often than before. He's just making the highlight reels when he does go yard while failing to reach base otherwise.

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 86% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

How bad has Myers been in the second half? Even when his contact rate finally jumps up closer to 90%, he still hits only .143 for the week. He no longer leads the majors in strikeouts, so there's that (he's seventh at the moment). Still, Myers has seemingly lost his ability to put the ball in play and is hitting the ball in the air at a 43% clip. Swinging for the fences rather than spraying the ball to all fields is what got teammate and phenom Hunter Renfroe sent down to the minors. It won't happen to Myers, but he may need an entire offseason to reboot his approach.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 88% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

"Don't forget about me! I was an All-Star, you know!" - Marcell Ozuna, probably. While Giancarlo Stanton has officially stolen all the thunder from Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Derek Jeter in the Miami baseball world, Ozuna is quietly still raking. In August, he's batting .333 with seven HR and 22 RBI. Ozuna has driven in at least 15 runs in every month this season and seems primed to finish well above the .300 mark. If the Marlins find their way into the wild card race late in September, Ozuna will have just as much to do with it as Stanton.

Contact Rate Fallers

Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) 55% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

On the flip side, if the Rockies manage to lose their grip on the final wild card spot in the NL, CarGo will shoulder a lot of the blame from fans. It's been a disastrous season for the former All-Star, as he has managed to stay healthy yet deliver almost nothing from a fantasy standpoint. Gonzalez is batting 50 points below his career average, his ISO is 100 points below his career average, and he may not even reach double-digit home runs despite being on pace to break 500 at-bats. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity have dropped dramatically, which could signal more than just an off-year for the former outfield stalwart.

Hanley Ramirez (1B, BOS) 64% contact rate last seven days (-12%)

Ramirez hasn't put together his finest season by any means, but August may prove to be his worst month of all. HanRam is batting .219 in the last 20 games and just cracked his third homer of the month on Tuesday night. You could point to a .277 BABIP and argue that regression is due, but he'll have to reverse an increasing strikeout trend for that to happen. While he could pull himself up to the .260 range by season's end if he finishes strong, his days as a .300 hitter seem numbered.

Jean Segura (2B/SS, SEA) 75% contact rate last seven days (-10%)

Segura would seem to be the last person you'd worry about in terms of contact and batting average, but it's been more than a week since he's give fantasy owners grief. In 171 at-bats over the second half of the season, Segura is batting .228. If he were producing in the power categories, that might not be a deal breaker, but he's gone deep once and driven in just six runs in those 41 games. He's become more efficient in the speed game, but he isn't a 40-steal threat any more and will need to start collecting a lot more base hits to remain a fantasy starter down the stretch. He was able to sustain a .353 BABIP last year, so maybe he can at least stand pat at his current .350 BABIP.

More Risers and Fallers