RADIO
Position scarcity and depth are topics of great debate every draft season. Where the talent pool is deep, you can afford to wait. Where it is scarce, an early pick is often in order. During the work on my series of draft value articles using RotoBaller's ADP Draft Sleepers Tool, I examined the depth of each position in great detail. The culmination of that work is this latest article, one in which I explore the deepest and shallowest positions in this year's draft.
Deepest: Starting Pitching and Relief Pitching
The sheer depth of arms in this year's draft is staggering. Let's take an extreme example to illustrate this point. Suppose you refused to touch a single pitcher through the first 15 rounds of the draft. Based on current ADP numbers, what kind of staff could you reasonably assemble from that point on?
Round 16: Andrew Cashner (ADP: 152.0)
Round 17: Mat Latos (ADP: 162.0)
Round 18: Jose Quintana (ADP: 177.3)
Round 19: Francisco Liriano (ADP: 189.2)
Round 20: Matt Shoemaker (ADP: 191.7)
Round 21: Addison Reed (ADP: 205.5)
Round 22: Matt Cain (ADP: 218.2)
Round 23: Taijuan Walker (ADP: 225.0)
Round 24: Luke Gregerson (ADP: 238.8)
Considering the constraints we imposed during this experiment, this isn't a bad staff at all. It has a good mix of veteran stability, strikeouts, and upside sleepers to pair with two mid-level closers. If your league allows DL spots, you could also easily add a player like Sean Doolittle (ADP: 204.2) or Jake McGee (ADP: 222.2) to this mix, giving your team more long term upside in relief. It won't win any points for flash or sex appeal, but that's a group of pitchers who will keep you competitive throughout the year. Meanwhile, the stacked offense you built with your first 15 picks in the draft can carry the day. Just to reiterate, this was all built without so much as glancing at a starting pitcher through the first two-thirds of the draft. In reality few teams are likely to take such an extreme route. It goes to show though that even at these extremes, waiting on pitching is a viable strategy.
Given the amazing amount of talent in this year's draft, there's simply no excuse for reaching for a pitcher anymore. It's worth noting that this is not an argument for pushing Clayton Kershaw out of the top 10. While the pool of number two through number five pitchers has expanded dramatically in recent years, aces are still a scarce commodity. There is a strong argument to be made that the value of a true number one starting pitcher is well worth a top 50 pick in the draft. Past these aces, however, I'm hard pressed to see the value of drafting a pitcher early.
Shallowest: Catcher
There’s no position in baseball with fewer fantasy-relevant options than catcher. In part due to the increased understanding of the importance of catcher defense and pitch framing, it is one of the very few positions where teams are willing to almost punt offense entirely in favor of defense. Defense, however, doesn't win fantasy championships.
Compounding this problem is the matter of playing time. No defensive position in baseball is more demanding on the human body than catching. It’s no surprise then that catchers receive more rest days than other position players. Due to their offensive shortcomings, most catchers also tend to bat in the bottom of the batting order. This further limits their yearly plate appearance totals. Together, these factors have huge implications for fantasy baseball, a game largely ruled by counting statistics. Only three catchers in all of baseball enjoyed more than 600 plate appearances last season: Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez, and Buster Posey. It is difficult to see anyone outside of the position's top five of Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco, Evan Gattis, and Carlos Santana making it past this threshold next year.
By the end of the draft, some fantasy owners will be faced with the choice of selecting Matt Wieters or Brian McCann to fill in at backstop. In terms of playing time, skillset, and stability, the difference between these two players and the top five at the position is easily the largest of any position in the game at this point in time.
In Sum
Understanding position depth and scarcity in this year's talent pool is key for performing well on draft day. After all, each choice in the draft is not just a decision between one player and the next. It is also a choice between a player and another at his position later in the draft. It does no good to stock yourself full on arms in the first 10 rounds, only to realize the shortstop and catching markets have dried up in the meantime. Keeping in mind the current state of any given position will help you build the best possible team throughout the draft. It is teams, not individual players, which win fantasy seasons after all. Hopefully this article will help you build one of those lucky winners we all aspire to each April. Good luck.
