X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Implications of the Jorge Soler, Wade Davis Trade

By mikelachance816 [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Ed Sutelan takes a look at the Jorge Soler and Wade Davis trade, including whether they are viable 2017 fantasy baseball draft picks, values and sleepers.

On December 7, 2016, the Royals dealt away All-Star closer Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for 24-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler. Most believed the trade to be mutually beneficial for all parties involved as Soler appeared to be headed towards more playing time, Davis was headed to a team with a chance to win a World Series in 2017, the Royals acquired a young outfielder with many years of team control remaining and the Cubs acquired a closer to replace Aroldis Chapman.

Later this offseason the Royals officially dealt away outfielder Jarrod Dyson, leaving right field mostly open for Soler with only Paulo Orlando remaining to challenge him for starting playing time.

This article will examine the fantasy implications for the players involved in the deal and the value of any other players who might've been impacted by the deal.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Jorge Soler - 2017 Fantasy Outlook

In Chicago, Soler was blocked in right field by $184 million man Jason Heyward, in left field by Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras (all of whom are better bats than Soler) and in center field by Albert Almora, Kris Bryant and possibly Jason Heyward depending on which direction the team wants to go in. The point is, the Cubs had a ton of people who can play outfield and it was clear Soler would primarily be used as a utility bat for the club.

Now in Kansas City, the only person to potentially stand in his way is Paulo Orlando, a 31-year-old outfielder who played in 128 games, slashing .302/.329/.405 with a 21.7% strikeout rate, measly 2.7% walk rate, only five home runs and 14 steals to go along with mediocre defensive grades. And in the direction the Royals are heading in, it appears far more likely they will play the much younger, more promising bat of Soler.

Though Soler's .238 average last season left plenty to be desired, most of his other numbers showed promise. He showed improvements in all categories outside of batting average. In 15 fewer games than 2015 and 150 fewer plate appearances, Soler bashed 12 home runs and increased his walk rate from 7.9% to 11.7% and decreased his strikeout rate from 30.0% to 25.0%. His on-base and slugging percentages also saw increases from .324 to .333 in on-base and .399 to .436 in slugging. The key to this success was a more selective approach to the plate, evidenced by his o-swing% going down from 32.8% to 25.5%.

The combination of his improved performance from 2015-2016 with the increase in playing time makes Soler a possible sleeper candidate entering 2017. With a more consistent role on the team, Soler should be expected to continue to increase his production. The only red flag owners should be wary of his the park factor. He is going from the seventh friendliest ballpark for right-handed home runs to the 25th friendliest. All told though, Soler's production can be expected to increase.

 

Wade Davis - 2017 Fantasy Outlook

Davis is one of those relievers where little can happen to drastically impact his value and this trade is one of them. In theory, it should help his value because he is going from a team that will hover around the .500 mark in 2017 to arguably the best on-paper team in baseball and the reigning World Champions, but who really knows. The Cubs won 103 games last season, eight more than any other team in baseball. Yet for all their wins, they only accumulated 38 saves (22nd most in baseball). Now on the bright side, the Cubs did accumulate 23 saves during the second half of the season, coinciding with the arrival of Aroldis Chapman.

On the bright side, owners can expect to receive elite production out of Davis, even if his performance has been declining as of late. Davis' K% has been on a steady decline from 2014 as it has gone from 39.1% to 31.1% to 26.7%. His walk rate has remained relatively consistent as has his home run tendencies in that both are very minimal. His walks did spike up to 9.1% last year, but the key in hitter friendly Wrigley Field is coming the ball out of the air, something Davis has experienced no troubles doing as evidenced by his 33.0% FB rate, down 8.1% from last season and his increased groundball rate from 38.4% in 2015 to 48.6% in 2016. Opponents' contact rates have also taken a dip from 74.7% to 72.8% between the two seasons despite a 1.8% increase in swing rate.

The only real prominent concern is the .8 mph decrease in fastball velocity. At 31 years old and coming off a right forearm strain that cost him a couple weeks during the season, Davis may not be able to bring back that velocity. But for fantasy owners, his production is not likely to plummet off a serious cliff given his history of success. Dynasty owners might want to try and sell him while his value is at his highest, but owners in 2017 redraft leagues should not be too scared away to avoid drafting him.

Who knows how many save opportunities Davis will have, but he will begin the season as the undisputed closer for Chicago. Hector Rondon is not going to challenge him in any way shape or form for the role of closer. Owners should count on 60-70 innings with 30-40 saves, 60-70 punchouts and an ERA around 2.00. Don't expect the trade to drastically alter his fantasy value.

 

Others Not Involved in the Trade

The notable players impacted by this deal are Paulo Orlando and any reliever for the Cubs not named Wade Davis. Had Soler stayed in Chicago, Orlando would've been able to count on a platoon option with Dyson (who likely would not have been traded away) like last year given the age of both players and skillset of both players. But with Soler now in KC, Orlando will be relegated to a bench role. He will have no value in 2017 unless traded away.

As for the relievers in Chicago, it is clear now that no one will have a shot at saves unless Davis is terrible (unlikely) or hurt. Once it was clear Chapman would not be returning, Rondon briefly appeared to be headed towards save chances until Davis came into town. Rondon is still a solid reliever and Carl Edwards Jr. might still have value given his propensity to strike out gaudy amounts of batters, but none will be given any opportunity for saves unless something crazy happens.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davante Adams

Continues Red-Zone Dominance in Week 9 Win
Dalton Kincaid

Leads Bills in Receiving Yards in Week 9 Win
Geno Smith

Throws Four Touchdown Passes in Week 9
DJ Moore

Scores Two Touchdowns, Involved in Several Ways Sunday
Kyle Monangai

Capitalizes on Expanded Role in Week 9
Matthew Stafford

Adds Four More Touchdowns in Sunday's Win
Brock Bowers

Snags Three Touchdown Passes in Grand Return
Brian Thomas Jr.

Injures Ankle in Victory Against Las Vegas
Puka Nacua

Injures Ribs Sunday, Could Have Returned
Rico Dowdle

Delivers Another Huge Showing in Lead-Back Role
Cooper Kupp

Ruled Out for Week 9
Colston Loveland

Scores Game-Winning Touchdown
Joe Flacco

has Career Game in Loss to Bears
Tee Higgins

Scores Twice in Loss
Puka Nacua

Questionable to Return With Chest Injury
Kevin Porter Jr.

Suffers a Knee Injury, Out at Least Four Weeks
Christian McCaffrey

Looks Unstoppable in Win
Drake London

Delivers Hat Trick in Crushing Loss
Quinn Hughes

Returns to Practice Sunday
Caleb Williams

Scores Four Touchdowns as Bears Win Shootout
Roman Josi

Moved to Injured Reserve
Max Scherzer

Doesn't Plan on Retiring
Michael King

Becomes Free Agent After Declining Mutual Option
Ayo Dosunmu

Sidelined for Rematch Versus the Knicks
Cole Smith

to Miss 3-6 Weeks
Walker Kessler

to Undergo Further Testing on Injured Shoulder
Calvin Ridley

Titans Not Shopping Calvin Ridley Ahead of Trade Deadline
Ryan Reaves

Placed on Injured Reserve
NYI

Max Shabanov Not Close to Returning
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Getting the Start on Sunday Night
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Available Versus Utah
Tyson Foerster

Won't Play Sunday
Aaron Jones Sr.

Sprains AC Join, Expects to Play in Week 9
LaMelo Ball

Won't Play on Sunday Night
Sean Couturier

Returns to Flyers Lineup Sunday
Tucker Kraft

Packers Fear Tucker Kraft Suffered a Torn ACL
LaMelo Ball

Not Expected to Play on Sunday
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Named World Series MVP
Alex Bowman

Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
Noah Gragson

Should DFS Players Roster Noah Gragson At Phoenix?
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
Connor McDavid

Records Three Assists in Saturday's Win
Michael McDowell

an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
Vladimir Tarasenko

Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
Nick Suzuki

Collects Two More Apples
Timothy Liljegren

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Nick Cousins

Injured on Saturday
Christopher Tanev

Leaves on Stretcher Saturday
Kevon Looney

Questionable Versus OKC
Chase Briscoe

Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
Austin Dillon

Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option
Jakob Poeltl

to Remain Sidelined Sunday
Walker Kessler

Out on Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Listed as Questionable for Sunday
Dillon Brooks

to Miss Fourth Straight Game Sunday
Jalen Green

Unavailable Against Spurs
Norman Powell

Questionable to Suit Up Against Lakers
Jeremy Sochan

Remains Absent Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Still Out Sunday
Daniel Gafford

Makes Season Debut With Minutes Restriction
D'Angelo Russell

Cleared to Play Saturday
Deandre Ayton

Listed as Probable for Sunday
Paul George

Unavailable Sunday
Joel Embiid

to Sit Out Sunday's Action
Connor Brown

Won't Play on Saturday
Dylan Strome

Ready to Return Saturday
Sean Couturier

Out on Saturday
Ilya Mikheyev

Set to Return Saturday
Warren Foegele

Kings Place Warren Foegele on Injured Reserve
TOR

Chris Tanev Cleared for Action
William Nylander

Remains Out Saturday
Shohei Ohtani

to Start Game 7 of World Series
Alejandro Kirk

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Alejandro Kirk's Hand
Alejandro Kirk

Goes for X-Rays After Being Hit on the Hand
Mackenzie Blackwood

Set for Season Debut Saturday
Gleyber Torres

Undergoes Sports-Hernia Surgery
Bo Bichette

Not Expecting to Need Offseason Knee Surgery
George Springer

Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
David Onama

Set For UFC Vegas 110 Main Event
Steve Garcia

Returns At UFC Vegas 110
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Set For Co-Main Event
Ante Delija

In Search For His Second UFC Win
Themba Gorimbo

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 110
Jeremiah Wells

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Arizona State Quarterback Sam Leavitt Out for the Season
Isaac Dulgarian

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Frunza

Looks For His First UFC Win
Charles Radtke

Looks To Bounce Back
Allan Nascimento

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 110 Main Card
Cody Durden

In Dire Need Of Victory
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
CFB

Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP