RADIO
In a surprising turn of events, no veteran third basemen made the Top Five Dynasty/Keeper list. Veterans like Evan Longoria, Chris Davis, Todd Frazier and Josh Donaldson are too old to crack my top five. Much respect to those guys, but a new generation of third basemen has arrived. Let's take a look.
The Fantasy Future of Third Base
5) Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
Most consider Josh Donaldson a top five Dynasty 3B and for a hot minute, I considered it, but I just don't get all the hype around him. He’s a career .268/.347/.458 hitter with declining numbers. After batting .241 in 2012, he peaked at .301 in 2013 and then regressed back down to .255. It appears that his 2013 batting average was a bit of an outlier (science). Donaldson also has a discouraging three-year decline in LD% coupled with a three year increase in GB%. I don't own a crystal ball, but I would guess that trend will continue.
Seager puts up virtually identical numbers to Donaldson in every category. He is available later in inaugural drafts and he is over 2 years younger. Seager’s batting average and HR totals have increased for three consecutive years with 20, 22 and 25 in 2014. He is a fabulous player to own for the next two or three seasons, and I think we all can agree that the Mariners are a more likeable team than the Jays anyway.
Steamer projects some regression with Seager, but I don't see why. At age 27 he has improved in every MLB season. Why would I expect anything but the norm?
4) Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Machado makes the list based on handsomeness alone. Sadly, he’s already had major procedures on both his knees. It feels like he’s been around for much longer and hasn't quite lived up to all the hype, but he is healthy now.
His ability to stay healthy has me concerned, but again, he is only 22. At this tender age, Machado already has the potential to finish in the top five 3B this year and every year for the next 10.
He will hit for a higher average than both Seager and Donaldson. He strikes out less and has the potential to smack over 20 HR. His 15% HR/FB in 2014 suggests his power is real. Did I mention he is only 22?
3) Anthony Rendon, 3B/2B, Washington Nationals
Rendon makes a better keeper at 2B, and I spoke about him glowingly here. Ultimately, he edges out Machado and Seager simply because of his power/speed mix. I love his 20/20 potential and he has always shown he can hit.
If I may make a bold prediction, Rendon is an MVP candidate in 2015.
2) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
I was surprised to see the high value Arenado got to start the season. I always considered him more comparable to fellow 24-year-old third baseman, Nick Castellanos, so I finally looked into it.
As far as Steamer projections go, Arenado is projected for more HR and a much higher BA. He also bats fifth in a hot Colorado lineup while Castellanos bats seventh in Detroit.
In addition, Arenado gets to play 81 games per year in Colorado, a hitter's dream.
Then I found Arenado had a .213 ISO in 2014, which was tops among qualified 3B. He also plays Gold Glove caliber defense. So yes, there’s a big difference. Pablo Sandoval is Castellanos’s ceiling. Meanwhile, Arenado could be the next Adrian Beltre.
1) Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Sometimes I just follow the herd. Especially when everyone says he draws comparisons to Miguel Cabrera. He absolutely mashed in camp and people all over the country (including me) can't wait for the Cubbies to call him up to the bigs. All signs point to Bryant being a sure thing. Draft and own everywhere.
