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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 12 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 12 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows the Arizona to Green Bay offenses.
The visual below shows Houston to New England.
Finally, the New York Giants through the Washington Commanders can be seen below.
Week 12 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 12 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Josh Downs vs. Amik Robertson
Since Week 8, Josh Downs ranks 29th in expected fantasy points per game (13.7) while producing 17 PPR/G. That's three points higher than the expected fantasy points per game for Michael Pittman Jr. at 10.7 (No. 55), though he averaged under five PPR/G (4.9) in Weeks 8-11.
Downs has been earning targets on first reads 30.5% of the time, nearly eight percentage points higher than Pittman's 22.7% first-read target share in Weeks 8-11. The usage for Downs points toward being the top priority in the Colts' passing game as a WR3 with upside.
The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage at 45.4% and the highest percentage of Cover 1 at 40%. Downs ranks third on the team in target per route run rate at 24%, with a solid 2.53 yards per route against man coverage.
The visual below shows the receiving leaders against man coverage, including targets per route run and yards per route run.
Among receivers and tight ends with 10 routes against man coverage, Downs trails Adonai Mitchell in target rate (55%) and yards per route run (3.52). Mo Alie-Cox has a slight edge in target rate (25%), though he trails Downs in yards per route run (1.79) versus man coverage.
Specifically, Mitchell averages a 59% target rate and 4.00 yards per route compared to Downs garnering a 21% target rate and 2.82 yards per route run against Cover 1. Mitchell might be a deep sleeper, though his 33.7% route rate compared to Downs at 73.7% versus Cover 1 indicates the usage likely won't be there for the rookie.
The Lions have been bleeding the second-most fantasy points to the slot receiver at 19.4 behind the Saints (19.9). That should bode well for Downs since he plays the most routes in the slot for the Colts. Amik Robertson has been part of the problem, allowing the second-most yards per route and the seventh-highest fantasy points per route run. Having a receiver paired with Anthony Richardson can be volatile, but Downs should smash in Week 12 against the Lions.
Quentin Johnston vs. Brandon Stephens
Speaking of juicy matchups, the Ravens have been one of them, allowing the most fantasy points to receivers out wide at 33.7 PPR/G, over four points more than the Buccaneers at 29.3 (No. 2). Unfortunately, the usage for Quentin Johnston doesn't inspire confidence, with 9.8 expected fantasy points per game compared to 15.1 PPR/G in Weeks 8-11.
That's partly due to Johnston's 23.8 yards per reception, 12.7 yards per target, and 2.47 yards per route run in Weeks 8-11. For context, the Chargers have been an efficient offense, with Ladd McConkey averaging 11.2 expected fantasy points per game and 16.7 PPR/G in Weeks 8-11.
Though McConkey's usage may look more sustainable, Johnston isn't far behind in several metrics, including first-read target shares. Johnston averaged a 23.6% first-read target share compared to McConkey at 25.3% since Week 8.
The Ravens mix up their coverage usage, using man at the 14th-highest rate and zone at the 20th-highest rate. Most notably, they use Cover 6 12.3% of the time (No. 4) while mixing in several other coverages.
Since Week 8, Johnston has led the team with a 33% target per route rate, yet an inefficient 0.65 yards per route run against man coverage. Meanwhile, McConkey has been the Chargers' man coverage beater, evidenced by his 28% target rate and 4.00 yards per route run. That suggests Justin Herbert looks toward Johnston in man coverage on a per-route basis, but the production and efficiency have been lacking.
The visual below shows the separation data by coverage via the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Though the volume might look good, the added concern involves Johnston's ability to separate against man coverage. He ranks 200th in Average Separation Score at -0.050 versus man coverage among wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs with 10 routes run. Sometimes good teams like the Chargers with several talented players can allow for wide-open situations, which Johnston seemingly scores upon quite often.
Over the past five games, the top receivers against the Ravens averaged 11.4 targets, eight receptions, 128 receiving yards, and 27.6 PPR/G. If we toss out the Ja'Marr Chase smash spot of 55.4 PPR, receivers facing the Ravens averaged 10 targets, 7.25 receptions, 93.8 receiving yards, and 20.7 PPR/G. Fantasy managers might not have a choice in starting Johnston with several teams on bye weeks, but the WR/CB matchup data suggests he should produce above the expectation in Week 12.
Darius Slayton vs. Josh Hayes
Unfortunately, the usage for Darius Slayton doesn't inspire us, with 9.5 expected fantasy points (No. 70) and a 17% targets per route run rate (No. 132) among 235 qualified receivers and tight ends with 10 routes in Weeks 8-11. However, he garnered a respectable 31.1 percent air yards share (No. 33) with an efficient 2.62 yards per route run (No. 35) in Weeks 8-11.
The Buccaneers' pass defense has been shredded, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to receivers out wide. They also allow the sixth-most air yards per game (271.2), fifth-highest catchable air yards percentage (61.5%), and ninth-highest 20+ yard completion percentage (40%). In short, opposing offenses attack their pass defense downfield, with a high rate of explosive plays.
Josh Hayes has been contributing to the problems, with the second-most fantasy points per route and 12th-most yards per route run allowed. The Buccaneers use zone coverage at the highest rate with the second-highest percentage of Cover 3.
Unfortunately, Slayton hasn't performed well against zone coverage, evidenced by a 17% target rate and 1.51 yards per route run. The same trend occurs for Slayton versus Cover 3, with a 15% target rate and 1.39 yards per route run.
Meanwhile, Malik Nabers smashes Cover 3, with a 37% target rate and 3.00 yards per route, so the Week 12 matchup might be more of a boom game for Nabers than Slayton. It's tricky to project how Tommy Devito might perform after the small sample in 2023, but we'll highlight Slayton being the third-most efficient pass catcher with 8.03 adjusted yards per attempt last season.
The matchup for Slayton is juicy, though the usage suggests he's a WR4. With six teams on bye, Slayton's upgrade WR/CB matchup in Week 12 makes him a boom-or-bust receiver in deeper formats.
Week 12 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Xavier Legette vs. Trent McDuffie
In neutral game scripts, the Panthers ranked 24th in pass rate at 51%, with the seventh-highest rate since Week 6. That suggests the Panthers prefer to lean on Chuba Hubbard and the run game, especially with Bryce Young.
Young took over as the starter in Week 8, and Xavier Legette averaged 10.2 expected fantasy points per game, with Jalen Coker at 11.6. Besides the expected fantasy points, Coker has a slight edge in first-read target share (25%) compared to Legette at 22.1 percent since Week 8.
The Chiefs allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers out wide, where Legette plays around 60-65% of the time. Trent McDuffie has been a legitimate cornerback shutting down opposing receivers. That's evident in McDuffie allowing the 11th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 12th-fewest yards per route run.
The Chiefs use man coverage at the seventh-highest rate, with the third-highest percentage of two-high safety looks. Legette and Coker have the same target rate at 23%, with Coker being slightly more efficient in yards per route run (2.35 vs. 1.88) against man coverage.
The visual below shows the advanced receiving data against two high safety coverages.
Legette garners a 20% target rate and 0.92 yards per route run against two high safety coverages. Meanwhile, Coker has been more efficient with 1.73 yards per route, with a 13% target per route rate.
Theoretically, the Panthers will need to win in the passing game for Legette to be productive because the Chiefs have been the second-best run defense in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Over the past five games, the top receivers facing the Chiefs averaged six targets, 4.6 receptions, 55.6 receiving yards, and 14.2 PPR/G.
Jakobi Meyers vs. Pat Surtain II
Since Week 8, Jakobi Meyers has outperformed his expected fantasy points per game (11.9) by nearly three points (14.8 PPR/G). That's in the WR3 or WR4 range, though he possesses more of a PPR floor than others. Meyers has nearly matched Brock Bowers in first read target share, with Meyers at 31.4% and Bowers at 30% in Weeks 8-11.
The Broncos play the sixth-most man coverage, and the seventh-most Cover 1. Meyers garners a 27% target per route run rate, with Bowers at 28% against man coverage. Bowers averaged 2.76 yards per route, over one yard more per route run than Meyers at 1.57.
The visual below shows the top 15 pass catchers sorted by first-read target share against man coverage.
It's positive to see Meyers earning a high target rate against man coverage, with a similar trend versus Cover 1, with a 27% target rate. With Meyers' volume, it's hard to fade him, though it's theoretically a downgraded matchup in Week 12 facing Pat Surtain II.
Surtain allows the fewest fantasy points per route and yards per route. Meanwhile, the Broncos allow the 13th-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and the 12th-fewest to the slot.
However, we could envision a scenario where Meyers replicates his Week 5 production of nine targets, six receptions, and 72 receiving yards. That's especially true considering the potential passing volume via a negative game script and the Raiders ranking sixth in neutral script pass rate at 58% since Week 6.
Be cautious with Meyers against Surtain in Week 12, though it's slim pickings with six teams on bye. Meyers scoring around 12 PPR might be the most probable based on volume.
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