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Chris Paul is a Rocket - What's the Fantasy Fallout?

After the underwhelming NBA playoffs, an overwhelming offseason has taken the NBA and fantasy world by storm. With the Celtics swapping their 1st pick for more assets and the 3rd pick with the 76ers, Jimmy Butler and Paul George finding new homes, and former huge talent PGs that fell out of favor with their original teams, D'Angelo Russell and Ricky Rubio, being dealt, it's been a wild ride, and the free agency has just started a few hours ago.

But the move with most impact on the NBA title chase and probably fantasy values too must be the trade that sent Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, a 2018 protected first-round draft pick and reportedly a few hundred other players out of which only Montrezl Harrell was worth mentioning fantasy-wise so far.

I won't get into who got the better deal in this trade, nor will I analyze the situation in which both teams are and the reasons behind this deal. We will just take a look ahead at what this trade does to fantasy values of key players on both teams.

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Houston Rockets Implications

James Harden

James Harden was at or near the top of most leagues' fantasy rankings, and deservedly so. His 29.1 PTS on 44.0 FG% and 84.7 FT% (on 10.9 attempts) with 3.2 3PM, 8.1 REB, 11.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK and 5.7 TO per game were insanely useful for his owners last year. Heck, they were enough to put him into serious contention for the MVP award against Russell Westbrook's historic, triple-double averaging season.

But now, with Paul coming to town, two ball-dominant superstars will have to learn to work together and share the ball. Even though players of such caliber and basketball IQ will certainly develop chemistry and find a way to successfully co-exist, something will have to give.

We should expect The Beard's 34.1% usage rate to take a drop. He will probably have less shot attempts which will result in lower points and threes. But with Paul there to create shots for Harden, so with more catch-and-shoot attempts and less pull-up jumpers off the dribble, his FG efficiency should go way up. He might even be able to keep up similar scoring on much fewer shots if his efficiency truly skyrockets.

Also, Houston was tied at the 3rd spot for assists per game in the NBA last season with 25.2. The Beard had 11.2 and CP3 had 9.2 last season. That's almost as much as the entire Houston team last year. So with Harden moving back to SG, his assists will certainly take a hit. On the other hand, he probably won't lead the league in turnovers anymore.

So, Harden's counting stats will probably be lower than what we are accustomed to with Paul in town, and he will have a harder time single-handedly winning you all the counting stat categories, but having such a quality point guard by his side will certainly help his efficiency. It's a little less scary after watching Durant switch from the Thunder to the Warriors and make up for his loss of usage with better efficiency.

Chris Paul

I don't see Paul's stats changing too much. The Rockets high-paced offense, which is 3rd in the league with 102.54, compared to the Clippers' 17th at 98.22, should provide him with enough extra opportunities on the attack to compensate for sharing the ball with Harden.

Although he will have to adapt to the Rockets' style of either shooting the ball from beyond the three-point stripe or finishing inside the paint (CP3 was one of the players with the most 2-point pull-up jumpers in the NBA last season), with Paul having Harden to handle the ball and attack the rim, he should have more open shots. And his shooting also improves when he doesn't have to create his own shot, so it's reasonable to expect a few more threes and even higher percentages from Paul next season.

He might not score as much as he did with the Clippers, Harden may take a few assists away from Paul and more possessions per game might result in a few more turnovers, but with such a big change in real life, in fantasy it's not too huge.

The Houston's Supporting Cast

These are the guys who will probably profit the most. Catch-and-shoot experts Ryan Anderson and 6th man of the year Eric Gordon should flourish with another guy on court who can give them wide open looks, assuming they're not also ditched in an effort to get a third star on board (Paul Millsap, maybe?). Trevor Ariza should also see some more shots from Paul's passes, so all three of them could see their shooting percentages take a leap in the right direction.

Paul's arrival should have most impact on Clint Capela. The young center will finally have a pass-first pick-and-roll wizard to boost his scoring and shooting percentages with Paul bringing Lob City from LA to Houston.

Also, with Houston giving away so many players in this deal it will be interesting how they fill out the rest of their roster. If they manage to get cheap quality players, like veteran Nene, those players could see some increased minutes with Houston's depth taking a hit in favor of quality of the first unit. If Houston's bench remains weak, all of the players mentioned above could be seeing heavy minutes, especially in those close, important games.

 

Los Angeles Clippers Implications

Blake Griffin

It appears that Blake Griffin will remain with the Clippers under a new monster contract. He will now be the focal point of their attack. Even though his shot efficiency without Paul to create for him should drop, the increase of shot attempts should result in more points.

With Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley in town, and Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers also being able to hit long range shots, Griffin should still have plenty of floor spreaders to play his inside game, so the departures of Paul and (probably) J.J. Redick shouldn't do too much harm there.

Griffin could take over a point-forward role and assume some of the duties that Paul had in distributing the ball on offense. That should increase his assists above his already great 4.9 per game. But with more power comes more responsibility, so his turnovers will probably rise, too. Altogether, Blake could be in for a monster counting stats season, but there will be questions about his efficiency. If the efficiency isn't too bad, he could provide first round return.

DeAndre Jordan

Probably the biggest "fantasy loser" of this trade is DeAndre Jordan. With no more Paul to throw those alley-oops to him, I doubt he can maintain his insane 71.4 FG%. He might get the ball in his hands more though but he is not a big offensive threat on his own at the moment, and I'm not sure that he can keep scoring 12.7 points a game if no one else steps up and feeds him with the lobs he is so used to hammering in.

The Rest of the Clippers Pack

The new arrivals Beverley and Williams should both have nice contributions for the Clippers, with LA's starting guards (Paul and Reddick) both expected to leave in free agency. They probably won't be shooting that many wide open threes with no Harden to draw defenders, but their usage should rise and with it a few more shot attempts, points and  assists.

There has been some unconfirmed chatter that Austin Rivers has been getting special treatment from his coach and father Doc Rivers. Whether that's true or not, Austin should have an increased role next season and it's up to him how well will he help fill the void left by Paul. He may even be the full-time starter alongside Beverley, with Lou sliding into his traditional 6th man role.

It's still unclear what the Clippers will do with all of the players that they received in return, and there are just too many IFs at the moment to put everything into perspective from their side. Will Sam Dekker have a prominent rotation role? What about Harrell? We'll need to wait out free agency.

As it stands now, Griffin will be the lone star on this roster and if he remains healthy, he could play heavy minutes and get nice volume stats. He could even come close to some triple-doubles if he decides to make his long time partner Paul proud.

 

More 2017-18 Fantasy Basketball Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Luguentz Dort

Will Return Versus Charlotte
Darius Garland

Remains Out on Saturday Night
Zach Edey

Cleared to Make 2025 Debut on Saturday
Cedric Coward

Available Against Cleveland
Sam LaPorta

Placed on Injured Reserve
J.K. Dobbins

Will Undergo Season-Ending Surgery to Repair "Significant" Foot Injury
LaMelo Ball

Resting on Saturday Night
Collin Murray-Boyles

Uncertain for Saturday
Aaron Wiggins

Remains Out with Adductor Strain
Luguentz Dort

Questionable for Saturday
Jaylon Tyson

Set to Miss Third Straight Game
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Questionable on Saturday with a Wrist Sprain
Tyler Bertuzzi

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Exits Early with Knee Hyperextension
Andre Burakovsky

Available Saturday
Alex Nedeljkovic

Available for Saturday's Action
Filip Hronek

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Friday
Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Hurts Ankle in Friday's Win
Seth Jarvis

Not Expected to Be Out for Long
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Tari Eason

Injured on Friday Night
OG Anunoby

Suffers Hamstring Injury on Friday Night
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
NFL

Bill Belichick Won't Pursue NFL Head-Coaching Vacancies
Anthony Davis

Out Again on Friday
Khalil Shakir

in the Clear to Play in Week 11
P.J. Washington

Sidelined Against the Clippers
Dereck Lively II

Officially Active, Will Have a Minutes Cap
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Returning Versus the Hornets
LaMelo Ball

Back in the Lineup on Friday Night
Domantas Sabonis

Good to Play on Friday
Bam Knight

Considered Questionable for Week 11
Brian Thomas Jr.

Tagged as Questionable for Week 11
Christian Braun

To Miss At Least Six Weeks With An Ankle Sprain
Calvin Ridley

Listed as Questionable for Week 11
Zach Edey

Questionable To Make Season Debut
John Gibson

Fine for Saturday
Kaiden Guhle

Ruled Out for 8-10 Weeks
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Alex Newhook

to Miss Four Months With Broken Ankle
Marco Rossi

Out Week-to-Week
J.K. Dobbins

Out in Week 11 and for "Foreseeable Future"
Zach Hyman

Set for Season Debut Saturday
Jack Hughes

Sustains Non-Hockey Hand Injury
Quinn Hughes

a Game-Time Decision Friday
Rashod Bateman

Ruled Out for Week 11
Sam LaPorta

Ruled Out for Week 11 With Back Injury
Isiah Pacheco

Officially Ruled Out for Week 11
Trey Hendrickson

Shemar Stewart Both Out for Week 11
Jaxson Dart

Officially Ruled Out for Week 11 Due to Concussion
Darius Slayton

Ruled Out for Sunday
Davante Adams

Questionable for Sunday but Expected to Play
Drake London

Questionable vs Panthers
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Garrett Wilson

Jets Expect Garrett Wilson to Play Again This Season
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Lamar Jackson

Ready to Roll for Sunday
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Quentin Johnston

Questionable to Play Against Jaguars
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Jaxson Dart

"on Track" in the Concussion Protocol
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Chris Godwin

Missing Another Game
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Shane Pinto

Lands Four-Year Extension
Thomas Chabot

to Sit Out Two Weeks
William Karlsson

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Newhook

Injured in Big Loss
Jeff Skinner

Hurt Early on Thursday
John Gibson

Exits With Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Kaapo Kakko

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Thursday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Dylan Samberg

Makes Season Debut Thursday
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC

RANKINGS

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RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
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C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP