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Tony takes a look at the top teams after Week 15 in the AFC and NFC and assesses which teams have the best chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2023.
As the playoff hunt gets underway, several teams atop the AFC and NFC are eager to lay claim to their respective conference's number-one seed and prepare for a run to play in Super Bowl LVIII.
The Niners remain the favorite after steamrolling teams over the last few weeks, while other top contenders like the Cowboys and Eagles have more questions than answers. Can anyone stop San Francisco?
With Week 16 approaching, we want to closely examine some of the league’s most convincing contenders and present their case to hoist the Lombardi come February.
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#1 - The San Francisco 49ers
There is not a more complete team in football right now than the San Francisco 49ers. Sitting at 11-3, the Niners' three losses came in consecutive weeks against playoff-hopeful teams, but they have now won six in a row. After demolishing the Seahawks twice and blowing out the Eagles, the Niners are separating themselves from the pack.
Offensively, they rank number one in DVOA and have elite players at every position. Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy are in the MVP race, while George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams are all in the upper echelon at their positions. Kyle Shanahan's system complements their talents perfectly, and the unit looks unstoppable at times.
On defense, they rank fourth in DVOA and are one of two teams to rank in the top five in both offense and defense. The pass-rushing group of Nick Bosa, Chase Young, and Arik Armstead is as strong as it gets, and they have thrived at defending the pass this year. Their run defense is the only area where they aren't elite, but teams still shouldn't be able to run at will against them.
Their Week 16 meeting versus the Ravens will be challenging, but the final two games after that against the Commanders and Rams are likely wins. They are in the driver's seat to secure the number one seed, and their only home loss came against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals team. While the NFC seems strong at the top, nobody can quite match up with the Niners, and they will likely hoist the Lombardi if they can stay healthy.
#2 - The Baltimore Ravens
On the AFC side, the conference is much deeper but slightly weaker at the top. Over the last few weeks, the Ravens have separated themselves from the pack and appear to be true favorites to win the conference. They sit at 11-3 and have won eight of their last nine games, with the only loss coming from their blown lead against the playoff-hopeful Browns.
The offense essentially starts and ends with Lamar Jackson, serving as the catalyst for everything they do on that side of the ball. With the new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens have operated more frequently from a traditional shotgun formation rather than the unique pistol formations with multiple backs and tight ends on the field.
The absence of Mark Andrews is significant, as this is a group that has historically struggled to consistently catch passes from Jackson. The running back room has suffered significant losses with J.K. Dobbins and now Keaton Mitchell, but Gus Edwards and Justice Hill should be able to carry the burden for the rest of the season. They are ranked fourth in offensive DVOA and hold the top rushing attack in football.
Baltimore is the only other team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and their defense currently ranks second, just behind the Browns. A solid pass rush, combined with the speed of linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, contributes to their dynamic performance against both the pass and run. Rookie safety Kyle Hamilton has made a massive impact on the defense from the outset.
None of the remaining games will be easy, with matchups against the 49ers, Dolphins, and Steelers. The Browns have a very favorable schedule and are still breathing down their neck in the AFC North, which could significantly harm Baltimore's chances if they falter down the stretch. As long as Jackson remains healthy, this team has as good a chance as anyone in the AFC.
#3 - The Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs currently sit at just 9-5 this year, having lost three of their last five games. While a win at Gillette Stadium in Week 15 got them back on track, this has not been a typical season for a Patrick Mahomes-led team. Fortunately, they are poised to face three backup quarterbacks to end the season and are likely to retain the AFC West title while still contending for the top seed.
The offense has taken a slight step back this year, yet they still rank fifth in DVOA. Travis Kelce has dealt with injuries, and it appears that the defense is finally adjusting to keying in on the future Hall-of-Famer, challenging the inexperienced receivers to step up. Rashee Rice has been progressing nicely of late, but the overall receiver room needs to make strides if the Chiefs aim to repeat as champions.
The most compelling reason (aside from Mahomes) that I am not counting this team out yet is their defense. They currently rank eighth overall and have been robust in defending the pass. Undoubtedly, this marks the most consistent defense of the Mahomes era, and if they can enhance their run defense, opponents will find it difficult to score against them.
Though it hasn't been aesthetically pleasing of late for this Chiefs' team, we witnessed last year what happens when you underestimate Mahomes and Andy Reid. They now possess a team that doesn't necessarily need to score 30-40 points to win, and defeating Mahomes with this defense will be a tremendous task come playoff time.
#4 - The Philadelphia Eagles
The NFC Champions from a year ago got off to a blazing-hot 10-1 start, but they have lost three games and continue to see their stock plummet every week. Losses in Weeks 13 and 14 were concerning but understandable, as they lost to the Niners and on the road versus Dallas. Their Week 16 loss at Seattle versus Drew Lock has people questioning them, and they will need a strong bounce-back to end the regular season.
On offense, the Eagles have seemingly picked up where they left off last year, with just a slight decline. They rank seventh in offensive DVOA and have talent at every position. The offensive line with Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce is one of the league's best, D'Andre Swift has thrived as the workhorse, and the trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert forms one of the best pass-catching trios in the league. Jalen Hurts isn't quite having the season he had a year ago, but he is still playing well enough to make a run.
The defense has been the downfall of this team, specifically against the pass. They rank just 24th in DVOA against the pass but 12th against the run. While injuries haven't helped them at all, they have been very underwhelming this year, and opposing passing attacks seem to always have their way against the Eagles. While they should be able to stop most rushing attacks, any championship-level passing team should tear them apart.
The Eagles are tied for first in the NFC East but currently don't have the tiebreaker over the Eagles. After the gauntlet of the last few weeks, they get the Giants twice and the Cardinals, all of which should be wins. However, either the play of Hurts has to be more consistent, or the pass defense has to step up, or they could be out before the NFC Championship.
#5 - The Dallas Cowboys
No team in the NFL experiences higher highs and lower lows than the 2023 Dallas Cowboys. When they are at their best, it seems like every team in the NFL would struggle to beat them. However, plenty of playoff contenders have made them appear very weak and have blown them out. Dallas sits at 10-4, first in the NFC East due to tiebreakers, and their home/road splits suggest they really need to win the division to have hope.
The offense, led by MVP-hopeful Dak Prescott, is as dynamic as any offense in the NFL when they're on. CeeDee Lamb is one of the game's best wideouts, Tony Pollard has continued to thrive out of the backfield, and Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson have played their roles well too. When Prescott is firing on all cylinders, this team is dangerous, and the Prescott-Lamb connection sure looks like a championship-level duo at times.
They also rank ninth on defense, including sixth against the pass thanks to a strong pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary. Micah Parsons is putting together another DPOY-level campaign, and they had seemingly dominated against the run before James Cook and the Bills ran all over them.
With games against the Dolphins and Lions left, compared to what the Eagles have, it's very unlikely that they will secure a home playoff game. They currently sit at 3-4 on the road with no wins against playoff-hopeful teams when away from Jerry's World. While they look really good at times when things seem to be clicking, their consistent struggles on the road make it hard to envision them winning more than one road playoff game against the lowly NFC South.
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