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Bruce Clark shares how Pythagorean expectations from 2023 can identify which NFL teams are more likely to disappoint in 2024. Which 2023 playoff teams may not make it in 2024?
The NFL is a massively competitive league and parity is an expected part of the sport. The league pushes teams to .500 through a lot of means -- through giving the worst teams better draft picks, implementing the hard salary cap, and having better teams within divisions play more difficult competition the following season. This, combined with the fact of the low sample size of the NFL season, means teams often overperform or underperform due to luck in addition to the more direct intervention the league forces to implement parity.
The games are played on the field and not on spreadsheets and calculators; however, you can certainly use predictive statistics to determine who would most likely surpass their previous season or fall back a bit with the rest of the league. One of the most commonly used predictive formulas is the Pythagorean expectation formula, traditionally used in baseball but having similar models adapted for other sports. The theory suggests that you are more likely to be able to predict success in future seasons by looking at the number of runs scored and runs allowed in a model than you would be by looking at the team's records.
Below are three teams more likely to regress to the mean than others in the league negatively. Prior to discussing the teams, a brief explanation of the statistical model is also shared -- feel free to skip through the more dry methodology portion. A quick note: I'm not necessarily stating that these three teams will be bad by any means, just that they are less likely to be as successful as they were last season. These teams can have very good seasons while also having worse records than last year.
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Methodology
The formula used to help determine the overachievers from last season -- i.e., the ones more likely to regress from last season negatively -- was derived, in part, by following the deductive formula used by Div Tiwari in a 2022 piece. The data collected was points scored, points allowed, and raw wins. Using that data, the following formula calculated how many wins were expected last season from each team:
The exponent p was individually collected for each team using the following formula:
I took the absolute value of the average p score across the league for last season, which allowed me to use the expected wins formula with an exponent of 2.19 for 2023. Upon identifying expected wins for each team, that number is subtracted from each team's total wins for the season to determine overachievers and underachievers.
Doing the same process for 2022 to identify teams that will negatively regress gave us great predictive success. In 2022, seven teams won at least 1.5 games more than their "expected" win total using the calculation; those teams won an average of 2.57 fewer games in 2023 than in 2022. The three biggest "overachievers" in overall record in 2022 (Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings) ended up with at least three fewer wins the following season.
The calculations for 2023 indicated three teams in particular that are more likely to win fewer games in 2024. In the interest of full disclosure, the Pittsburgh Steelers were also a significant overachiever last season but are not included in this list, largely due to the upgrade at quarterback from Kenny Pickett to either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. A team is less likely to regress negatively with an upgrade at quarterback. The following teams enter 2024 with the same quarterback situation that they entered 2023 with.
Cleveland Browns
Another NFL future coming from the AFC North. I’m going against a team that others may be very high on.
• Browns U8.5 Wins (+120)
The Browns were everyone’s playoff dark horse last year, but unfortunately the Flacco magic ran out. I think most will assume an improved team with… pic.twitter.com/lMkx1jdhxy
— Smoky Bets (@SmokySteamBets) May 25, 2024
Cleveland was a fun story last season after it signed eventual Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco to start at quarterback for the final six games of the season. The Browns rode the best defense in terms of yards per game allowed to an 11-6 record and a playoff appearance. However, per the calculation model above, the Browns overachieved last season by 1.66 games. There are many explanations for the possibility of negative regression for Cleveland.
Cleveland was 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer last year and 3-4 in games decided by 17 or more, not counting its 31-point loss in the playoffs to the Houston Texans. Cleveland got a few lucky bounces in its direction toward the end of close games, having the second-most game-winning drives despite the second-highest interception percentage. Deshaun Watson has been a fairly poor quarterback since playing for the Browns as well, accounting for 16 total touchdowns and 11 total turnovers in 12 games.
The overachieving very likely can be attributed to their best-in-the-league defense; however, regression on the defensive side of the ball is also likely to happen -- since 2014, the No. 1-ranked defense in yards allowed ranks an average of ninth overall in that statistic the following season. With a good-but-not-great defense, the Browns could fall to an eight- or nine-win team and miss the postseason.
Detroit Lions
I will not be as confident in the Detroit Lions repeating as division winners. They will go through serious regression and I won’t be as confident in them. In fact the competition is even much steeper now. The NFC North will be the most competitive division in the league https://t.co/T4crIjb3Ox
— Hamza (@hammytakes) January 29, 2024
Detroit's vast history of ineptitude seems to have waned in recent years under coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff. Last season, the Lions went an impressive 12-5 and won their division for the first time since 1993. The Lions were even three points away from the Super Bowl. Despite all that, the model suggests the Lions overachieved by 2.08 games.
Detroit is a very aggressive team that can both bolster and hinder its record. Last season, the aggressiveness worked well -- it finished the season 5-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Detroit also had a favorable schedule in 2023; the Lions ended the season with an impressive 8-1 record against teams who ended the season with a losing record.
Their 2024 strength of schedule is anticipated to be significantly more difficult, moving from 24th overall to 11th in terms of opponent record or projected record. It's very possible Detroit is still going to be a good team this season, but it could end up on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Philadelphia Eagles
If the Eagles decide to keep Nick Sirianni as their head coach, this is going to be the most deflated that I’ve felt during an offseason in a long, long time.
Even if they add more talent, how can I trust Sirianni and his coaching staff to put them in a position to succeed?
— Anthony DiBona (@DiBonaPFN) January 19, 2024
Last season, Philadelphia entered as the reigning NFC champions and made the playoffs again on the back of its immensely talented roster, going 11-6 after its 14-3 2022 campaign. The season ended disappointingly as the Eagles won only one game for the rest of the season once the calendar flipped to December. The mathematical model suggests the 2023 Eagles overperformed by a league-high 2.33 games last year, suggesting they were closer to a league-average team than a true contender.
The 2023 Eagles lived in one-score games last season, playing in 10 games decided by seven points or fewer and going 7-3 in those close matchups. However, if the games were blowouts, the Eagles were on the losing end -- the team ended the regular season 0-3 in games decided by 17 points or more and lost by an astounding 23 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the playoffs. Philadelphia was legitimately one of the worst teams in the league after its bye week in Week 10, being outscored by its opponents by 52 points in the final eight weeks of the regular season, 28th in the NFL in that span.
The Eagles negatively regressed significantly after their Super Bowl appearance and still overachieved, and that was with future Hall of Famers Fletcher Cox and Jason Kelce, who have since announced their retirements. There's a decent chance they miss out on a double-digit win season and the playoffs this year due to it.
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