D/ST Strength of Schedule: Best Fantasy Football Defense Streamers and Matchups (Weeks 16-17)

December 17, 2024

Scott's 2024 DST fantasy football strength of schedules for Weeks 16-17, and the best fantasy football DST matchups for the rest of season. Target these D/STs.

It's officially fantasy football crunch time as we wrap up the fantasy regular season over the next two weeks. Those fortunate enough to make the playoffs must continue to grind out decisions, especially when it comes to team defenses. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special Teams (DST) position for Weeks 13-17.

A couple weeks ago I wrote an initial version of this article -- fantasy Defense/Special Teams (DST) article for Weeks 11-17, looking at fantasy schedule strength with an eye toward the rest of the season and fantasy playoffs. This article will follow the same format with updated opponent strength data, for Weeks 13-17.

Based on my adjusted fantasy points allowed process, I will look at the rest of the season and fantasy playoff schedules for the DST position, pointing out the most favorable schedules in those time frames, and providing a DST streaming strategy through the end of the season. As the saying goes, "The best defense is a good fantasy DST" (or maybe that's just me?), so let's get into it.

DST Pressure Rate

While this metric is not factored into my adjusted fantasy points allowed process, pressure rate is a useful statistic to factor into the strategy of choosing a DST. A defense’s rate is calculated using the following equation:

(QB Hurries + QB Knockdowns + QB Sacks) divided by QB Dropbacks

Other than sacks, the frequency with which a defense pressures the opposing QB does not directly equate to fantasy points. But pressure on the QB that does not end in a sack can increase the chances of the QB making a poor throw, fumbling, or simply not moving the ball toward a scoring opportunity for the offense.

The following chart shows each DST and their season-long pressure rate. I also calculated the average pressure rate allowed by each team’s remaining opponents. Looking at the data from this angle is a useful piece of the strategy beyond just adjusted fantasy points allowed.

A higher pressure rate combined with a higher average pressure rate allowed by a DST’s opponents lends to good opportunities for sacks and turnovers.

The following is another useful data set showing multiple team defense-level statistics that are relevant to how fantasy DSTs score points. The table shows the following for each defense:

• DST fantasy points per game
• Interception rate (interceptions per QB dropback)
• Pressure rate
• Sack rate (sacks per QB dropback)
• Turnover rate (percentage of drives ending in a turnover)

All data in this team defense portion of the article is from Pro Football Reference.

DST Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 13-17) with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy DST position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

A higher number ranks with a green color represent more favorable matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for DSTs is included at the end of the article.

This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual numbered rank (1-32) of each opponent.

Also included are each team’s ROS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17) SOS score (average of opponent ranks in those time frames).

As a teaser, the following teams have the top 10 most favorable DST schedules for Weeks 13-17. Included in parentheses is the current rostership percentage for each team (calculated as the average rostership across the ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo Fantasy platforms).

Also included are the number of “Plus Matchups” for each team (opponents ranked 20^th or worse versus DSTs):

1. Buccaneers (55.1%)
   • Plus Matchups: Four
2. Jaguars (5.5%)
   • Plus Matchups: Four
3. Colts (20.6%)
   • Plus Matchups: Three (and a bye)
4. Bengals (16.5%)
   • Plus Matchups: Three
5. Commanders (63.4%)
   • Plus Matchups: Two (and a bye)
6. Chiefs (88.3%)
   • Plus Matchups: Two
7. Falcons (6.7%)
   • Plus Matchups: Three
8. Cardinals (17%)
   • Plus Matchups: Four
9. Broncos (85.7%)
   • Plus Matchups: One (and a bye)
10. Ravens (62%)
    • Plus Matchups: One (and a bye)

DST Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

This late in the season, there are only two relevant time frames. I define each as follows:

• Rest of Season (ROS): Weeks 13-17
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for DSTs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

DST Strength of Schedule: Rest of Season

The following chart shows DST’s schedule for the rest of the season (Weeks 13-17). The chart is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

The current average rostership percentage (across ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo Fantasy platforms) is also included for each team. Many managers are streaming the position by this time, and the reality of what teams are and might be available is important context.

The Buccaneers have the highest rest-of-season SOS Score, which translates to the most favorable schedule for DSTs in Weeks 13-17. Their bye is behind them, and they get two matchups with the 24^th-ranked Panthers, including Week 13 and during championship week.

The issue with Tampa Bay is that their favorable schedule is well known, and their rostership has crept above the 50% threshold (55.1% averaged across the three platforms). If they are available, Tampa Bay is a solid streaming option for the next two weeks against the Panthers and Raiders (the most favorable DST matchup)

Next up are the Jaguars, with a “just okay” matchup in Week 13 versus the 18^th-ranked Texans. But after that, they face the Titans (28^th), Jets (23^rd), Raiders (32^nd), and the Titans again during championship week. Jacksonville is widely available with a rostership of only 5.5%, but there is a reason for that.

Even with the favorable schedule, the Jaguars DST, with their second-lowest pressure rate of 17.3% and sixth-lowest 3.8 fantasy points per game, is a highly risky streaming option at this crucial stage of the season.

The third-most favorable DST schedule belongs to the Colts, a DST that is also readily available with a rostership of only 20.6%. The Colts have a good matchup in Week 13 versus the Patriots (26^th), but that is followed by a bye in Week 14 and a trip to Denver in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

The Broncos are a slightly negative matchup (14^th) and have the sixth-lowest pressure rate allowed (18.2%).

The Bengals have the fourth most favorable ROS schedule, but you will want to leave them alone in Week 13 versus the ninth-ranked Steelers. After that, the Bengals have three consecutive plus matchups against the Cowboys (31^st), Titans (28^th), and Browns (29^th and the second-highest pressure rate allowed).

However, the Bengals are only advisable because of the favorable schedule. They rank 21^st in pressure rate and 26^th in fantasy points per game.

The Commanders check in with the fifth most favorable ROS schedule, starting immediately in Week 13 versus the 28^th-ranked Titans. They do have a Week 14 bye and face the Eagles and Falcons in Weeks 16 and 17.

I would only consider them for Week 13 and Week 15 versus the Saints (25^th), but their juicy matchup with Tennessee in Week 13 is no secret, as their rostership climbed to 63.4% after this week’s waivers.

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable DST schedules in Weeks 13-17 are listed below:

• Sixth: Chiefs; 88.3% rostership; 27% pressure rate (third highest)
  • Week 13: Raiders (32^nd)
  • Week 14: Chargers (20^th)
  • Week 15: Browns (29^th)
  • Week 16: Texans (18^th)
  • Week 17: Steelers (ninth)
• Seventh: Falcons; 6.7%% rostership; 17.6% pressure rate (30^th)
  • Week 13: Chargers (20^th)
  • Week 14: Vikings (22^nd)
  • Week 15: Raiders (32^nd)
  • Week 16: Giants (30^th)
  • Week 17: Commanders (third)
• Eighth: Cardinals; 17% rostership; 19.1% pressure rate (25^th)
  • Week 13: Vikings (22^nd)
  • Week 14: Seahawks (21^st)
  • Week 15: Patriots (26^th)
  • Week 16: Panthers (24^th)
  • Week 17: Rams (eighth)
• Ninth: Broncos; 85.7% rostership; 25.8% pressure rate (ninth)
  • Week 13: Browns (29^th)
  • Week 14: BYE
  • Week 15: Colts (16^th)
  • Week 16: Chargers (20^th)
  • Week 17: Bengals (12^th)
• 10th: Ravens; 62% rostership; 21.5% pressure rate (19^th)
  • Week 13: Eagles (19^th)
  • Week 14: BYE
  • Week 15: Giants (30^th)
  • Week 16: Steelers (ninth)
  • Week 17: Texans (18^th)

DST Strength of Schedule: Fantasy Playoffs

The following chart shows each DST’s schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

DST Streaming Road Map (Weeks 13-17)

Rather than go through the same process of looking at the top 10 most favorable playoff schedules, it is more useful to look ahead, based on the data presented in this article, and develop what I am calling a “DST Streaming Road Map” for the rest of the season.

Five of the DSTs in the top 10 fantasy playoff schedule pool have a rostership above 50% (Buccaneers, Commanders, Chiefs, Broncos, and Ravens). The rest qualify as streamers so we can put together a road map of DSTs to aim for each week, from now through the fantasy playoffs.

For each week, I will provide my top streaming option (Option 1), and a secondary option (Option 2):

Week 13:

• Option 1: Cowboys (50.8% rostership; third-most favorable matchup versus the Giants). Yes, I am slightly breaking the rules here with a rostership above 50%, but with a healthy Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are my top streaming choice in Week 13.
• Option 2: Seahawks (18.3% rostership; 10^th-most favorable matchup versus the Jets). I am surprised Seattle’s defense has such a lower rostership after what they did to the Cardinals in Week 12.

Week 14:

• Option 1: Dolphins (47.8% rostership; 10^th-most favorable matchup versus the Jets)
• Option 2: Saints (22.5% rostership; third-most favorable matchup versus the Giants)

Week 15:

• Option 1: Cardinals (17% rostership; seventh-most favorable matchup versus the Patriots)
• Option 2: Bengals (16.5% rostership; fifth-most favorable matchup versus the Titans)

Week 16:

• Option 1: Bills (53.5% rostership; seventh-most favorable matchup versus the Patriots). Yes, the Bills are above a 50% rostership right now, but in Week 16 they will be coming off of a game at Detroit, the toughest DST matchup. The Bills are a good stash if you have space as their schedule Weeks 13-15 is brutal (SF, LAR, and DET).
• Option 2: Packers (40.1% rostership; eighth-most favorable matchup versus the Saints, at a likely frigid Lambeau Field)

Week 17:

• Option 1: Dolphins (47.8% rostership; fourth-most favorable matchup versus the Browns). Miami’s rostership will likely be lower by Week 17 as they will be coming off games versus the Texans and 49ers in Weeks 15 and 16.
• Option 2: Eagles (66.7%% rostership; second-most favorable matchup versus the Cowboys). This is another scenario where the Eagles will likely be below 50% by Week 17, with games against the Steelers and Commanders in Weeks 15 and 16.

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of the schedule each week.

I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X or Bluesky Social (@MunderDifflinFF on both).

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