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Are top prospects Joey Loperfido and Pete Crow-Armstrong fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball values.
This column is not exclusively about prospects, but most of the interesting names this time of year are prospects. Next week, we'll try to find something to look at other than prospects.
That's not an option this week. Two more names of note have recently been called up: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Joey Loperfido.
Both offer intriguing fantasy baseball upside, but one is more likely to realize it than the other. Furthermore, the shape of that production might not be what you expect. Let's take a closer look at two outfielders.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) - 13% Rostered
Pete Crow-Armstrong made his MLB debut last season but failed to log a hit in 19 PAs as a 21-year-old. Fortunately for him, his first MLB hit was a big fly:
Pete Crow-Armstrong's first Major League hit is a homer! pic.twitter.com/oLy9RM7yIs
— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2024
He probably won't keep doing that. Crow-Armstrong (or PCA) has a scouting report that reads similarly to other prospects we've looked at:
Crow-Armstrong is a great glove with good wheels, and he knows how to steal a bag. In 2022, he went 32-for-43 (74% success rate) on SB attempts across all levels. In 2023, he went 39-for-51 (76%). With everyday playing time, fantasy managers could expect 20-30 steals from him.
Crow-Armstrong is also not an MLB-caliber hitter. While he possesses decent raw power, he struggles to access it in games and his hit tool is well below average. PCA's MiLB history confirms both points.
He reached the high minors in 2023 with Double-A (Tennessee), logging 547 PAs and a .289/.371/.527 line. He hit 14 homers and swiped 27 bases, giving him category juice in fantasy.
It looks intriguing, but solid surface numbers mask disastrous peripherals. Crow-Armstrong's 11.6% HR/FB wasn't impressive, with his power output the result of a wild 55.8% FB%. His 24.8% IFFB% meant a lot of those flies were harmless pop-ups even once you halve the minor league figure for an MLB equivalent, so there's no way he would repeat his .351 BABIP at the highest level.
Likewise, Crow-Armstrong's plate discipline looks good with a 9.1% BB% against a 24% K%. However, there was a ton of swing-and-miss with a 14.7% SwStr%. Walking him is effectively a double, and he doesn't project for the power needed to keep MLB pitchers honest.
The Cubs promoted Crow-Armstrong to Triple-A (Iowa) and he hit .271/.350/.479 with six homers and 10 steals over 158 PAs. Again, fantasy friendly on the surface and problematic under the hood.
His FB% settled in at a more reasonable 36.6%, but he still had a pop-up problem with a 23.5% IFFB%. His 17.6% HR/FB was below average by Triple-A standards, and his SwStr% ballooned to 15.9%. The result was a 29.7% K% that his 9.5% BB% couldn't offset.
PCA began the 2024 campaign in Iowa and was awful, hitting .203/.241/.392 with two homers and five steals across 83 PAs. His SwStr% increased again to 17.3%, contributing to his abysmal 3.6% BB% and 28.9% K%. His 46.3% FB% was high for someone who runs like Crow-Armstrong, and his 8% HR/FB was pathetic.
If you're desperate for steals, Crow-Armstrong will run to the extent he gets on base. Sadly, this Chump lacks the baseball skills to make that matter for fantasy purposes.
Joey Loperfido (OF, HOU) - 21% Rostered
Joey Loperfido is an interesting case. News of his call-up hyped him as a huge prospect, but he failed to crack the top-100 prospect list at MLB.com or FanGraphs. Similarly, he lasted until the seventh round in the 2021 draft and signed under-slot (meaning the Astros drafted him to save money).
The 24-year-old has some prospect pedigree, ranking fourth in Houston's system per FanGraphs and sixth per MLB Pipeline. That said, his scouting report is bland:
Loperfido's hit tool is weak, he doesn't get to his raw power in games, and he's not especially fast or a great glove. Going beyond the numbers, his scouting report says that Loperfido has a "long stroke" inviting swing-and-miss and produces a lot of "ground-ball contact." Not great!
Loperfido's numbers on the farm illustrate issues. He reached Double-A (Corpus Christi) in 2023 and slashed .296/.392/.548 with 19 HRs and 20 SBs in 365 PAs. His plate discipline was strong with a 12.9% BB% and 22.2% K%, but his 31.8% FB% wasn't high enough to take full advantage of his 25.7% HR/FB.
Loperfido earned a promotion to Triple-A (Sugar Land) and struggled to a .235/.333/.403 line with five homers and four steals over 138 PAs. His 26.7% FB% wasn't high enough for his 25% HR/FB, and his K% spiked to 32.6%. He still earned his walks with an 11.6% BB%.
Loperfido returned to Sugar Land to begin 2024 and excelled, hitting .287/.371/.713 with 13 HRs and five steals in 122 PAs. His FB% surged to 41.5%, but that doesn't mean he solved his grounder problem. Instead, his LD% fell to 12.3% from 23.2% at Double-A and 21.3% at Triple-A. LD% is a fickle stat predictive of nothing in small samples, so Loperfido still wasn't lifting enough. His 30.3% K% was still problematic as well.
When the scouting report and MiLB track record agree, we have a good idea who a player is. Loperfido could become a slugger by adding loft to his swing, but he isn't that guy today and probably won't be this year.
Of course, slugging is only one way to generate fantasy value. Loperfido's low FB% rates should help him post a plus BABIP. He's also allergic to pop-ups, posting an IFFB% of 5.4% at Double-A, 5% at Triple-A in 2023, and 3.7% at Triple-A this year. Once we halve those rates, Loperfido never pops out.
His strikeouts aren't too concerning, either. His SwStr% this year is only 10.7%, suggesting his strikeouts are more the result of passivity than swing-and-miss. Patient hitters like Juan Soto post higher K% marks than expected, but the overall production is there.
Loperfido should be a batting average asset, and he'll steal given the opportunity. He went 32-for-43 (74%) on SB attempts in 2022 and 27-for-31 (87%) in 2023. This season, he's a perfect 5-for-5.
We don't know how Houston plans to deploy Loperfido, but he should be a Champ provided you're looking for batting average and speed. Loperfido is more valuable in OBP formats where his eye directly translates to fantasy production. He has power potential, but he'll probably need a few years to realize it.
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