RADIO
I hope you're not sick of these two-game slates because we have quite a few of them left as we ride out the NBA playoffs schedule. Normally, I'm much more excited to play when we have more players to choose from, but FanDuel has made sure we stay interested by really juicing up the guaranteed prize pools. One of the main contest tonight has an $8 entry fee and the prize is $100,000 to first, and the rest of the top 10 will be compensated handsomely. Vegas, anyone?
Oh, speaking of Vegas, I have some lines to share with you. We've got eerily similar over/under (point total projections, essentially), with the Cavs and Raptors at 213 and the Rockets and Spurs at 214. As for favorites, the Cavs are favored by 7.5 as of this morning, and the Spurs - who were absolutely blown out in game one - are actually six point favorites. As far as stacking opportunities go, the matchups and upside are fairly similar. I personally think there is a lot of value in the Spurs in this revenge game, as the faster pace the Rockets operate with will lead to more possessions for that offensive unit.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/3/17. The picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays.
Let's let tonight be our night.
FanDuel DFS Guards
Kyle Lowry - PG, at CLE ($8,600)
Lowry didn't have an amazing performance in game one, but it was a welcome change in performance as he had struggled greatly in the Raptors first round series against the Bucks. Luckily for Lowry backers like myself, he has a much easier matchup this time around with the Greak Freak in the rear-view mirror and Kyrie Irving defending him now. One of the biggest things I am chasing in basketball DFS - now more than ever with some rotations being shortended for the playoffs - is minutes. Lowry leads all point guards tonight in projected minutes and he's second in Usage rate at 25 and is second in season-long PER at 22.9. He offers the nice mix of a steady-ish floor and the upside I seek in tournament formats, thanks to his ability to stuff the stat sheet even if his shot isn't falling at a favorable percentage.
Also Consider: Deron Williams - PG, vs TOR ($2,500)
Lou Williams - SG, vs SAS ($4,900)
To afford the top dogs tonight, you have to find value + upside somewhere. I think that combination best manifests itself tonight in the form of Mr. Lou Williams. For a player with a six-man type role, Lou bounces around from the first unit and the second, typically racking up 30+ minutes, double digit shot attempts, and he's somewhat blowout-proof. Of all the shooting guards available tonight, Williams Usage projection of 25+ is topped only be DeMar DeRozan and James Harden.
Also Consider: Danny Green - SG, vs HOU ($3,800)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Kawhi Leonard - SF, vs HOU ($10,900)
With similar projection numbers tonight - in ceiling, floor and everything else - I think the decision between Kawhi comes down to price and preference. I prefer Kawhi a bit as I think his point total will be very similar and his price allows me to fit in studs and above-average plays more easily than rostering LeBron does. That said, in cash games, it would be wise to fit both in your roster. They are nearly locks for 50 points, and in addition to that, the dropoff to the next best plays is quite steep and it would be very difficult to make up those points at other positions. Clearly, Kawhi and his teammates did not perform well in game one, but even in that sloppiness, Leonard only failed to meet salary expectations by a point. Kawhi has been incredibly efficient this seaosn in his time on the court (27 PER) and of all the small forwards in action tonight, Leonard has the highest Usage rate projection (32) and trails only King James in projected minutes.
Also Consider: LeBron James - SF, vs TOR ($12,700)
Serge Ibaka - PF, at CLE ($6,200)
Serge is starting to find his rhythm right when Toronto needs him most. His size, quickness and athleticism create a mismatch for the slower Kevin Love, and I think it's something the Raptors will look to exploit more as they try to even the series at one a piece this evening. As for Ibaka compared to the rest of the options tonight at power forward, he has a nice blend of what I'm looking for in projected minutes, efficiency, matchup, ceiling and he can fill it up with steals and blocks. He's top three at the position in fantasy points per minute, Usage projection and minutes projection - plus, he's much more affordable than Kevin Love.
Also Consider: Ryan Anderson - PF, at SAS ($4,600)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Clint Capela - C, vs SAS ($6,200)
If you're willing to pay above the median price for a big man today, I think you have to take a long look at Capela and what he was able to accomplish in game one. He was the highest scoring center of the day on Monday - a day that included the same two matchups we have tonight - putting up 40.4 FanDuel points and needing only 24 minutes to do so. In watching that game, you could tell that the slower, older big men of the Spurs were completely outmatched by Capela's quickness around the rim, as he was able to convert several open looks during his 8-for-10 from the field performance. Of all the big men taking the floor tonight, Capela leads them all in PER (21.4) and in fantasy points per minute (1.07).
Also Consider: Tristan Thompson - C, vs TOR ($5,700)
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