X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Blake Snell Signs With the Giants - Fantasy Baseball Outlook for 2024

Corbin Young examines the Giants signing free agent starting pitcher Blake Snell. How can Snell's skills provide fantasy value in 2024 with a new team?

The joke in the fantasy baseball community involved the free agent market occurring quickly in the football world. We had tons of notable football players signed, traded, and released in the first few days of free agency before some of the top players in the baseball free-agent market. 

That felt head-scratching because of the many injuries, mainly to the starting and relieving pitcher realm, including Gerrit Cole, Eury Perez, Jhoan Duran, Devin Williams, David Bednar, and more. On the evening of March 18th, one of the top starting pitcher free agents signed for a well-paid deal with the Giants. 

We'll look at this pitcher's skills, arsenal, and how they might fit into the new team context. Should we target this player early in drafts? Or should we temper expectations after one of his best seasons? Let's examine the numbers to identify what to expect from this player in 2024. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Snell Deserved Big Payday

Blake Snell earned his second-most rotisserie value of $27 in 2023, with a career high of $36 in 2018. Unsurprisingly, Snell posted his second-highest innings total after two straight seasons with 128 in 2021 and 2022. Once the contract becomes final, Snell would average the eighth-most average annual value behind Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Strasburg in active contracts. 

Since Snell entered the league, he racked up the 11th-most strikeouts at 1,223 and the 15th-best strikeout rate at 29.7 percent behind Cole and Robbie Ray with at least 1,000 punchouts. Since Snell struggles with control, his 18.7 percent strikeout minus walk rate ranked 29th among starting pitchers with at least 500 strikeouts since 2016. 

 

Near-Elite Secondary Offerings

We can look past the control issues when a pitcher like Snell rocks an above-average swinging strike rate in six consecutive seasons. That's evident in his near-elite secondary offerings. Snell's slider ranked seventh in swinging-strike rate at 21.6 percent, with the curveball ranking first at 24.2 percent. He joined Eury Pérez as the only starting pitcher, with their slider and curveball earning a swinging-strike rate of 20 percent or above.

Throughout Snell's career, he dominated with both breaking pitches. His curveball has a career swinging-strike rate of 21.6 percent, with the slider at 23.3 percent. For context, the league average for swinging-strike rate on sliders finished at 16.2 percent compared to 13.3 percent on the curveball in 2023.

Don't sleep on the changeup for Snell because it's a quality offering against right-handed hitters. He threw it only to righties, eliciting a 24.3 percent swinging-strike rate in 2023. Snell's changeup finished over seven percentage points above his career norm at 16.7 percent. It plays off his two breaking pitches well, as it possesses 12-13 inches of arm-side fade down and away from right-handed hitters. 

 

Bake in Some Regression

Anytime a player hits near career bests, we should expect some regression, though the question is usually how much. Snell's xERA of 3.63 shows a mid-3.00 ERA pitcher who posted an elite ERA at 2.25. The projections have his ratios around the xERA, meaning the floor for a starting pitcher with nasty stuff like Snell. We might see a slight shift toward his career ball rate of 39 percent after a career-worst ball percentage of 41.6 percent.

It's probably safe to bake in slight regression from an innings standpoint since Snell averaged 123 innings in four out of the past six seasons, not including 2020. If we use a mixture of 2021 and 2022 as the floor with 128 innings, an 18-20 percent strikeout minus walk rate, and an above-average swinging-strike rate (13.8 percent), Snell lives in an ADP range where there's risk and upside near Cole Ragans, Zach Eflin, Jesus Luzardo, and Joe Ryan

When we look at the batted ball results by pitch for Snell, it suggests regression, given some of the best outcomes of his career. We drooled over Snell's swinging-strike rates, which shouldn't continue into 2024. However, the results might regress closer to his career averages. That doesn't mean we should fade Snell, but it reminds us to proceed with caution on expecting another elite season. 

 

Park Factors and Groundballs

Whenever we discuss park factors, there's some noise and actionable data. The information is likely more notable on the outlier ends, with Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas City, and Detroit. San Francisco also falls into that bucket, as they rank 27th in home run pack factors according to Baseball Savant. So, why does that matter?

Snell generated the highest groundball rate (44 percent) since 2018, not including 2020. That's three points above his career average, mainly coming via the curveball and changeup generating groundballs 56-57 percent of the time. Throughout Snell's career, his curve and changeup induced groundballs at 51 percent. We should expect regression, mainly via the curveball, allowing the second-lowest wOBA (.113) against righties in 2023. More groundballs typically mean weaker contact quality, but sometimes batted ball results aren't sticky. 

 

2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Based on projections, Snell comes in as player 94 overall, about 14 spots below his ADP. Given the starting pitcher injuries in Spring Training, Snell's ADP might increase slightly, so the gap widens based on projected value.

If we bump Snell's innings projection to 166, he turns into a value selection at player 63 overall. Since projections bake in regression, Snell's strikeout skills and home park look like a target in most drafts as an SP2 or SP3, depending on league depth. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Seager7 mins ago

Out Wednesday As He Continues To Manage Calf Issue
Will Benson11 mins ago

Swinging A Hot Bat In Minor Leagues
Rece Hinds19 mins ago

Flashing Power At Triple-A
Green Bay Packers1 hour ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans1 hour ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett1 hour ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns2 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals2 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown2 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Harrison Bader2 hours ago

Scorches Pinch-Hit Home Run
Kyle Brnovich2 hours ago

Strikes Out Seven In Season Debut
Jordan Walker2 hours ago

Posts Two More Hits
Pittsburgh Steelers2 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Tim Tawa2 hours ago

Homers In Third Straight Contest
Riley Greene2 hours ago

Blasts Another Homer
Jordan Mason2 hours ago

To Factor Into Short-Yardage, Goal-Line Situations
Cody Freeman3 hours ago

Goes Deep Twice On Tuesday
Bennedict Mathurin3 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Joe Milton III3 hours ago

Patriots Have Received Multiple Trade Inquiries For Joe Milton III
Jimmy Crooks3 hours ago

Enjoying Strong Start At Triple-A
Myles Turner3 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Kyle Tucker3 hours ago

Homers In Fourth Straight Game
Jackson Merrill3 hours ago

Inks Nine-Year Contract Extension
Al Horford3 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Nick Kurtz3 hours ago

Tallies Three Hits On Tuesday
Jrue Holiday3 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis3 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown3 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham3 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis4 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki4 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 On Tuesday
Brent Rooker4 hours ago

Goes Deep In Tuesday's Loss
Shea Langeliers4 hours ago

Launches Second Long Ball Of The Season
Casey Mize4 hours ago

Allows One Hit In Season Debut
Heliot Ramos5 hours ago

Goes Deep On Tuesday
Logan Webb5 hours ago

Tosses Seven Innings Of One-Run Ball
Evan Bouchard5 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel5 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko5 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson5 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson6 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin6 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young10 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama10 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim11 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Eugenio Suárez11 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk11 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Evan Engram12 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Caleb Williams12 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge12 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Daniel Jones13 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin13 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice13 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Garrett Wilson13 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell13 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Derrick Henry13 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey13 hours ago

Is Healthy
Matt Fitzpatrick15 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners15 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay16 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland16 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti16 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL16 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette16 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
New York Giants16 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Guerschon Yabusele17 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns17 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter17 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry17 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips17 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith17 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball17 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter18 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey18 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton18 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale18 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant18 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal18 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud18 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba18 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry19 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault19 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere19 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn19 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro19 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä22 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway22 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Jordan Staal22 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy22 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris23 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk23 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith1 day ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment1 day ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF