June 8, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes Whit Merrifield & Marco Estrada to determine their value over the rest of the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

At this point of the season, available players tend to fall into one of two categories. The first is a breakout performer on a weaker club no one is paying attention to, such as Whit Merrifield of the Kansas City Royals. The second is a boring veteran player who seems to be performing as he was expected to despite significant peripheral changes. Toronto's Marco Estrada falls into this category.

This explains how these guys slip through the cracks, but does not guarantee that they will actually help your roster. Only a thorough case-by-case analysis can truly separate the champs from the chumps. Which tag best fits the pair of players above?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, KC) 38% Owned

If you haven't been paying attention to Kansas City baseball, you may not know that Merrifield is slashing .299/.350/.490 with six homers and six swipes (one CS) since getting a starting job. Fantasy owners are always on the hunt for steals, and Merrifield's look real. He swiped 28 bags (five CS) between two levels last year, and 32 (nine CS) in 2015. Merrifield should be a 25-30 SB guy with regular PAs.

Merrifield looks like he can deliver more than just steals though. His .299 average is rooted in a .311 BABIP and 12.4% K%. The BABIP seems sustainable, as Merrifield is great at avoiding pop-ups (2.1% IFFB%) and has plus legs that should be able to beat out grounders. His current BABIP on grounders is just .245, likely giving him some BABIP upside. His 22.4% LD% may head south, but improved performance on ground balls plus more productive liners (current line drive BABIP of .643) should keep his BABIP roughly where it is now.

Merrifield's strikeout rate is much lower than it was last year (21.7% vs. 12.4%) despite virtually identical SwStr% marks (8.3% vs. 8.2%), suggesting that he might K a little more often in the future. However, Merrifield's eye is around average (32.6% chase) and he rarely struck out in the minors (11.1% K% in 594 Triple-A PAs in 2015, his last full minor league campaign). Merrifield's plate discipline profile is solid, so his true talent K% is probably closer to his 2017 performance.

Batters who reach base and steal are plenty valuable in fantasy, but Merrifield may be developing a power stroke too. His FB% skyrocketed relative to last year (29.8% to 38.4%), an especially encouraging sign with no corresponding increase in pop-ups. He's also pulling his airborne baseballs at an above average rate (25% versus 15.7% last season), making it easier for him to hit a homer. His average airborne exit velocity of 93 mph is not elite, but solidly above average. The resulting 12.5% HR/FB is not absurd. A 20-HR pace is possible the rest of the way.

That makes Merrifield a 20/30 threat with a plus average, a package that becomes even more appealing now that he has usurped the terrible Alcides Escobar for leadoff duties. Merrifield also has OF eligibility in most formats (15 games last year), and more lenient leagues may qualify him for 3B as well (five). He's a must-own fantasy asset who is currently available in far too many leagues.

Verdict: Champ

 
Marco Estrada (SP, TOR) 89% Owned

Estrada is 4-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 3.39 FIP this season, but his profile is much more interesting than simply expecting his FIP moving forward. Estrada has kept up his extreme fly ball approach (46% FB%), but his BABIP has increased from a career rate of .260 to .314 this year. He's also discovered the value of Ks, as his 27.6% K% is much higher than both last year's 22.8% rate and his career 22.3% number. What is going on here?

The Ks seem like a fluke. Estrada is throwing more heaters (37.6% last year, 49.5% this) and changeups (29.7% to 36.6%) at the expense of his cutter (22.1% to 7.5%) and curve (10.7% to 6.7%). This is a good switch, as the cutter's 10.3% SwStr% is nowhere near high enough to justify its low 39.2% Zone% and 33.9% chase rates. The curve is terrible, offering a laughable 3.6% SwStr%, 22.7% chase rate, and a batting average against of .455. The change is elite (19.8% SwStr%, 39.5% chase, 48.8% Zone%), and throwing more of them seems to be helping the heat play up. It's up to an 8.7% SwStr% from 6% last season despite spending more time in the zone (53.3% Zone%, 50.6% last year). What's not to like?

The problem is that the above paragraph details every pitch in Estrada's arsenal. The cutter and curve are both garbage, leaving Estrada as essentially a two-pitch pitcher. The heater could regress at any time, and isn't a great K weapon even when it's hot. There is no way Estrada can sustain a strikeout rate this strong with just one above average pitch to work with.

That will put more balls into play, a situation that has not been kind to Estrada so far. His increased BABIP is partially his own fault, as his IFFB% (8.2%) is roughly half of what it was last year (16.8%). He is also allowing more line drives than usual (19.4% vs. career 17.8%), an increase capable of harming any hurler's BABIP. Batters are also making harder airborne contact (93.5 mph vs. 92.8 last year) and hitting more Barrels (8.9% Brls/BBE vs. 7.2% last season) than they have before.

It's not all Estrada's fault though, as the defense behind him has been terrible. The Blue Jays have -20 Defensive Runs Saved this year, third most in baseball. Estrada is disproportionately affected by his outfielders, where Jose Bautista (-7) and Ezequiel Carrera (-8) have been brutal. Kevin Pillar's superlative glovework was supposed to make up for the statues on either side of him, but his two DRS are more above average than great. The result is Estrada's worst fly ball BABIP since 2012 (.138) and a BABIP of .850 on line drives. For context, he posted a .655 mark on liners last year.

Estrada might get more wins now that Toronto is hitting bombs again, but his strikeouts are unsustainable. The inflated BABIP also appears real. Rogers Centre was always a pretty terrible place to be an extreme fly ball guy, so Estrada would become an interesting buy-low in another uniform with better outfielders. Toronto probably won't move him though, dictating that you probably should while he still has a little value.

Verdict: Chump

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