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Around this time last year, there was considerable buzz surrounding rookie running back Bishop Sankey. Sankey automatically became a trendy sleeper within the fantasy community, but never met the expectations placed on him. Although he might not have nearly as much hype, rookie wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham is another player selected by the Tennessee Titans that should be considered a sleeper candidate.
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Green-Beckham was selected in the second round of the 2015 draft out of the University of Missouri. The knock on him has been his off the field issues. A series of incidents that included marijuana use and a forced entry accusation led to his dismissal from Missouri. That unfortunate set of circumstances contributed to his slide into the second round of the draft, especially when you consider the fact that a whopping seven wide receivers had already been selected before him. There's a strong possibility that if he had been able to stay out of trouble and finish his time at Missouri he would have been drafted higher, resulting in a lot more fanfare surrounding his upcoming rookie season.
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Rookies often get overhyped as it is, so it's actually refreshing to be able to talk up a guy who is being overlooked. When it comes to evaluating a player's fantasy value, you have to balance three key components: talent, opportunity, and risk. We've already established that this is a player who probably would have been drafted higher if not for his personal issues, so the talent is there. The opportunity for Green-Beckham to become a contributing pass catcher is enormous. The Titans have utilized a random assortment of wide receivers over the years with very few, if any, actually breaking away from the pack. Tennessee brought in veterans Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas to complement their younger talents in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, although Hunter may not see the field due to some legal problems of his own. Nicks has been on a severe decline since the 2012 season, while Douglas has only ever been viewed as a non-traditional handcuff to Julio Jones and Roddy White in Atlanta.
Hunter and Wright have been sleepers in their own right but haven't experienced a real breakout. Neither receiver cracked 1,000 receiving yards last year and the two combined for just nine touchdowns. Sure, a decent amount of that can be attributed to shaky quarterback play, but the most important aspect of this group is that although there are four "names" Green-Beckham has to compete with, none of them have any legitimate claim to the WR1 spot in Tennessee. It's an open competition at the wide receiver position and Green-Beckham will have the opportunity to win it outright.
That leaves us with risk. There's always going to be a certain amount of risk when drafting a rookie in fantasy, but Dorial Green-Beckham is extremely low-risk given his current ranking at WR50 or later. You'd essentially be taking him as your last bench player. Assuming you wait until the last two rounds to draft your defense and kicker (which you should), that's what, a 14th-round pick? You have nothing to lose taking a flier on a guy that could turn out to be the number one receiving option on an improving offense. The absolute worst case scenario is he doesn't contribute for the first few weeks and you drop him for the roster spot. There's a considerably lower amount of risk with a guy like Green-Beckham than say Amari Cooper, a rookie you'll likely have to draft as a WR2/flex play in the middle rounds.
I tend to stay away from rookies in general, but it's hard to pass up owning Dorial Green-Beckham this year. He's by no means a lock to contribute, nor is he a popular name just yet, but the opportunity for him to produce is there and you won't have to overpay to get him. Throw in the fact that the Titans have a shiny new toy at quarterback with Marcus Mariota and DGB is certainly worth the lottery ticket.
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