January 15, 2017

Ed Sutelan takes a look at the Jorge Soler and Wade Davis trade, including whether they are viable 2017 fantasy baseball draft picks, values and sleepers.

On December 7, 2016, the Royals dealt away All-Star closer Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for 24-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler. Most believed the trade to be mutually beneficial for all parties involved as Soler appeared to be headed towards more playing time, Davis was headed to a team with a chance to win a World Series in 2017, the Royals acquired a young outfielder with many years of team control remaining and the Cubs acquired a closer to replace Aroldis Chapman.

Later this offseason the Royals officially dealt away outfielder Jarrod Dyson, leaving right field mostly open for Soler with only Paulo Orlando remaining to challenge him for starting playing time.

This article will examine the fantasy implications for the players involved in the deal and the value of any other players who might've been impacted by the deal.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

Jorge Soler - 2017 Fantasy Outlook

In Chicago, Soler was blocked in right field by $184 million man Jason Heyward, in left field by Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras (all of whom are better bats than Soler) and in center field by Albert Almora, Kris Bryant and possibly Jason Heyward depending on which direction the team wants to go in. The point is, the Cubs had a ton of people who can play outfield and it was clear Soler would primarily be used as a utility bat for the club.

Now in Kansas City, the only person to potentially stand in his way is Paulo Orlando, a 31-year-old outfielder who played in 128 games, slashing .302/.329/.405 with a 21.7% strikeout rate, measly 2.7% walk rate, only five home runs and 14 steals to go along with mediocre defensive grades. And in the direction the Royals are heading in, it appears far more likely they will play the much younger, more promising bat of Soler.

Though Soler's .238 average last season left plenty to be desired, most of his other numbers showed promise. He showed improvements in all categories outside of batting average. In 15 fewer games than 2015 and 150 fewer plate appearances, Soler bashed 12 home runs and increased his walk rate from 7.9% to 11.7% and decreased his strikeout rate from 30.0% to 25.0%. His on-base and slugging percentages also saw increases from .324 to .333 in on-base and .399 to .436 in slugging. The key to this success was a more selective approach to the plate, evidenced by his o-swing% going down from 32.8% to 25.5%.

The combination of his improved performance from 2015-2016 with the increase in playing time makes Soler a possible sleeper candidate entering 2017. With a more consistent role on the team, Soler should be expected to continue to increase his production. The only red flag owners should be wary of his the park factor. He is going from the seventh friendliest ballpark for right-handed home runs to the 25th friendliest. All told though, Soler's production can be expected to increase.

Wade Davis - 2017 Fantasy Outlook

Davis is one of those relievers where little can happen to drastically impact his value and this trade is one of them. In theory, it should help his value because he is going from a team that will hover around the .500 mark in 2017 to arguably the best on-paper team in baseball and the reigning World Champions, but who really knows. The Cubs won 103 games last season, eight more than any other team in baseball. Yet for all their wins, they only accumulated 38 saves (22nd most in baseball). Now on the bright side, the Cubs did accumulate 23 saves during the second half of the season, coinciding with the arrival of Aroldis Chapman.

On the bright side, owners can expect to receive elite production out of Davis, even if his performance has been declining as of late. Davis' K% has been on a steady decline from 2014 as it has gone from 39.1% to 31.1% to 26.7%. His walk rate has remained relatively consistent as has his home run tendencies in that both are very minimal. His walks did spike up to 9.1% last year, but the key in hitter friendly Wrigley Field is coming the ball out of the air, something Davis has experienced no troubles doing as evidenced by his 33.0% FB rate, down 8.1% from last season and his increased groundball rate from 38.4% in 2015 to 48.6% in 2016. Opponents' contact rates have also taken a dip from 74.7% to 72.8% between the two seasons despite a 1.8% increase in swing rate.

The only real prominent concern is the .8 mph decrease in fastball velocity. At 31 years old and coming off a right forearm strain that cost him a couple weeks during the season, Davis may not be able to bring back that velocity. But for fantasy owners, his production is not likely to plummet off a serious cliff given his history of success. Dynasty owners might want to try and sell him while his value is at his highest, but owners in 2017 redraft leagues should not be too scared away to avoid drafting him.

Who knows how many save opportunities Davis will have, but he will begin the season as the undisputed closer for Chicago. Hector Rondon is not going to challenge him in any way shape or form for the role of closer. Owners should count on 60-70 innings with 30-40 saves, 60-70 punchouts and an ERA around 2.00. Don't expect the trade to drastically alter his fantasy value.

Others Not Involved in the Trade

The notable players impacted by this deal are Paulo Orlando and any reliever for the Cubs not named Wade Davis. Had Soler stayed in Chicago, Orlando would've been able to count on a platoon option with Dyson (who likely would not have been traded away) like last year given the age of both players and skillset of both players. But with Soler now in KC, Orlando will be relegated to a bench role. He will have no value in 2017 unless traded away.

As for the relievers in Chicago, it is clear now that no one will have a shot at saves unless Davis is terrible (unlikely) or hurt. Once it was clear Chapman would not be returning, Rondon briefly appeared to be headed towards save chances until Davis came into town. Rondon is still a solid reliever and Carl Edwards Jr. might still have value given his propensity to strike out gaudy amounts of batters, but none will be given any opportunity for saves unless something crazy happens.