RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 180.3
RANKING STATUS: Undervalued
ANALYSIS: The Astros have quietly developed a very solid, young rotation and it all starts with their number one: Collin McHugh. McHugh last season was dominant, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 154.2 innings. McHugh also limited the walks (2.39 BB/9) and home runs (.76 HR/9) which allowed him to go after hitters and let his defense play behind him.
When looking at some of McHugh’s underlying numbers, it is clear that this is something he can repeat. His Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA is an ERA estimator that incorporates batted ball data) was terrific at 3.14 SIERA. His fastball velocity isn’t great, sitting at an average speed of 91.6 mph, but his curveball is a full 18.7 mph slower which is more than enough speed to throw off opposing batters. One thing to be wary of is McHugh's .259 BABIP, which will certainly rise considering his robust 25% career line drive rate. You can expect McHugh's ERA to increase a little bit, but following a major breakout season, he looks poised to repeat most of his 2014 success as the ace of the Astros rotation. He could take another big step forward in 2015.
