Nate Karns (SP, TB) - Waiver Wire Pickups

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OWNED IN: 20% of Fleaflicker leagues

ANALYSIS: Karns' numbers look league average at first glance - 3-2 with a 3.63 ERA - and his strikeout rate is acceptable at 8.13 K/9. The walks, however, can kill your WHIP - 3.92 BB/9 is simply dreadful. Still, he did lower them to 2.51/9 in May, so maybe there is hope?

Not really, as he just does not throw enough pitches for strikes. He is a 3 pitch pitcher, and both of his secondary offerings spend less than 40% of their time in the strike zone. The heat is only marginally better, missing the zone at a 49% clip. His fastball has also lost a touch of velocity from his previous cups of coffee - to 91.7 mph from 93.2. Overall, his stuff is not that exciting.

He has also seen some good fortune so far this early season. His BABIP is a paltry .227, supported mainly by a 16% liner rate. His .323 BABIP at AAA in 2014 suggests that Karns is not one of the pitchers that can maintain such a low line drive rate, meaning that his performance will take a significant hit. He has been somewhat unlucky in the HR/FB department (12.7%), but overall luck has been on his side.

So why not completely ignore him? Well, his secondary offerings do generate whiffs at an above average rate - a knucklecurve with a 10.4% SwStr% and a changeup with a 14.3% figure - and he plays for a team currently in the hunt. Whether pitching for Tampa is good or bad is debatable, but the swing and miss stuff has a place in fantasy given the right opponent. Look for opponents that refuse to walk, like the Royals, Sox, Twins, or Orioles. These teams are most likely to hack at pitches out of the zone, allowing Karns to generate Ks with minimal risk.