July 7, 2017

Kevin Luchansky's top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 7/7/17. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekend, my fellow RotoBallers! On deck tonight we've got a packed 13-game slate with a handful of aces taking the bump and some attractive lines to target.

Before we jump into player analysis, let's take a look at the lines Vegas has posted thus far to see what we can derive. Currently, the teams with the highest projected run total are as follows - Rockies (6.4), Yankees (6.1), Indians (5.7), Rangers (5.5) and the Dodgers (5.4) to round out the top five. Those are all good places to start when deciding which stacks to deploy in cash and tournament formats. As for moneyline favorites - helpful for selecting cash game pitchers - it starts with the Nationals (-245, Max Scherzer), Dodgers (-209, Kenta Maeda), Indians (-208, Carlos Carrasco) and the Yankees (-197, Jordan Montgomery).

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DFS on 7/7/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider

Max Scherzer - vs ATL (DK - $13,200, FD - $12,400)

What can I say about Scherzer that hasn't already been said in one of my previous write-ups? There's nothing new to gush about, but he is on a tear right now and even at this elevated price point, I see no reason to quit him. He's pitching at home today in pitcher-friendly Nationals Park and he takes on an Atlanta team that has a fairly paltry offense (even with Freddie Freeman back) that also gets a negative park shift. Max has been able to beat value in eight straight starts, doing so by a margin of more than 17 fantasy points a night - which is just flat out ridiculous considering he's the most expensive option every time he's slated to pitch. He's also recorded double digit strikeouts in six of his last seven and has a good chance to do so today. In Vegas, he's the biggest favorite and you can expect some run support as well. For the season, he owns a splendid 0.87 WHIP, 0.87 HR/9 and a 11.6 K/9. And believe it or not, to top it all off, batted ball luck tells us he's actually been quite unlucky over his last three starts.

Jordan Montgomery - vs MIL (DK - $6,500, FD - $7,900)

I have to start this one with a bit of caution, seeing as Montgomery has a good matchup, but it is not one free of risk. The Brewers hit lefties fairly well and they certainly pack a lot of home run threats in the upper two-thirds of their lineup. That said, they strike out a ton (25.7% K rate against LHP in 2017), which gives a strikeout pitcher like Montgomery even more upside in this contest. Montgomery has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees and fantasy owners alike this season, as he's posted some very solid numbers for a rookie (1.2 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9 and an 8.8 K/9). In addition to his primary metrics, StatCast also has some favorable data for Montgomery, who has allowed just a 31% hard hit rate in his last three starts, paired with an 11% line drive rate and a 42% ground ball rate. If you're playing large-field GPP's tonight, you need to strongly consider Montgomery who is listed as a value-tier pitcher with serious upside.

DFS Infielders to Consider

Catcher (C)

Chris Herrmann - vs CIN (DK - $3,100, FD - $2,400)

This is a fantastic matchup for this price point, especially on FanDuel. To get this sort of home run upside in an ideal hitting environment against a pitcher like Tim Adleman - who has been shelled and allowed over a .400 wOBA and .400 ISO his past three starts - is a gift. Herrmann sports great splits dating back to last season - .305 wOBA and a .214 ISO - and has been smashing the ball of late (60% hard hit rate last two weeks).

First Base (1B)

Edwin Encarnacion - vs DET (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,300)

Pardon the repetitive language, but this is yet another fantastic matchup at an ideal (see also: cheap) price point. Edwin enters this game fairly hot, hitting two home runs over the past four days and owning a 40+% fly ball rate over a two week stretch. He faces poor Jordan Zimmermann, who has been getting owned by lefties and right-handed batters alike, allowing a .288 ISO over his last three starts. Edwin, on the other hand, can smash right-handed pitching and owns a .366 wOBA split (and a .259 ISO split) dating back to 2016.

Second Base (2B)

Jason Kipnis - vs DET (DK - $3,600, FD - $2,700)

If you're going to pay up for the aces and studs tonight (and I suggest you do), then you'll need to save money here and there without sacrificing too much upside. Upside and opportunity present themselves today in the human form of Jason Kipnis, who is listed as a value-tier player but possesses great upside hitting in the leadoff position for the team projected for the third-most runs tonight. I already mentioned how abysmal Zimmermann has been this year, and on top of that, Kipnis sports a .325 wOBA and .430 slugging percentage split with a 57% fly ball rate (fly ball rate just pertains to past 15 days).

Shortstop (SS)

Corey Seager - vs KCR (DK - $4,700, FD - $3,800)

Seeing Jason Hammel listed as the starter against the Dodgers tonight really lit up my eyes. Hammel isn't all bad, but when that fastball is sitting flat, he's one of the most hit-able pitchers in the game. He has been roughed up a bit of late, too, allowing a .405 wOBA and .274 ISO over his past three starts. Seager enters this game coming off some middling performances, but boy has he been hitting the smack out of the ball, posting a 60% hard hit rate over the past two weeks. I expect he and his .389 wOBA split to do some damage tonight in Los Angeles.

Third Base (3B)

Nolan Arenado - vs CWS (DK - $5,200, FD - $4,700)

Outside of pitching, I don't think you really need to spend up much today to find players with similar potential that fit nicely into your lineup. That said, Arenado is in a situation that needs to be exploited - especially if you're playing in tournament formats tonight. His opponent, Derek Holland, has been serviceable and even somewhat good this year, but he's still Holland and his ugly WHIP (1.5) and HR.9 (1.66) will likely get him into trouble this evening. If those don't get him into too much trouble, then the recent 40% hard hit rate likely will. Oh, and there is also the enormous Coors fact to consider - a boost for Arenado and a major downgrade for Holland. Dating back to last season, Arenado has been the owner of southpaw pitching, posting a .403 wOBA and a .284 ISO split.

DFS Outfielders to Consider

A.J. Pollock - vs CIN (DK - $4,600, FD - $3,400)

Since his long-awaited return from the disabled list, Pollock hasn't had too much production. He's meddled around his price implied value, but rarely passed it in the past week. As such, he's priced as a bargain and I'm going to jump on him in what is a pretty ideal matchup. The game is at home in an excellent run-producing stadium, Pollock hits at the top of the lineup, owns a .354 wOBA split dating back to last season and has a 60% hard hit rate in the past week.

Joc Pederson - vs KCR (DK - $4,000, FD - $3,700)

I can't quit playing Joc in tournaments and neither should you - at least not tonight. I've mentioned before how much I love targeting Jason Hammel - not because he's a terrible pitcher, but because he's often overlooked as a potential pitcher to target (or stack) against. Joc enters this game on a notable upswing and has very positive stat splits - .393 wOBA and a .265 ISO.

Also Consider: Aaron Judge 

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