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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 9 of the 2023 season (10/28/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
There is less football left in the last great college football season than there is behind us. It's bittersweet for me. I've had a pretty good year with spread picks, but all it takes is one bad week to have me back in the bread line. Instead of winding up in the bread line, let's make some bread!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a pretty good week last week, and I'm starting to pay off some of last year's losses. I am adding prior seasons to tabs on the sheet. Everything before 2014 is lost to the ghost of The Sports Blog Network. If anyone knows how to find those, I'll go farther back.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 9 (October 28, 2023)
(4) Florida State (-20.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Beating Pitt is one thing. Standing toe-to-toe with Jordan Travis and the Seminoles is quite another. FSU hasn't looked great on the road this year, so I'll lower the bet a little. They should still win this going away.
(6) Oklahoma (-9.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Booth is going to be rocking for this one. We are the unofficial rival of Kansas now and this is the last meeting for who knows how long. Kansas is going to show up for this one, but I have the feeling Oklahoma does too. I like this action for under 10 points. Give me Oklahoma.
Indiana at (10) Penn State (-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
No way. Indiana is bad, but even the chart above says under this line. I'm going with the Hoosiers to not get covered. I see a 24-3 game coming.
Massachusetts at Army (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is a tough one. UMass is playing better and Army isn't the team they were a couple of years ago. It is at Michie Stadium though. Give me Army, but I'm leaving this alone.
Connecticut at Boston College (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
BC beat the (appropriately named) Wreck by this. Give me the Eagles.
Maryland (-13.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I understand this line. I'm just not sure Maryland can cover it. The last time we saw them, the Terps lost outright to an Illinois team that may not be any better than their in-state counterparts. Give me Northwestern. I don't think they win, but it's going to be cold in Chicagoland. That really favors Northwestern.
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is South Carolina this bad? Absolutely. Aggies roll.
Houston at Kansas State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. The Cats are getting way too much credit for beating up on an average-at-best TCU team. Houston is going to make this interesting. Give me the Cougars. We don't know what kind of Wildcat Kansas State is. Are they Bobcats? Mountain lions? Tigers? We know what a cougar is. Kansas State...not so much and Willie isn't much help.
West Virginia at Central Florida (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know about this one. The West Virginia defense was gouged by Ollie Gordon, but they won't be the only ones. Gordon is much better than anyone, possibly even Mike Gundy himself, realized. I'll still take WVU outright.
Tulsa at SMU (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Tulsa as bad as Temple? That's basically what this line is saying. They're not, but the Ponies are rolling. Tulsa just got smashed by Rice. I'll take SMU.
Western Michigan (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, what are you guys doing here? Doesn't MACtion start next week? I can't believe I'm saying this, but Eastern has looked like the better team. I'll take the Eagles at home.
Clemson (-9.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is our first bowl game of the season: the Disappointment Bowl. Cade Klubnik was supposed to lead Clemson to an ACC title and Brennan Armstrong was supposed to put the Pack over the top. Believe it or not, the Pack have been far and away the bigger disappointment. Give me Clemson.
Memphis (-7.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chandler Rogers and the Mean Green just hung with Tulane – a ranked Tulane team – and they're still touchdown dogs at home? Every time I start to believe in North Texas, they fall apart. Will they do it to me again? Just in case, I'm lowering the bet.
(1) Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Who doesn't love the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party? Florida fans. The Bulldogs have won five of the last six games in the series. They have been outscored 76-27 in the last two years. This is the kind of game where it feels like Florida wins, but there is no way I'll bet on Graham Mertz to beat a team like Georgia. However, I will bet that the Florida defense can keep this close with Brock Bowers out. Give me the Gators.
BYU at (7) Texas (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Without Quinn Ewers? The BYU defense is better than they were early on. I don't think the Cougars win this, but I think they hang around. Give me BYU.
(8) Oregon (-6.5) at (13) Utah
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If I'm being honest, I was expecting a higher spread. I do still think Oregon will win. Deciding by how much is the issue. It's hard to beat a team that doesn't give the ball away and plays tough defense no matter how good the opposing offense is. I'm actually thinking about moving this down in my Pick Em too. Utah just doesn't lose at home. Utah's last home loss was to USC in the COVID season when there were no fans. The last time the Utes lost at home in front of fans was to Washington in 2018.
What's even better than that? The 2021 game was in Salt Lake City and the Utes blew Oregon off of the field. It wasn't close. I'm not saying they can do that again, but I'm going with the Utes at home. They may not win, but it should be really close.
Pittsburgh at (14) Notre Dame (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high, but it probably isn't. Give me the Irish.
(20) Duke at (18) Louisville (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This definitely takes a little of the luster off the game. After watching the FSU game, I will be more than a little surprised if Riley Leonard plays. We all know he wants to. Mike Elko was watching out for his future. The loss of Leonard hurts Duke more than the loss of Jordan hurts Louisville. I think I have to go with the Cardinals at home. If Leonard plays, I'm rethinking this.
Mississippi State at Auburn (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We saw just how bad the Bulldogs can be without Will Rogers last week. There is still no word on his status and we likely won't get one until just before kickoff. As if I needed another reason to leave this alone. Give me the Bulldogs.
Michigan State at Minnesota (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Calling both these teams a dumpster fire is an insult to the Nevada-San Diego State last week. This might somehow top it. If pressed, I'm going Minnesota, but I don't see a need to bet on two terrible teams.
Purdue at Nebraska (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down as I figured it would be. Nebraska is better than they were early on, but the quality of competition is also down. If you had told me 25 years ago that this fan base would be planting a flag on wins over Northern Illinois and Northwestern, I would have had you committed. That's where Nebraska football is now. The defense is legit. It was last year too. The offense is still a problem. Give me Purdue.
Virginia at Miami (FL) (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If there is any one team that could possibly screw this up, it would be Miami. Tyler Van Dyke is expected back though. It's back to reality for UVA. Give me Miami.
Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You all know who I think the better team is. With all due respect to Blake Shapen, I just feel better about Rocco Becht and the Cylones. Give me Iowa State.
East Carolina at UTSA (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Roadrunners covered this last week against a better team. Meep meep!
Southern Mississippi at Appalachian State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Welcome to the Disappointment Bowl undercard. Frank Gore Jr. had a bowl game for the ages last week and has been a non-factor this year. The boys in Boone were supposed to dominate the Fun Belt as early as their narrow loss to North Carolina in Week 2. I just can't with Southern Miss right now. Give me App State.
Miami (OH) at Ohio (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That hook makes me nervous in a rivalry game, but losing Brett Gabbert is a huge loss for the Redhawks. Give me Ohio.
(22) Tulane (-10.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many. Tulane struggled with a no-name quarterback and no-name receivers at home last week. Rice has JT Daniels, who is older than half of the starting NFL quarterbacks, and Luke McCaffrey. Rice might not win outright, but they're going to come close.
(24) USC (-10.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a game where I think USC gets right. If they are ever going to get right, it's here. Jaydn Ott is going to have a huge game in the loss, but it will be a loss none the less. Give me the Trojans.
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Both teams have burned me, but the Warhawks beat Army earlier this year. The Arkansas State run defense has been terrible. It could be a big day for Isaiah Woullard and Hunter Smith. Give me Monroe.
Louisiana at South Alabama (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jaguars are the better team, but they don't always play like it. Yes, I'm still scarred by that Central Michigan loss. Give me the Jags, but I'm still lowering the bet.
Wyoming at Boise State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't buy this. The Wyoming run defense is strong. Their own run game is strong. Andrew Peasley is playing the best football of his career and Boise can't decide on a quarterback. Oh, and the Cowboys won't be affected by the altitude. I'm taking Wyoming outright.
Marshall (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Rasheen Ali plays, Marshall should cover this without much of a problem. If not, it gets dicey in Conway. Give me Marshall, but the status of Ali is going to affect this bet. If he plays, I'll lay four on Marshall. If not, we'll leave it at two.
(5) Washington (-27.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm nervous about this after watching the uninspired performance in Seattle last weekend. The Huskies are more than capable of covering, but...uh...give me Washington, I guess.
(19) Air Force (-13.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels a little high to me. Colorado State has hung around with the best the Mountain West has to offer (and Colorado, for whatever that's worth). Air Force wins, but not by more than 10. I'm on the Rams again!
(21) Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I know this is a rivalry game and it's supposed to stay close, but I don't see it happening this year. Tennessee isn't as explosive as last year, but Devin Leary is a waste of a position in the Kentucky offense. Give me Tennessee.
Troy (-6.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bobcats are over. They almost lost to Monroe at home last week and did lose to Louisiana the game before. Kimani Vidal is going to have another monster game. Troy by double digits!
(3) Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Normally that hook would bother me, but not against a Wisconsin team that won't be able to run on this defense and still can't throw. Brutus rolls!
Vanderbilt at (12) Mississippi (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points. Having said that, Vanderbilt has been awful on the road. They were Gator bait in the Swamp, lost outright to UNLV, and lost to a bad Wake team by 16 points. Give me Ole Miss.
Colorado at (23) UCLA (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have a feeling that the masses are going to flock to UCLA after Colorado's epic meltdown against Stanford. That's the thing. Colorado has had 15 days to stew on that game. I think they come out here fired up and put a scare into UCLA. Give me the Ralphies.
(17) North Carolina (-11.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UNC is by far the better team, but as we saw last week, that means nothing. Is it the start of another Tarheel late-season meltdown? I'm only wagering one point on the Heels just in case it is.
Old Dominion at (25) James Madison (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Does anyone else think it's crazy that James Madison is finally ranked after a brutal game against Marshall? If the Herd had Rasheen Ali in that game, they might have won it. Old Dominion's Kadarius Calloway isn't quite as good as Ali, but he's pretty close. This feels high. JMU wins but doesn't cover.
Washington State (-5.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like this line. The Fun Devils have been tough at home, but Wazzu isn't nearly as bad as Arizona made them look. I'll take the Sun Devils and the points in Tempe, but I'm going to enjoy watching this game more than betting on it.
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Two words: Ollie Freaking Gordon. Pokes by double this...at least!
(11) Oregon State (-3.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I understand this line, but I don't agree with it. For as good as Cameron Ward is, he doesn't have a lot around him. D.J. Uiagalelei isn't expected to carry this team and he doesn't have to. The Beavers are quietly stacked on offense. Give me OSU.
New Mexico at Nevada (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's right...Nevada has a winning streak! It's longer than USC's and Penn State's, just to name a few. Let's make it two! The Pack is back!
UNLV at Fresno State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this. UNLV is quietly a good team. Fresno has been rather noisy about it. They beat Purdue on the road to open the season. That's why the line is this far for Fresno. I feel like this stays a one-score game. Give me the Rebels.
(25) San Jose State (-10.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that hook. Give me SJSU, but I'm lowering the bet.
I only have three minimum bets this week, so I'm giving the opportunity to make some points. I have 21 two-pointers and 18 on the three-line. I have eight four-point bets again this week and one more max bet than last week, so I'm pretty close to the same. My first max bet hit last night. Maybe I can finally hit them all this week!
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