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Chris Paul is a Rocket - What's the Fantasy Fallout?

After the underwhelming NBA playoffs, an overwhelming offseason has taken the NBA and fantasy world by storm. With the Celtics swapping their 1st pick for more assets and the 3rd pick with the 76ers, Jimmy Butler and Paul George finding new homes, and former huge talent PGs that fell out of favor with their original teams, D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio, being dealt, it's been a wild ride, and the free agency has just started a few hours ago.

But the move with most impact on the NBA title chase and probably fantasy values too must be the trade that sent Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, a 2018 protected first-round draft pick and reportedly a few hundred other players out of which only Montrezl Harrell was worth mentioning fantasy-wise so far.

I won't get into who got the better deal in this trade, nor will I analyze the situation in which both teams are and the reasons behind this deal. We will just take a look ahead at what this trade does to fantasy values of key players on both teams.

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Houston Rockets Implications

James Harden

James Harden was at or near the top of most leagues' fantasy rankings, and deservedly so. His 29.1 PTS on 44.0 FG% and 84.7 FT% (on 10.9 attempts) with 3.2 3PM, 8.1 REB, 11.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK and 5.7 TO per game were insanely useful for his owners last year. Heck, they were enough to put him into serious contention for the MVP award against Russell Westbrook's historic, triple-double averaging season.

But now, with Paul coming to town, two ball-dominant superstars will have to learn to work together and share the ball. Even though players of such caliber and basketball IQ will certainly develop chemistry and find a way to successfully co-exist, something will have to give.

We should expect The Beard's 34.1% usage rate to take a drop. He will probably have less shot attempts which will result in lower points and threes. But with Paul there to create shots for Harden, so with more catch-and-shoot attempts and less pull-up jumpers off the dribble, his FG efficiency should go way up. He might even be able to keep up similar scoring on much fewer shots if his efficiency truly skyrockets.

Also, Houston was tied at the 3rd spot for assists per game in the NBA last season with 25.2. The Beard had 11.2 and CP3 had 9.2 last season. That's almost as much as the entire Houston team last year. So with Harden moving back to SG, his assists will certainly take a hit. On the other hand, he probably won't lead the league in turnovers anymore.

So, Harden's counting stats will probably be lower than what we are accustomed to with Paul in town, and he will have a harder time single-handedly winning you all the counting stat categories, but having such a quality point guard by his side will certainly help his efficiency. It's a little less scary after watching Durant switch from the Thunder to the Warriors and make up for his loss of usage with better efficiency.

Chris Paul

I don't see Paul's stats changing too much. The Rockets high-paced offense, which is 3rd in the league with 102.54, compared to the Clippers' 17th at 98.22, should provide him with enough extra opportunities on the attack to compensate for sharing the ball with Harden.

Although he will have to adapt to the Rockets' style of either shooting the ball from beyond the three-point stripe or finishing inside the paint (CP3 was one of the players with the most 2-point pull-up jumpers in the NBA last season), with Paul having Harden to handle the ball and attack the rim, he should have more open shots. And his shooting also improves when he doesn't have to create his own shot, so it's reasonable to expect a few more threes and even higher percentages from Paul next season.

He might not score as much as he did with the Clippers, Harden may take a few assists away from Paul and more possessions per game might result in a few more turnovers, but with such a big change in real life, in fantasy it's not too huge.

The Houston's Supporting Cast

These are the guys who will probably profit the most. Catch-and-shoot experts Ryan Anderson and 6th man of the year Eric Gordon should flourish with another guy on court who can give them wide open looks, assuming they're not also ditched in an effort to get a third star on board (Paul Millsap, maybe?). Trevor Ariza should also see some more shots from Paul's passes, so all three of them could see their shooting percentages take a leap in the right direction.

Paul's arrival should have most impact on Clint Capela. The young center will finally have a pass-first pick-and-roll wizard to boost his scoring and shooting percentages with Paul bringing Lob City from LA to Houston.

Also, with Houston giving away so many players in this deal it will be interesting how they fill out the rest of their roster. If they manage to get cheap quality players, like veteran Nene, those players could see some increased minutes with Houston's depth taking a hit in favor of quality of the first unit. If Houston's bench remains weak, all of the players mentioned above could be seeing heavy minutes, especially in those close, important games.

 

Los Angeles Clippers Implications

Blake Griffin

It appears that Blake Griffin will remain with the Clippers under a new monster contract. He will now be the focal point of their attack. Even though his shot efficiency without Paul to create for him should drop, the increase of shot attempts should result in more points.

With Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley in town, and Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers also being able to hit long range shots, Griffin should still have plenty of floor spreaders to play his inside game, so the departures of Paul and (probably) J.J. Redick shouldn't do too much harm there.

Griffin could take over a point-forward role and assume some of the duties that Paul had in distributing the ball on offense. That should increase his assists above his already great 4.9 per game. But with more power comes more responsibility, so his turnovers will probably rise, too. Altogether, Blake could be in for a monster counting stats season, but there will be questions about his efficiency. If the efficiency isn't too bad, he could provide first round return.

DeAndre Jordan

Probably the biggest "fantasy loser" of this trade is DeAndre Jordan. With no more Paul to throw those alley-oops to him, I doubt he can maintain his insane 71.4 FG%. He might get the ball in his hands more though but he is not a big offensive threat on his own at the moment, and I'm not sure that he can keep scoring 12.7 points a game if no one else steps up and feeds him with the lobs he is so used to hammering in.

The Rest of the Clippers Pack

The new arrivals Beverley and Williams should both have nice contributions for the Clippers, with LA's starting guards (Paul and Reddick) both expected to leave in free agency. They probably won't be shooting that many wide open threes with no Harden to draw defenders, but their usage should rise and with it a few more shot attempts, points and  assists.

There has been some unconfirmed chatter that Austin Rivers has been getting special treatment from his coach and father Doc Rivers. Whether that's true or not, Austin should have an increased role next season and it's up to him how well will he help fill the void left by Paul. He may even be the full-time starter alongside Beverley, with Lou sliding into his traditional 6th man role.

It's still unclear what the Clippers will do with all of the players that they received in return, and there are just too many IFs at the moment to put everything into perspective from their side. Will Sam Dekker have a prominent rotation role? What about Harrell? We'll need to wait out free agency.

As it stands now, Griffin will be the lone star on this roster and if he remains healthy, he could play heavy minutes and get nice volume stats. He could even come close to some triple-doubles if he decides to make his long time partner Paul proud.

 

More 2017-18 Fantasy Basketball Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kerry Carpenter

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Receives Qualifying Offer
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has Team Option Declined
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Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Bobby Portis

Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
James Harden

Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
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Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
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Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
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Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
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Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
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Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
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NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
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Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
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Declining Player Option
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Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
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Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
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Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
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Joey Logano

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Chase Burns

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Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
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Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
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Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
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Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
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Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
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Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

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Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Charles Oliveira

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Joshua Van

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Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

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Felipe Lima

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Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

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Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
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Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
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Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
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Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
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