Starting Pitchers Returning from the DL to Target on the Waiver Wire

July 8, 2014

Harris Yudin analyzes 3 MLB starting pitcher sleepers returning from the disabled list in week 15 who you should consider picking up from the waiver wire for your fantasy baseball team

Starting Pitchers Returning from the DL in Week 15

When I took a look at the pitchers available in most leagues, I noticed three sleeper pitchers that are set to return from the disabled list this week. There are different levels of the leagues in which they should be owned, but all three sleepers are worth at least some consideration to pickup off the waiver wire.

Bud Norris, Baltimore Orioles

Owned in 7% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 9% of FleaFlicker Leagues

Orioles starter Bud Norris was enjoying the best season of his career before being placed on the disabled list on June 27 with a groin injury. The move was retroactive to June 22, so Norris became eligible to return on July 7. He will be making his next start Tuesday against the Nationals, giving him a two-start week heading into the All-Star break.

Prior to the injury, Norris owned a 3.62 ERA and a 7-5 record, with 60 strikeouts in 87 innings pitched. Those numbers might not jump out as being an exciting fantasy option, but Norris is a reliable starter who is sure to pick up wins behind an offense like Baltimore's. A big reason behind Norris' success so far in 2014 is his heavier reliance on his fastball, which he is throwing 61.5% of the time, significantly higher than his career average of 55.4%. He is throwing less breaking balls, and as a result has allowed a career-low 37.7% fly ball percentage.

The Nationals have struggled lately against righties such as Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Marco Estrada, so Norris is a legitimate option on Tuesday. Then, he is scheduled to face a Yankees team on Sunday that is uncharacteristically 19th in the majors in runs scored. He only allowed two earned runs total in his last three starts, so don't expect him to miss a beat when he returns. Norris is definitely worth an add in AL-Only leagues going forward, and in deep mixed leagues as a streamer for his two-start week.

Dillon Gee, New York Mets

Owned in 27% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 42% of FleaFlicker Leagues

Like Norris, the Mets' Dillon Gee was in the midst of his best season before being sidelined with a strained right lat on May 11.  After almost two months, Gee is set to make his return on Wednesday against the surging Braves. Despite the Braves' recent success, they have a righty-heavy lineup, and Gee had only allowed a .193 batting average to righties before his injury. Similar to Norris, Gee has relied more heavily on his fastball, throwing it 62.8% of the time, up from 53.8% last year. He also has used his curveball more than in the past, while his slider and changeup have become less of a factor in his repertoire.

While Gee is not a strikeout pitcher, with only 33 in 52.2 innings to date, the Braves tend to strike out a lot, so he may be able to help owners in that category. Given how he pitched before his injury, Gee should be owned in all NL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Even if the matchup against the Braves concerns you, he is worthy of an add going forward. Additionally, the Mets may use Gee as a trade chip, perhaps sending him to a contender that will give him a chance to accumulate more wins.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Rays

Owned in 4% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 9% of FleaFlicker Leagues

Jeremy Hellickson is much less of a sure thing to return to top form than Norris or Gee. He was beginning to emerge as an elite pitcher for the Rays in 2011 and 2012, but regressed in a major way in 2013, posting a horrid 5.17 ERA over 174 innings pitched. He has yet to pitch this season due to elbow trouble. According to Baseball Prospectus' Doug Thorburn, Hellickson's struggles last year were due, in large part, to his increased utilization of the slide-step in his delivery. The slide-step is a maneuver used by pitchers in the stretch to try to prevent runners on base from stealing, but it is proven that using it compromises a pitcher's control and velocity. With runners on base, instead of giving his infield chances for double plays by inducing ground balls as he did 41.8% of the time in 2012, he was missing his spots and giving opposing hitters better opportunities to drive the ball. Hellickson surrendered a batting average well over .300 with runners on base in 2013 after opposing hitters managed a sub-.225 batting average in such situations in 2011-2012.

If he can work to fix his mechanics from the stretch and diminish the use of the slide-step, Hellickson has the stuff to bounce back and once again become a dominant pitcher. His fastball is solid, hovering around 91 mph, but he has a plus changeup and a devastating curveball. He has great command, and he mixes up his pitches very well. I have faith in the abilities of Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey to get the talented young pitcher back on track. Helix is only 27, and would be an immediate add in most leagues if he is able to revert back to his old self. He has a tough matchup against Kansas City on Tuesday, and I would advise giving him a start or two before adding him in any league, but he is definitely someone worth monitoring as he returns from his injury. You would have to be very desperate for anyone to give you some innings in an extremely deep AL-Only league in order to pick him up right away.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Kelly, St Louis Cardinals

Owned in 4% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 11% of FleaFlicker Leagues

Joe Kelly is another starting pitcher coming off the DL this week. He'll start Friday vs. the Brewers in Milwaukee, so we highly advise you to watch that start from afar and not add Kelly until you see how he rebounds. His start after that likely comes vs. the Rays who haven't looked very potent all year.  If Kelly shuts down the Brewers offense on their home turf, he'll be worth in add in most mixed leagues.  If he gets lit up and shows some rust, consider him more of a deep league waiver wire pickup.