X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Busts Due To Bounce Back for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Cristian Javier Shane McClanahan - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News, Starting Pitchers

Connelly Doan takes a look at a few MLB starting pitchers who underperformed but may be due for positive regression in 2024 fantasy baseball.

When it comes to identifying potential fantasy value, one of the hardest things to do is to put faith in a player who burned you last season or who did not meet expectations. Even more complicated is figuring out which of those players have the chance to return to form.

Fortunately, fantasy managers have tons of data to help make that process a little easier. This is particularly true for pitchers, who have metrics for each pitch, batted-ball profiles, and the defenses behind them, among others.

This article will identify three starting pitchers who underperformed expectations in 2023 but have what it takes to bounce back in 2024. Hopefully, this will help fantasy managers start targeting potential draft value as we gear up for the 2024 fantasy baseball season!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Starting Pitcher Bounce-Backs Candidates

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease came into 2023 off of an outstanding 2022 season as a higher-end fantasy option. Unfortunately, his 2023 season ended up being his worst since his rookie season. He went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 27.3% strikeout rate in 33 starts and 177 innings pitched. What indicates that he could return to form?

First, let's get the negatives out of the way. The 28-year-old has always had walk issues, which was the case in 2023 with a 10.1% walk rate. His career mark is 10.4%, so at least he wasn’t worse than that. Second, Cease did see about a one-MPH drop on each of his three main pitches. He still brings more velocity than most pitchers, but this is something to monitor throughout 2024.

Now, to the rebound potential. There are several signs indicating Cease got unlucky. Returning to his pitch arsenal, his pitches maintained the same spin rates and his pitch location was similar to 2022, yet he gave up career-high hard contact which was in the bottom third of baseball. His 4.10 SIERA still wasn’t high-end, but it was lower than his ERA.

Further, he suffered a career-high .330 BABIP. While this somewhat makes sense given his batted-ball results, his career BABIP is .297 and his batted-ball results, while not great, were not that much worse than his career results.

All in all, you can be wary of some of the flaws in Cease’s game, but acknowledge that he can provide more fantasy value than he did last season. His strikeout upside is still high-end, which makes his high-three/low-four ERA career mark and 1.31 career WHIP tolerable. Everything seemed to go wrong for Cease last season, which seems unlikely to repeat given his track record.

 

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

After starting his career with three strong seasons, things took a surprisingly poor turn for Cristian Javier in 2023. The 26-year-old went 10-5 with a career-worst 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 23.1% strikeout rate in 31 starts and 162 IP. What went wrong and why can he avoid it in 2024?

Javier is essentially a fastball-slider pitcher, so he has little room for error. He has spent his career throwing his fastball up in the zone while avoiding hard contact. He still threw his fastball up in the zone but lost about one MPH from 93.8 MPH to 92.7 MPH. Consequently, he posted a career-high 54.3% flyball rate with the pitch and a HR/FB% that jumped from 9.7% to 12.7%.

Additionally, his slider had much less success due to poor pitch location. He left the pitch in the middle of the plate, rather than painting the outside corner to right-handed hitters. This heavily affected his strikeout numbers, as his swinging-strike rate plummeted from 16.9% to a career-low 10.2%.

Slider Location 2022 vs. 2023

The issues with Javier’s 2023 stats were all things he was able to avoid from 2020 through 2022 while still applying the same pitching approach. His BABIP through that time was .223 compared to .272, his strikeout rate was 30.9% compared to 23.1%, and his SIERA was 3.62 compared to 4.76.

After over 300 IP of avoiding damaging contact with his fastball and getting swings and misses with his slider, expect Javier to be able to get back to those results in 2024.  

 

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene was considered a top fantasy prospect for some time and now has two big-league seasons under his belt. While his 30.7% career strikeout rate has lived up to the hype, his 4.62 ERA has not. His 2023 was worse than 2022, as he went 4-7 with a 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 30.5% strikeout rate in 22 starts and 112 IP. Can he finally reach expectations in 2024?

Greene’s 98.3-MPH fastball paired with his slider should have all the makings of a dominant pitcher, and his strikeout rate and 13.4% overall swinging-strike rate met expectations. What didn’t meet expectations was his poor batted-ball results.

While he didn’t give up much contact at 72.5%, the contact he did allow was very hard. Greene’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball to go with a 17.4-degree launch angle. 

Consequently, Greene gave up a poor .339 BABIP and 14.3% HR/FB rate. His pitch location and high velocity may have led to such hard-hit metrics, as he tended to leave the ball in the middle of the plate at times.

Greene has yet to show his true potential, but there are enough signs there to make me think he could put it all together in 2024. His two-pitch mix has the strikeout skills, but pitch location has held him back. This is something that can be learned, and Greene is just 24 years old.

Even more encouraging, his 3.74 SIERA was much lower than his ERA, despite his batted-ball profile. Greene’s stuff is so good that he should be able to improve overall even if he doesn’t fully fix his location issues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF