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Tom analyzes mid-round running back (RB) sleepers for fantasy football. These are undervalued running backs to target in rounds 6-10 of fantasy football drafts.
Hey RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be looking at running backs to target in the middle rounds (6th-10th in Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP), and I'll explain why these three backs are worth reaching for in hopes of a huge return on investment.
I'll try to answer the question that everyone wants to know: who's that running back that I need to have? I'll let you in on who I'm targeting in the middle-to-late rounds of drafts in hopes of capturing the next David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, Michael Thomas, or Doug Baldwin.
You can also check out my late-round running back selections. Let's get to it.
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Value Running Backs - Rounds 6-10
Danny Woodhead (RB, BAL) - 62.4 FP ADP
I would love to put Carlos Hyde or Kareem Hunt here, but something tells me they won't make it out of the fourth round let alone all the way in the sixth. Regardless, Danny Woodhead can be just as much of a value, if not more, at his current ADP.
Obviously, health is a big concern for the pass-catching back Woodhead. He ended his season early last year and is dealing with hamstring issues this preseason. Currently he and the Ravens hope he'll be available for Week 1, but there is a chance he starts out the year on the sidelines.
Either way, Woodhead is a steal at this point of PPR or half-PPR drafts. We've heard some rumblings that the coaching staff isn't all that confident with Buck Allen as a three-down runner or even a solid two-down runner. So, if Woodhead can get right and stay right, he could be the third down back, change-of-pace back, and then some. How does 12-15 carries and 5-8 catches sound?
OK, so that's really optimistic, but just think how many looks this versatile player could get in an offense that threw the ball a league-leading 679 times last year. Yeah, I'm drooling too.
Take Woodhead here while everyone else is hemming and hawing, and thank me later.
Doug Martin (RB, TB) - 81.2 FP ADP
I'm all about the "take the suspended/injured guy and just try to make it to the playoffs" approach. Just look at how many times I've drafted Le'Veon Bell in the past three years. Yes, Doug Martin is suspended for three games, and that's not the only hurdle he'll have to clear in order to provide value in the seventh round or so, but here's why the Muscle Hamster is worth it.
I understand if you're someone like me who got burned by Martin in an injury-riddled 2016 season. However, I would kindly like to point you towards his 4.9 yards per carry and 33 receptions in a healthy 2015 season.
Sure, I know that Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers present some competition for touches, and that's not even factoring in Mike Evans' and DeSean Jackson's inevitable sqwuaking about not touching the ball enough. But have you forgotten what Martin can do with just one small opening in an offensive line?
The three game suspension is of very little concern to me, especially if you can get a guy like this in the seventh round. The lack of touches would be scary, sure. But imagine the upside that this pick has if, in fact, Martin is in the best shape of his life and plays 13 games at his 4.9 yards per carry rate for a much better offensive team. You could be looking at an RB7 for the price of an RB30 come playoff time.
Yes, I do have a Doug Martin optimism issue, but let's go down on this ship together!
Paul Perkins (RB, NYG) - 83 FP ADP
Somewhere between the beginning of last season and now, Paul Perkins has become the running back with a great opportunity without a dynamite skillset. That confuses me, because we talked about this 2016 rookie and his pass-catching prowess like it was nothing we had ever seen before.
I understand this preseason has been nothing to write home about. I also hear you when you say that Shane Vereen, Orleans Darkwa, and Wayne Gallman present some possible competition for touches. But to me, I see a PPR monster with the opportunity to become great in standard leagues too.
The Giants' weak offensive line does give me some pause, especially alongside the common hesitations stated above, but this second-year back has a chance to thrive in an offense with plenty of weapons to distract the opposition. If you can get Perkins in the eighth round, I would certainly pull the trigger.
The downside is clearly that Perkins could lose his job by the time October comes around. However, the upside is a three-down back who can catch with the best of the NFL's pass-catching runners. He has a good quarterback, his team should be competitive, he's young enough to make big strides skill-wise, and the opportunity is there for the taking.
I'm certainly going to have some shares of Paul Perkins (especially in PPR leagues), even if it means reaching a bit to take him over players like Frank Gore, Mike Gillislee, and maybe even Tevin Coleman.
Remember to check out the next three articles for more mid-to-late round breakouts at RB and WR. You can find me on Twitter @BellRoto. Good luck in your drafts!
