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There are technical, precise ways to measure a fantasy “bust,” but we know one when we see one. We lived through it, after all. These players slowly but surely sabotaged our fantasy teams despite high expectations.
For those who want firm parameters, we have, with one exception, spotlighted players drafted in the top 150 who finished 100+ spots below their ADP on the FanGraphs Player Rater.
We are excluding players who were disappointing based on injury or missed time (e.g., Triston Casas, Nolan Jones, Bobby Miller), and most of those who were sent down to the minors due to early struggles (e.g., Jordan Walker).
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 3.5
Final rank: 59
No, the bottom didn’t fall out completely for J Rod, as a late surge got his average up to .273 with 20 homers and 24 steals in 143 games. This pick is about expectations and disappointment. Despite two excellent seasons before the age of 23, Rodriguez produced just 144 runs plus RBI and finished as the 59th-most valuable player, 40th hitter, and 16th outfielder. In dollar terms, he was drafted to be a $40 player and returned just $18.4 in value.
That’s a painful delta, but not as painful as contemplating what you likely passed up to take him: Bobby Witt Jr. Aaron Judge. Shohei Ohtani. They finished top three and provided two to three times Rodriguez's value.
The frustrating part is we didn’t miss any glaring red flags. Rodriguez has always had middling plate discipline but he hits the ball so hard that striking out 25% of the time shouldn’t be crippling. However, his barrel rate has declined gently every year and he didn’t hit the ball as hard in the air, hence his HR/FB% plummeted from 20% to 14% -- a solid but unspectacular rate.
It’s worth noting that J Rod dealt with quad and ankle injuries in July and August that interrupted patented hot streaks. He did hit .312 with 13 homers in his last 58 games.
So what’s the lesson, if any? Perhaps there’s more variance than we knew in this profile. Rodriguez swings and misses too much. He’s prone to cold streaks. His home park is the worst in MLB for right-handed power. The lineup around him is weak.
On the other hand, injuries likely played a role and his larger career sample is still excellent. We are likely buyers at his 2025 price if, for example, he drops to the late first or early second round -- which may just be where he should’ve been drafted all along.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 40
Final rank: 178
I was concerned about Arozarena before the season but didn’t expect this: over a slog of 648 plate appearances, he hit .219 with just 137 runs plus RBI despite batting in the top four most of the season. As with Rodriguez, there was adequate power (20 HRs) and speed (20 SBs), but that batting average was a complete drain.
My fears around him: his 79% zone contact in 2023 was eighth-worst in MLB and his overall contact was 20th percentile. He overcame it that season with career-high barrel and walk rates. This year, Arozarena had the fifth-worst zone contact among qualified batters, his barrel rate dropped to just 8.5%, and he hit fewer line drives. Statcast agreed there was nothing fluky to the .219 average (.223 xBA).
You could cite Arozarena’s .790 second-half OPS and say it wasn’t all bad, but that’s the point; in 2023, it was a great first half and execrable finish. It’s an extremely volatile profile, one that isn’t likely to age well as he moves into his 30s next season.
It was also the second straight year he was caught stealing on roughly one-third of his attempts. Oh, and he has now joined Rodriguez in righty-killing Seattle.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 38
Final rank: 152
Gausman was a top-30 pick as the third or fourth pitcher selected in many early drafts. Then news emerged he was dealing with a preseason shoulder injury and his ADP dropped, but only slightly as he wasn’t expected to miss more than a couple of starts. Instead, he hurried back and made 31 starts for the second year in a row. That’s where the similarity to his excellent 2023 ends.
Although he downplayed the shoulder, Gausman’s fastball velocity sat below 94 for the first time since 2019 and his elite splitter lost vertical drop. The strikeouts nosedived from 237 to 162, dropping his K-BB ratio from elite territory to exactly average (14%). His 3.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP weren’t terrible, but they didn’t help us, either (and xFIP and SIERA say he pitched more like a 4.2 arm).
Gausman made adjustments and had some strong stretches, but he was nowhere near dominant enough to justify his draft cost. He managed more wins -- 14 being the most since his 2021 breakout with the Giants -- which tells you how variable and weird THAT category can be.
The lesson here is to beware of arm or shoulder injuries with pitchers; whatever discount you get likely isn’t enough.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 76
Final rank: 177
We probably should have approached Goldy with more caution entering his age-36 season after he took a step back last year. “But he defeated Father Time when we doubted him before!” Indeed, but he was “only” 33 then.
Goldy was the seventh first baseman drafted and finished 17th at the position, slashing .245 with 22 home runs and just 135 runs plus RBI in 154 games. (He did swipe 11 bags despite slowing down elsewhere.)
Overall run-producing measures pegged him as roughly league average (98 OPS+, 100 wRC+). Even his always-excellent fielding dipped, and it was the first full season he was not at least a 3-WAR player (1.1 fWAR).
Look, it wasn’t all bad: Goldy stayed healthy and his hard-hit rate and exit velocities remained high. But he struggled against fastballs and finished with by far his worst career strikeout (25.7%) and walk rates (7.2%). It’s difficult to envision a bounce back at age 37.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees
ADP: 77
Final rank: 189
The sixth second baseman drafted, Torres finished 18th at the position and the No. 120 hitter, earning $8.1, behind such fantasy luminaries as Maikel Garcia and Jose Caballero.
Torres rose steadily through the draft season, going from the 90s in early drafts to the 70s by March. The thesis made sense: Torres was projected to lead off in front of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
He had been one of the most consistent power and batting average sources at a shaky position, averaging 24.5 HRs, 81.5 runs, 72 RBI, 11.5 steals, and a .266 average over 2022-23. Steamer projected him for 26/15/.270.
Instead, Torres lost his leadoff spot and gave us just 15 HRs, 143 runs plus RBI, four SBs, and a .257 BA. Turns out the title of best-hitting second baseman belonged to Ketel Marte, who was taken two to three rounds later.
So, what happened? Torres had the same OBP as the prior two seasons but lost almost 75 points of slugging. His barrel rate declined 3% to an uninspiring 6% and the hard-hit rate dropped to 35%.
My theory: Torres was hit on the thumb by a fastball on March 29 -- the second game of the season -- and didn’t miss any time to recover. He didn’t hit his first home run until May 2. Then, he was hit on the other hand by a pitch in late June.
Perhaps the two HBP sapped his power or changed his swing mechanics. Perhaps protecting the hand injuries discouraged him from running. Fantasy managers will no doubt be wary given the 2024 results, but as with J Rod, when Torres drops in drafts, we may be back in depending on his health and landing spot. He’s a free agent in 2025.
Alexis Diaz, RP, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 107
Final Rank: 388
We considered Craig Kimbrel for the biggest closer bust, but with him, you could at least bank the good stats and move on when he lost the role. Diaz’s failure was far more insidious and frustrating. He was kind of good, then bad, then kind of good again, but earned saves throughout the season so you didn’t know if or when to bench him.
The final line of 28 saves, 3.99 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP doesn’t look quite as bad as it felt. Diaz struck out less than a batter per inning (8.8 K/9) after posting rates over 11 K/9 in his first two seasons. Relatedly, he lost a little zip on his fastball for the third straight season, going from 96 mph in 2022 to 94 mph now, which is below average for a reliever.
That’s the frustrating part for those of us who drafted Diaz, as the warning signs were there. He’d lost velocity and his stuff had degraded in 2023. His control was among the worst relievers had last year and it remained so in 2024. Kimbrel was the only closer with a higher walk rate than Diaz’s 12.8%.
Chris Bassitt, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 125
Final Rank: 409
Ah, Bassitt, a bastion of safety and demigod of volume, decent ratios, and double-digit wins, right? Well, he posted every fifth day and just barely got the wins (10), but that’s the end of even ambivalent news.
After all, 171 innings aren’t so valuable when you’re killing our ratios with a 4.16 ERA (4.32 SIERA) and 1.46 WHIP. Bassitt’s walk rate wasn’t much worse in 2024, but his kitchen sink approach baffled no one and 9.47 hits/9 was his most allowed since 2016.
The velocity was fine (for him), but he left too many meatballs in the middle of the plate; a 98 Location+ grade was his worst since models started tracking it in 2020. While Toronto’s offense disappointed, we can’t blame the defense. The Blue Jays ranked first in team defensive runs saved and fourth in outs above average.
Bassitt will probably come cheap in fantasy next season, but he’ll also be 36; we would prioritize younger versions of this profile.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 124
Final Rank: 627
We saved the worst for last. After a power breakout saw Tork pop 31 homers in 2023, he was the 11th first baseman drafted on average, just ahead of Josh Naylor. Well, Torkelson struggled so badly in the first two months -- four HRs, .201 average, .597 OPS -- that the former first overall pick was sent back to Triple-A.
Torkelson then worked on his swing, especially to catch up to high-velocity fastballs, and was much better upon returning in the second half (.781 OPS). But you probably didn’t even have him for the rebound! Even with the improvements, Tork only amassed 10 total homers and 82 combined runs plus RBI. He earned NEGATIVE $10 for the season!
Overall, he lost 3 mph of average exit velocity and more than half the barrel rate (14% to 6.7%). He wasn’t injured, so the hot second half of 2023 now looks more like an anomaly than a harbinger of a breakout.
Tork’s 2025 price should be very low, but we are skeptical. Even in his good season, Tork traded average for homers, the lineup is questionable, and the home park is one of the worst for power. We’ll also be tracking Tigers offseason news, as there’s no guarantee he’ll be their starting first baseman.
Others receiving votes (ADP):
- Marcus Semien (31)
- Camilo Doval (57)
- Zack Gelof (127)
- Mitch Keller (157)
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