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Chris Paul is a Rocket - What's the Fantasy Fallout?

After the underwhelming NBA playoffs, an overwhelming offseason has taken the NBA and fantasy world by storm. With the Celtics swapping their 1st pick for more assets and the 3rd pick with the 76ers, Jimmy Butler and Paul George finding new homes, and former huge talent PGs that fell out of favor with their original teams, D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio, being dealt, it's been a wild ride, and the free agency has just started a few hours ago.

But the move with most impact on the NBA title chase and probably fantasy values too must be the trade that sent Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, a 2018 protected first-round draft pick and reportedly a few hundred other players out of which only Montrezl Harrell was worth mentioning fantasy-wise so far.

I won't get into who got the better deal in this trade, nor will I analyze the situation in which both teams are and the reasons behind this deal. We will just take a look ahead at what this trade does to fantasy values of key players on both teams.

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Houston Rockets Implications

James Harden

James Harden was at or near the top of most leagues' fantasy rankings, and deservedly so. His 29.1 PTS on 44.0 FG% and 84.7 FT% (on 10.9 attempts) with 3.2 3PM, 8.1 REB, 11.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK and 5.7 TO per game were insanely useful for his owners last year. Heck, they were enough to put him into serious contention for the MVP award against Russell Westbrook's historic, triple-double averaging season.

But now, with Paul coming to town, two ball-dominant superstars will have to learn to work together and share the ball. Even though players of such caliber and basketball IQ will certainly develop chemistry and find a way to successfully co-exist, something will have to give.

We should expect The Beard's 34.1% usage rate to take a drop. He will probably have less shot attempts which will result in lower points and threes. But with Paul there to create shots for Harden, so with more catch-and-shoot attempts and less pull-up jumpers off the dribble, his FG efficiency should go way up. He might even be able to keep up similar scoring on much fewer shots if his efficiency truly skyrockets.

Also, Houston was tied at the 3rd spot for assists per game in the NBA last season with 25.2. The Beard had 11.2 and CP3 had 9.2 last season. That's almost as much as the entire Houston team last year. So with Harden moving back to SG, his assists will certainly take a hit. On the other hand, he probably won't lead the league in turnovers anymore.

So, Harden's counting stats will probably be lower than what we are accustomed to with Paul in town, and he will have a harder time single-handedly winning you all the counting stat categories, but having such a quality point guard by his side will certainly help his efficiency. It's a little less scary after watching Durant switch from the Thunder to the Warriors and make up for his loss of usage with better efficiency.

Chris Paul

I don't see Paul's stats changing too much. The Rockets high-paced offense, which is 3rd in the league with 102.54, compared to the Clippers' 17th at 98.22, should provide him with enough extra opportunities on the attack to compensate for sharing the ball with Harden.

Although he will have to adapt to the Rockets' style of either shooting the ball from beyond the three-point stripe or finishing inside the paint (CP3 was one of the players with the most 2-point pull-up jumpers in the NBA last season), with Paul having Harden to handle the ball and attack the rim, he should have more open shots. And his shooting also improves when he doesn't have to create his own shot, so it's reasonable to expect a few more threes and even higher percentages from Paul next season.

He might not score as much as he did with the Clippers, Harden may take a few assists away from Paul and more possessions per game might result in a few more turnovers, but with such a big change in real life, in fantasy it's not too huge.

The Houston's Supporting Cast

These are the guys who will probably profit the most. Catch-and-shoot experts Ryan Anderson and 6th man of the year Eric Gordon should flourish with another guy on court who can give them wide open looks, assuming they're not also ditched in an effort to get a third star on board (Paul Millsap, maybe?). Trevor Ariza should also see some more shots from Paul's passes, so all three of them could see their shooting percentages take a leap in the right direction.

Paul's arrival should have most impact on Clint Capela. The young center will finally have a pass-first pick-and-roll wizard to boost his scoring and shooting percentages with Paul bringing Lob City from LA to Houston.

Also, with Houston giving away so many players in this deal it will be interesting how they fill out the rest of their roster. If they manage to get cheap quality players, like veteran Nene, those players could see some increased minutes with Houston's depth taking a hit in favor of quality of the first unit. If Houston's bench remains weak, all of the players mentioned above could be seeing heavy minutes, especially in those close, important games.

 

Los Angeles Clippers Implications

Blake Griffin

It appears that Blake Griffin will remain with the Clippers under a new monster contract. He will now be the focal point of their attack. Even though his shot efficiency without Paul to create for him should drop, the increase of shot attempts should result in more points.

With Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley in town, and Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers also being able to hit long range shots, Griffin should still have plenty of floor spreaders to play his inside game, so the departures of Paul and (probably) J.J. Redick shouldn't do too much harm there.

Griffin could take over a point-forward role and assume some of the duties that Paul had in distributing the ball on offense. That should increase his assists above his already great 4.9 per game. But with more power comes more responsibility, so his turnovers will probably rise, too. Altogether, Blake could be in for a monster counting stats season, but there will be questions about his efficiency. If the efficiency isn't too bad, he could provide first round return.

DeAndre Jordan

Probably the biggest "fantasy loser" of this trade is DeAndre Jordan. With no more Paul to throw those alley-oops to him, I doubt he can maintain his insane 71.4 FG%. He might get the ball in his hands more though but he is not a big offensive threat on his own at the moment, and I'm not sure that he can keep scoring 12.7 points a game if no one else steps up and feeds him with the lobs he is so used to hammering in.

The Rest of the Clippers Pack

The new arrivals Beverley and Williams should both have nice contributions for the Clippers, with LA's starting guards (Paul and Reddick) both expected to leave in free agency. They probably won't be shooting that many wide open threes with no Harden to draw defenders, but their usage should rise and with it a few more shot attempts, points and  assists.

There has been some unconfirmed chatter that Austin Rivers has been getting special treatment from his coach and father Doc Rivers. Whether that's true or not, Austin should have an increased role next season and it's up to him how well will he help fill the void left by Paul. He may even be the full-time starter alongside Beverley, with Lou sliding into his traditional 6th man role.

It's still unclear what the Clippers will do with all of the players that they received in return, and there are just too many IFs at the moment to put everything into perspective from their side. Will Sam Dekker have a prominent rotation role? What about Harrell? We'll need to wait out free agency.

As it stands now, Griffin will be the lone star on this roster and if he remains healthy, he could play heavy minutes and get nice volume stats. He could even come close to some triple-doubles if he decides to make his long time partner Paul proud.

 

More 2017-18 Fantasy Basketball Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Keegan Murray

Expected to Make Season Debut Thursday
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
Alexandre Sarr

Uncertain for Wednesday's Game in Minnesota
Ausar Thompson

Returning Versus Atlanta
Cade Cunningham

Active on Tuesday Night
Jabari Smith Jr.

Questionable with Knee Issue Ahead of Meeting Versus Cleveland
Domantas Sabonis

to Miss Wednesday's Game
Paul George

Won't Play Wednesday Night
Onyeka Okongwu

Available on Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Listed as Doubtful for Wednesday
Jalen Suggs

Available Tuesday
Zaccharie Risacher

Ruled Out With Hip Contusion vs. Pistons
Odell Beckham Jr.

Officially Reinstated by NFL Commissioner
Kristaps Porzingis

Ruled Out on Tuesday Night
Buddy Hield

Available for Tuesday's Matchup With Orlando
Matt Murray

to Miss Six Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
Ilya Lyubushkin

Out on Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Out 1-2 Weeks With Groin Strain
Jamie Benn

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Stephon Castle

Sidelined 1-2 Weeks
Evgenii Dadonov

on Track to Return Tuesday
Dougie Hamilton

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Anthony Cirelli

Expected to Return Against Devils
Victor Hedman

Questionable for Tuesday
LeBron James

Aims to Make Season Debut Tuesday
Auston Matthews

to Miss at Least Two More Games
Grayson Allen

Sidelined on Tuesday
Gabe Vincent

Set to Suit Up Tuesday
C.J. Stroud

Expected to Return in Week 13 Against Colts
C.J. Stroud

to Miss Another Game
Jonathan Kuminga

Remains Out Tuesday
Keegan Murray

Could Make his Season Debut This Week
Caris LeVert

Liston as Out on Tuesday
Joe Mixon

Uncertainty Remains Around Joe Mixon's Return Timeline
Jaylen Warren

Mike Tomlin Optimistic About Jaylen Warren's Availability for Week 12
C.J. Stroud

Not Expected to Play on Thursday Night
Aaron Rodgers

Won't Need Surgery on Fractured Wrist, Could Play in Week 12?
Davis Mills

Prepping for Third Straight Start in Week 12?
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Mason Rudolph

Could Make His First Start of 2025 in Week 12
Brock Wright

Sets Career-High in Targets; Lined Up for More Work?
Kimani Vidal

Struggles Again and Faces Role Uncertainty After Bye
Dak Prescott

in Full Command Monday Night With Four Touchdown Passes
Quentin Johnston

Posts Zero Catches During Offensive Collapse
George Pickens

Erupts for 144 Yards, Touchdown in Monday Night Win
CeeDee Lamb

George Pickens Benched for First Drive
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Singleton

Broncos Optimistic Patrick Surtain, Alex Singleton Will Return After the Bye
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful Again in Week 12
Shedeur Sanders

Expected to Make First Career Start in Week 12
Josh Jacobs

Dealing With Knee Contusion
Mikael Granlund

Unavailable Monday
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
Conor Garland

Misses Monday's Game
Eetu Luostarinen

Out on Monday
Drake London

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Drew Doughty

Listed as Week-to-Week
Ja'Marr Chase

Being Suspended for One Game for Unsportsmanlike Conduct
John Carlson

a Game-Time Call Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

Out Week-to-Week
Charlie McAvoy

Out Against Hurricanes
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Mitchell Marner

Establishes Vegas Record Sunday
Mats Zuccarello

Logs Two Assists in Overtime Victory
Lucas Raymond

Leads Red Wings to Victory at MSG
Quinn Hughes

Delivers Four Assists in Sunday's Win
Conor Garland

Limited to Handful of Minutes Sunday
Ryan Hartman

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year

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