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Chris Paul is a Rocket - What's the Fantasy Fallout?

After the underwhelming NBA playoffs, an overwhelming offseason has taken the NBA and fantasy world by storm. With the Celtics swapping their 1st pick for more assets and the 3rd pick with the 76ers, Jimmy Butler and Paul George finding new homes, and former huge talent PGs that fell out of favor with their original teams, D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio, being dealt, it's been a wild ride, and the free agency has just started a few hours ago.

But the move with most impact on the NBA title chase and probably fantasy values too must be the trade that sent Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, a 2018 protected first-round draft pick and reportedly a few hundred other players out of which only Montrezl Harrell was worth mentioning fantasy-wise so far.

I won't get into who got the better deal in this trade, nor will I analyze the situation in which both teams are and the reasons behind this deal. We will just take a look ahead at what this trade does to fantasy values of key players on both teams.

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Houston Rockets Implications

James Harden

James Harden was at or near the top of most leagues' fantasy rankings, and deservedly so. His 29.1 PTS on 44.0 FG% and 84.7 FT% (on 10.9 attempts) with 3.2 3PM, 8.1 REB, 11.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK and 5.7 TO per game were insanely useful for his owners last year. Heck, they were enough to put him into serious contention for the MVP award against Russell Westbrook's historic, triple-double averaging season.

But now, with Paul coming to town, two ball-dominant superstars will have to learn to work together and share the ball. Even though players of such caliber and basketball IQ will certainly develop chemistry and find a way to successfully co-exist, something will have to give.

We should expect The Beard's 34.1% usage rate to take a drop. He will probably have less shot attempts which will result in lower points and threes. But with Paul there to create shots for Harden, so with more catch-and-shoot attempts and less pull-up jumpers off the dribble, his FG efficiency should go way up. He might even be able to keep up similar scoring on much fewer shots if his efficiency truly skyrockets.

Also, Houston was tied at the 3rd spot for assists per game in the NBA last season with 25.2. The Beard had 11.2 and CP3 had 9.2 last season. That's almost as much as the entire Houston team last year. So with Harden moving back to SG, his assists will certainly take a hit. On the other hand, he probably won't lead the league in turnovers anymore.

So, Harden's counting stats will probably be lower than what we are accustomed to with Paul in town, and he will have a harder time single-handedly winning you all the counting stat categories, but having such a quality point guard by his side will certainly help his efficiency. It's a little less scary after watching Durant switch from the Thunder to the Warriors and make up for his loss of usage with better efficiency.

Chris Paul

I don't see Paul's stats changing too much. The Rockets high-paced offense, which is 3rd in the league with 102.54, compared to the Clippers' 17th at 98.22, should provide him with enough extra opportunities on the attack to compensate for sharing the ball with Harden.

Although he will have to adapt to the Rockets' style of either shooting the ball from beyond the three-point stripe or finishing inside the paint (CP3 was one of the players with the most 2-point pull-up jumpers in the NBA last season), with Paul having Harden to handle the ball and attack the rim, he should have more open shots. And his shooting also improves when he doesn't have to create his own shot, so it's reasonable to expect a few more threes and even higher percentages from Paul next season.

He might not score as much as he did with the Clippers, Harden may take a few assists away from Paul and more possessions per game might result in a few more turnovers, but with such a big change in real life, in fantasy it's not too huge.

The Houston's Supporting Cast

These are the guys who will probably profit the most. Catch-and-shoot experts Ryan Anderson and 6th man of the year Eric Gordon should flourish with another guy on court who can give them wide open looks, assuming they're not also ditched in an effort to get a third star on board (Paul Millsap, maybe?). Trevor Ariza should also see some more shots from Paul's passes, so all three of them could see their shooting percentages take a leap in the right direction.

Paul's arrival should have most impact on Clint Capela. The young center will finally have a pass-first pick-and-roll wizard to boost his scoring and shooting percentages with Paul bringing Lob City from LA to Houston.

Also, with Houston giving away so many players in this deal it will be interesting how they fill out the rest of their roster. If they manage to get cheap quality players, like veteran Nene, those players could see some increased minutes with Houston's depth taking a hit in favor of quality of the first unit. If Houston's bench remains weak, all of the players mentioned above could be seeing heavy minutes, especially in those close, important games.

 

Los Angeles Clippers Implications

Blake Griffin

It appears that Blake Griffin will remain with the Clippers under a new monster contract. He will now be the focal point of their attack. Even though his shot efficiency without Paul to create for him should drop, the increase of shot attempts should result in more points.

With Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley in town, and Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers also being able to hit long range shots, Griffin should still have plenty of floor spreaders to play his inside game, so the departures of Paul and (probably) J.J. Redick shouldn't do too much harm there.

Griffin could take over a point-forward role and assume some of the duties that Paul had in distributing the ball on offense. That should increase his assists above his already great 4.9 per game. But with more power comes more responsibility, so his turnovers will probably rise, too. Altogether, Blake could be in for a monster counting stats season, but there will be questions about his efficiency. If the efficiency isn't too bad, he could provide first round return.

DeAndre Jordan

Probably the biggest "fantasy loser" of this trade is DeAndre Jordan. With no more Paul to throw those alley-oops to him, I doubt he can maintain his insane 71.4 FG%. He might get the ball in his hands more though but he is not a big offensive threat on his own at the moment, and I'm not sure that he can keep scoring 12.7 points a game if no one else steps up and feeds him with the lobs he is so used to hammering in.

The Rest of the Clippers Pack

The new arrivals Beverley and Williams should both have nice contributions for the Clippers, with LA's starting guards (Paul and Reddick) both expected to leave in free agency. They probably won't be shooting that many wide open threes with no Harden to draw defenders, but their usage should rise and with it a few more shot attempts, points and  assists.

There has been some unconfirmed chatter that Austin Rivers has been getting special treatment from his coach and father Doc Rivers. Whether that's true or not, Austin should have an increased role next season and it's up to him how well will he help fill the void left by Paul. He may even be the full-time starter alongside Beverley, with Lou sliding into his traditional 6th man role.

It's still unclear what the Clippers will do with all of the players that they received in return, and there are just too many IFs at the moment to put everything into perspective from their side. Will Sam Dekker have a prominent rotation role? What about Harrell? We'll need to wait out free agency.

As it stands now, Griffin will be the lone star on this roster and if he remains healthy, he could play heavy minutes and get nice volume stats. He could even come close to some triple-doubles if he decides to make his long time partner Paul proud.

 

More 2017-18 Fantasy Basketball Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Possibly Out 10-14 Days
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Returning Returning on Monday
Brandon Miller

Available on Monday Versus OKC
Kon Knueppel

Will Play Against OKC
Coby White

Back on Monday Night
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

Upgraded to Probable for Monday
Kon Knueppel

Probable For Monday
Matthew Schaefer

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Jamie Benn

to Miss at Least Two Games
Seth Jones

Out Week-to-Week
James Harden

Lands on Injury Report Monday
Zach Bogosian

Unavailable Monday Night
Joel Embiid

Probable For Monday
Trevor Moore

Remains Out Monday
Aliaksei Protas

a Game-Time Call Versus Ducks
Jakob Poeltl

Sidelined at Least One More Week
Tom Wilson

Won't Play Monday
Jamal Murray

Sidelined Monday
CFB

Ty Simpson Undecided on 2026 Plans
CFB

Quarterback AJ Hill Following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Have Requested an Interview With Klint Kubiak
Deshaun Watson

Browns Expect Deshaun Watson to be on the Team Next Year
Wan'Dale Robinson

Dealing With Fractured Ribs
Cam Skattebo

Hopes to be Back by Training Camp
Cameron Ward

Won't Need Surgery on his Shoulder
Davante Adams

Rams Expect Davante Adams to Return in Wild-Card Round
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Fire Head Coach Jonathan Gannon
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Fire Head Coach Pete Carroll
Malik Nabers

Unsure if He Will Be Ready for Week 1 of 2026 Season
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Will Return to Ole Miss If Granted Sixth Year of Eligibility
Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor Will Return as Bengals Head Coach in 2026
New York Giants

Giants Expected to Show Interest in Former Browns Head Coach Kevin Stefanski
Daniel Jones

Colts, Daniel Jones Appear to Have "Mutual Interest" in a 2026 Reunion
John Klingberg

to Sit Out at Least Three More Games
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fire Kevin Stefanski After Another Losing Season
Matthew Tkachuk

Joins Panthers for Road Trip
Connor Bedard

Set to Return Before Olympic Break
Jamie Benn

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Devon Toews

Not Expected to Make Quick Return
Gabriel Landeskog

to Miss "Some Time"
Zay Flowers

Goes Off for 138 Yards, Two Touchdowns in Loss
Bo Bichette

Phillies Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Dominates in Week 18 Win
Cameron Ward

Believed to Have Grade 3 AC Joint Sprain in Right Shoulder
Colston Loveland

Leads Bears in Targets, Receptions, Receiving Yards in Week 18
Santi Aldama

Available on Sunday Evening
Ja Morant

Downgraded on Sunday Night
Puka Nacua

Finishes the Regular Season as Top-Scoring Receiver
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Fire Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot
David Njoku

Wants to Re-Sign with Browns
Ray Davis

Runs Wild in Final Game of Regular Season
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Good to Go Against Sacramento
Trae Young

Won't Play on Monday Night
Grayson Allen

Still Out on Sunday Night
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
Logan Stanley

to Sit Out One Game With Suspension
TOR

Chris Tanev Could Be Done for Rest of Regular Season
Sean Monahan

Expected to Return Tuesday
Alexander Wennberg

Lands Three-Year Extension
John Beecher

Handed One-Game Suspension
Devon Toews

Unavailable Sunday
Seth Jones

Out Against Avalanche
Jamal Murray

Will Play on Sunday
Christian Braun

Will Play on Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Will Play on Sunday
Ja Morant

Questionable Against the Lakers
Michael Porter Jr.

Off Injury Report, Set to Face Nuggets
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday
Nathan MacKinnon

Takes Over Scoring Lead With Four-Point Effort
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Kyle Tucker

Blue Jays "Remain the Favorite" to Sign Kyle Tucker
CFB

Joey Aguilar Undergoes Surgery to Remove Tumor on Friday
CFB

Texas the "Team to Beat" for Transfer Running Back Isaac Brown
CFB

Rocco Becht to Follow Matt Campbell to Penn State?
CFB

Texas Targeting Cam Coleman in Transfer Portal
CFB

Former Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Visiting Kentucky
CFB

Beau Pribula Visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU

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