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Last week, I completed my first ever slow draft. Instead of a typical 60 seconds to make your pick, slow draft gives up to 8 hours to make a pick. This style of drafting could possibly take a couple weeks rather than the standard couple of hours.
Needless to say, slow draft completely took over my life. I checked my phone incessantly for updates. It’s fun, but it’s also a huge life distraction. You become a fantasy baseball crackhead when you go to bed drafting around 11 pm and wake up at 7 am still drafting. It all started on a Sunday, and by Friday we finished. It has been a long strange trip, but I loved it.
For a little background on the league, it’s a 16 team dynasty league with six keepers and 24 roster spots. We allow draft pick trading and two N/A roster spots to stash MLB prospects. The league has been evolving for over 10 years. This season, along with a slow draft, we also implemented a $100 waiver budget.
The reason I mention all of this, is because the first pick of the draft (equivalent to #97 overall) was 19-year-old Yoan Moncada, Cuban prospect for the Boston Red Sox. With most projections showing he’s the next Robinson Cano, some think his talent is worth a top 100 pick in dynasty leagues. I don't disagree.
Regardless of your reasons, Moncada has substantial value, already. Whether you draft him with the intentions of trading him or to keep him for next year, his value (barring injury) will only continue to rise. Because of this, Moncada cracks the list.
5) Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
A 19 year old, 6’ 1" / 210 pound switch hitting infielder, Moncada is the same weight and 1” taller than Robinson Cano. Boston currently has him playing 2B for Single-A Salem. They say that's where he is most comfortable. There is no saying where he will end up, but at 19 years old, only one thing is certain: he will not take any at bats at the MLB level in 2015. This is clearly a long term investment.
However, because Moncada has already proven himself in the Cuban leagues, he is not a typical 19 year old prospect. With his MLB ready tools and experience, Moncada should see the majors in one year. And if your keepers are getting a little long in the tooth, grab him now and look smart later.
4) Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Like Moncada, Baez is just a boy. But what a difference a couple years make. Among 2B, he’s projected to hit the most HR and unfortunately, he will also have the most strikeouts. His alarmingly high 41% K rate, in 52 games in 2014 has me worried.
In addition, there will be a lot of media attention and fan pressure pressure on the Chicago Cubs’ popular young nucleus of Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant. Among these three, Baez will have the hardest time finding success at the the plate. Baez’s swing scares me. Check out this Swing Analysis by Carson Cistulli of Fangraphs to further illustrate.
At the plate, Baez looks violent. He is like a cross between Gary Sheffield and Alfonso Soriano. It’s no doubt he will have a disgusting amount of strikeouts and he will struggle to hit .240, but If he can smash over 20 HR at 2B, I am still interested.
It is fair to say, Javier Baez is too young to make a conclusion. He is probably two seasons away from either being the next top fantasy 2B or the next Jedd Gyorko, and I think it could go either way.
3) Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
It’s not breaking news that Cano had down power numbers across the board in 2014. It was the first time in five years that Cano hit fewer than 25 HR. His .139 ISO was lowest since his 2008 season.
Yes, he can still improve on his down 2014, but it is unlikely. He will never again be the 25/103/85 Cano of years past. He still holds the top 2B rank in redraft leagues, but for the long term, this 32 year old 2B with declining power will not remain in the top 5 for too much longer.
2) Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
With only one year of elite play, it is hard to consider drafting Rendon over Altuve, but his 20/20 potential and multi-position eligibility makes it a difficult choice. Rendon is one month younger than Altuve and plays in a better lineup. Rendon is currently week-to-week with a knee injury, which is affecting his current draft stock. He also has a history of fragility, so I hope this knee injury doesn't result in fewer stolen bases.
1) Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
Over a three year span, Jose Altuve has a .306 BA, which is second highest amongst 2B next to Robinson Cano.
In 2015, Altuve led all 2B in K% and was second in OBP with .377. For the first time in his career, he also led all 2B with a .363 wOBA. Most projections are estimating for regression in almost all categories, including stolen bases, but I would be willing to take that risk.
I am so high on Altuve, I consider him the favorite to win the batting title in 2015. If I may make an even bolder prediction, I believe Jose Altuve will bat over .370, just like my man Nomar Garciaparra batted .372 back in 2000. Write that down.
