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Allen Craig: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Bust
What are we to make of Allen Craig? The former MVP candidate posted career lows last season, slashing .215/.279/.315 while hitting eight home runs through 505 plate appearances with the Cardinals and Red Sox. Despite the free fall, Craig has steadfastly denied his decline in production is injury related. Granted, it wouldn't be the first time for a player to lie about a nagging injury, but it would be dishonest to assume that's the case without evidence.
What we are left with is the puzzling case of a hitter who's seemed to fall apart overnight without having changed much about his approach. Take a look at Craig's plate discipline numbers for yourself:
| BB% | K% | Swing Rate | Contact Rate | Swinging Strike Rate | |
| 2013 | 7.1% | 17.8% | 46.1% | 82.2% | 8.0% |
| 2014 | 6.9% | 22.4% | 46.1% | 81.7% | 8.3% |
| Career | 7.1% | 19.1% | 45.6% | 82.2% | 8.0% |
Craig hasn't become a free swinger overnight. He's walking, swinging, making contact, and whiffing at roughly the same rates he did when he was a MVP candidate. What Craig has been able to do with the ball when he does make contact on the other hand...well that's a different story:
| GB% | FB% | LD% | HR/FB | AVG | SLG | BABIP | |
| 2013 | 45.0% | 28.1% | 26.9% | 11.2% | .315 | .457 | .368 |
| 2014 | 54.0% | 24.9% | 21.1% | 9.2% | .215 | .315 | .266 |
| Career | 46.4% | 30.5% | 23.1% | 13.6% | .282 | .445 | .325 |
Those are the kind of trends that make an owner in a keeper league reach for a drink. Over the course of a season, Craig has stopped hitting the ball with any sort of authority. The line drives he used to spray to all fields have become a gaggle of weakly hit ground balls rolling to the shortstop's feet. Fangraph's Jeff Sullivan looked into this issue at length in July, exploring how Craig may have lost the bat speed that once allowed him to punish pitches on the inner half.
That simply won't work for a hitter like Craig. He has only hit over 20 home runs once in his career. Outside of 2012, his next two highest finishes were 11 in 2011 and 13 home runs in 2013. Speed has never been a factor in his game either.
What you have left is essentially the Chris Johnson model of fantasy production. Craig is a valuable commodity when he can hit for a high average with plenty of RBI and Runs. When the average goes though, bringing down the counting stats with it...frankly it becomes difficult to justify rostering Craig at all.
There may be something to be said for the benefit of Craig enjoying a full offseason this year. Baseball players are creatures of routine like few others, so I could appreciate the argument that Craig might get some boost from not having to deal with the foot injury which sidelined him late last season. I just don't think the effect will be terribly significant.
Given the glut of 1B/OF types the Red Sox employ, playing time will also be a concern for Craig. Of course, the Sox are exploring the trade market, with the Brewers sounding like front runners at the time of this writing. Until a trade is completed, one can't project Craig for much in the way of playing time. After all, Ben Cherington could decide it's in the Red Sox's interest to hold onto Craig for now and deal him at the deadline when he's had the opportunity to build up his value a bit.
In Summary
Others might look at Craig's down year and predict he's a bargain pick due for a rebound. Perhaps Craig's physical skills haven't declined to the point of fantasy irrelevance. I see enough red flags that I'll be letting someone else draft him in 2015, however. For a few years, Craig was one of the most solid line drive hitters in the game. I'm sad to say it, but I'm afraid that player is gone.
