RADIO
RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 30, 2023.
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Today’s slate is a monster, with 14 games featuring all the best teams in the league. Many of these teams are in absolute smash spots, but with so many games, it’s unlikely that any one team is going to carry too much ownership. In what may seem like a counterintuitive move, I’m actually going to narrow my pool to only those stacks that really pop in the Heat Map. Given the size of the slate, it’s unnecessary to get too cute with our lineups.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; five of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Florida Panthers (FLA2 - Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe)
It’s always a good sign when Sean and I agree on a stack at first look. He pointed out to me that the Panthers are already sitting in Montreal waiting for the Canadiens, who just finished up a game in Columbus before flying home tonight. That’s generally a situation where we want to look at the road team regardless of the difficulty of their matchup. As it turns out, the Panthers have the best matchup on the slate according to the data.
Montreal has been lucky at home this year, allowing only 2.28 goals per 60 minutes despite advanced metrics saying they should be allowing nearly a full goal more than that. Montreal’s Achilles heel is that they allow a ton of high-danger chances; 14.49 per game at home this year. That’s one of the highest totals in the league, and one that a dangerous team like Florida can exploit. The Panthers' second line is aggressive and lethal, and they should get the most ice time with Montreal’s most generous defensive pairings. They are the clear top team on the slate, which is saying a lot when the San Jose Sharks' pathetic defense is also on the slate.
Boston Bruins (BOS2 - Brad Marchand, Matthew Poitras, Danton Heinen)
Speaking of those Sharks, they’ll take their “talents” to Boston to face the Bruins. San Jose is allowing 3.7 goals per 60 minutes on the road, which is the highest total in hockey. Even with regression, they are looking at three goals allowed per 60 minutes, which is very bad. Boston hasn’t played up to expectations yet on offense, at least not at home, where they are scoring almost three-quarters of a goal fewer per 60 minutes than expected.
There isn’t really a bad matchup for any Boston line tonight, but their second line should spend the most ice time with San Jose’s worst defensive pairing so that’s who we are going to roll with. The money that you save by using this line over the top line will allow you to spend up on a second stack, thus providing you with a more balanced lineup than someone who is going to try to jam David Pastrnak onto their roster.
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR1 - Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Michael Bunting)
The Islanders have allowed three or more goals in seven straight road games, yet the data suggests that things could get so much worse. Most of the goals they’ve allowed have been on the power play, as they’ve only allowed 1.94 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play this season. Advanced data says that they should have allowed 3.14 goals per 60 in similar situations.
As bad as they’ve been, if they start to see any regression in five-on-five play, it could be a disaster. Even without that regression, three goals allowed in seven straight games is a juicy enough matchup that we’d want to attack it. The Hurricanes have been hot at home, but they’ve still scored 0.17 goals fewer than projected in five-on-five play, so there’s some room for growth.
The top line should spend the most time on the ice with Islanders defender Noah Dobson, and that’s exactly who we want to attack. Michael Bunting shifting to the top line for Carolina has made them a more affordable stack, and one that pairs well with many of the other mid to top-end stacks tonight.
Others in consideration: PIT1, SEA1, COL2, ANH1, EDM1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Seattle Kraken (SEA3 - Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, Yanni Gourde)
There aren’t many teams who can trot out a third line with as high of a ceiling as the Kraken. Over the last 10 games, this trio has averaged about 27 DraftKings points per game. That’s a strong level of production for a line that has a combined price point of just $12,700. The Maple Leafs have been horrible defensively at home this year, allowing over three and a half goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
Even if they regress to where the data says they should be, they’d still be a defense we want to target. This line should see a lot of time with the defensive pairing of Giordano/McCabe, and that’s who we want to attack on the Maple Leafs. Seattle’s top line has a slightly higher upside, but for the price, you really can’t beat the value that this line brings.
Others in consideration: FLA4, BOS4, BUF4, CAR3
Top Goalies to Target
Jake Oettinger (Dallas Stars)
The last time Jake Oettinger went into Calgary, he put up a monster score of 28.6 DraftKings points. In fact, it seems like every time Oettinger plays on the road, he’s stepping up his game. For the season, he’s averaging over 20 DraftKings points in road games, compared to just 8.4 fantasy points per game at home. Overall, Oettinger is allowing about a quarter fewer goals per game than expected this season.
As a team, the Stars have only allowed 2.34 goals per 60 minutes in road games, which is right in line with what the data says they should be doing. Team defensive data is one of the best ways to judge future success for a goalie, and when Dallas gets on the road, they allow fewer than 10 high-danger chances per game. They are a force on the road, and when you couple that with Oettinger’s high level of play, he projects to be a strong option for both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): John Gibson, Carter Hart, James Reimer, Juuse Saros, Thacher Demko
Others in consideration (Cash): Adin Hill, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jeremy Swayman
