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Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for Fantasy Baseball Week 25 (2023). He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
Expanded playoffs have led to more MLB teams still involved in the playoff chase into the month of September. That can be very exciting for fans of those teams as their favorite club makes an effort to reach October...but what about those fans whose team is already out of it?
This week, we include a six-pack of hitters and a six-pack of pitchers of interest from organizations whose MLB team is out of contention in 2023. While learning about more players in the system isn't the same as a playoff chase, it's at least something to get excited about!
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Pitches seen: 1. Justyn-Henry Malloy 2,472, 2. Harry Ford 2,399, 3. Jonatan Clase 2,380, 4. Cole Young 2,362.
- wRC+ (min. 250 PA): 1. Luken Baker 179, 2. Jonathan Aranda and Jacob Hurtubise 164, 4. Andrew Cossetti 163.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Justice Bigbie, OF, Detroit Tigers
Bigbie played four years for Western Carolina. While the slash line statistics were excellent, he never displayed standout power or speed in his collegiate time. This led him to fall to the 19th round of the 2021 draft before the Tigers picked him up.
Bigbie didn't catch many eyes last season in his full-season debut, split between Single-A and High-A. He slashed .269/.347/.380 with three home runs and four stolen bases over 406 plate appearances. For a guy who spent most of his time at first base, the lack of power production seemed to predict a future minor league "org guy" sort of role for Bigbie.
After offseason work on swing decisions and his swing path, he has completely turned a switch in 2022. He has played primarily in the corner outfield and slashed .343/.406/.540 with 18 home runs and six steals. He also slashed his strikeout rate, from a respectable 24% in 2022 to an impressive 15% this season.
VERDICT: Many inside and outside the Tigers organization are comparing Bigbie to fellow former 19th-round draft pick Kerry Carpenter, and with good reason. There's impressive bat control and raw power that Bigbie's unlocked this season, though where he will play ultimately leaves him on the deep and mid-size dynasty suggestion for now. He could jump to a must-own in all formats if he continues to build on this season.
Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals
The Royals stayed close to home in the third round of the 2021 draft, selecting Jensen from local Park Hill High School in Kansas City. He immediately showed off his potential and athleticism by slashing .281/.388/.404 and swiping four bags in 19 complex games in his pro debut that year.
Last season was Jensen's introduction to full-season ball as an 18-year-old in Single-A. He showed a little power and speed, with 11 home runs and eight stolen bases. But he also showed that he's not likely going to win a batting title anytime soon, with a swing grooved to air balls out that also led to a .227 batting average.
He's shown similar skills in High-A this season, playing most of the year at age 19. He's powered out 11 home runs, stolen 11 bases, and drawn plenty of walks. But he's also hit .211. The lefty-swinging Jensen has drawn a number of comparisons to Mickey Tettleton with his impressive power and his ability to walk his way on base, though also consistently putting up subpar batting averages.
VERDICT: The Royals already moved an impressive hitting catcher in MJ Melendez to the outfield in deference to Salvador Perez. Jensen could face a similar fate. By the time he's ready for big-league action, he could be the push that the Royals need to move Perez. As with most young catchers before Double-A, hold off for now. But the power is special if he can simply get on base enough to tap into it.
Wilfred Veras, OF, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox signed Veras in July of 2019 out of the Dominican. Due to the pandemic, he did not make his pro debut until 2021. He hit well in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .322/.416/.533 with four home runs, splitting his time between third base and first base.
Veras spent most of the 2022 season between third and first, spending most of the season at Single-A Kannapolis before being promoted to Double-A as part of "Project Birmingham" to end the season. He totaled 20 home runs and a .267/.318/.462 slash line over 113 games.
This year, Veras showed up to camp with improved physicality. The 6'2" right-handed hitter was moved out to right field where his fringe plus arm has played well this year, totaling nine outfield assists. He's also hit .289/.327/.467 with 16 home runs and 23 stolen bases on the year, showing significantly more base running skill in his new shape.
VERDICT: Veras has made himself into an impressive athlete and has legit plus raw power with an extremely fast bat. But he also rarely takes a walk. His bat speed can cover that up to some degree, but it can also be an issue when he begins facing MLB-quality fastballs and breaking stuff. Leave him be until he shows recognition of improvement for dynasty.
Colby Thomas, OF, Oakland Athletics
After choosing to go to school when the Orioles selected him out of high school in Georgia in the 37th round, Thomas was drafted in the third round in 2022 by the A's out of Mercer, signing for $750,000. If it weren't for shoulder surgery, Thomas would have had an argument to be selected at the back end of the first round.
Recovering from the surgery, Thomas did not make his pro debut until this season. He certainly made sure not to waste any time making an impact. Thomas has slashed .286/.351/.493 across both A-ball levels with 63 extra-base hits and 25 stolen bases.
Thomas does struggle with his pitch recognition, walking just 6.5% of the time while also striking out 26% of the time. As a college draftee, that pitch recognition in A-ball levels is something that will require adjustment.
VERDICT: The raw tools from Thomas are impressive, and he's been able to produce on the field so far. No reason to pick him up at any level until he can show an ability to handle upper minors pitching.
Jadiel Sanchez, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Most reviewing Phillies/Angels trades last deadline focused on Brandon Marsh and Logan O'Hoppe. But the two teams made another deal, as the Angels sent Noah Syndergaard to Philly for Mickey Moniak and Sanchez. The Puerto Rico native Sanchez was originally a Phillies draft pick in the 12th round of 2019.
The switch-hitting Sanchez worked his way to Single-A in 2021, but really had his first full season of play as a pro last year. He played 54 games in Single-A, working around multiple injuries. He slashed .259/.315/.426 showing some speed and power, with six home runs and a pair of stolen bases.
This year, Sanchez has been healthy all season, repeating Single-A and hitting all season. He's slashed .297/.378/.475 with 10+ doubles, triples, and home runs and seven steals as well. He's also had impressive plate control, with a 10.6% walk rate and 14.4% strikeout rate.
VERDICT: Sanchez has an impressive arm in right field, which has allowed him to tally 15 assists from the outfield this season and also be part of four double plays. He is still 22 and only in Single-A, however, so put him on a watch list. Let him be until he can show his stuff against upper minors pitching in 2024.
Agustin Ramirez, C, New York Yankees
The Yankees signed Ramirez in 2018 out of the Dominican Republic. He was highly regarded for his raw power and his arm strength and showed that off in his pro debut. He also made 11 errors behind the plate and totaled 14 passed balls.
After the pandemic, the Yankees utilized the next two seasons to work with Ramirez on his receiving and pitch-calling. He's improved somewhat. But as most young receivers deal with, his bat had moments of stagnation as he worked on his backstop skills. He was able to slash .304/.386/.506 in 44 complex games last season.
Built for power, Ramirez has shown that off more in 2023. He jumped up three levels to Double-A while totaling 18 home runs and 40 extra-base hits, also stealing 12 bases. He's also exhibited excellent plate discipline, with a 12.5% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate.
VERDICT: Ramirez has definite work to do behind the plate, even though he has improved significantly from his pro debut. But the bat might carry him quickly. He's a guy to grab in deep and mid-size dynasty leagues, but there's no need to worry about him in shallow leagues.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Swinging strike rate (Min. 70 IP): 1. Kyle Hurt 19.7%, 2. Drew Thorpe 18.6%, 3. Jose Espada 17.9%, 4. Cade Horton 17.1%, 5. Juan Sanchez 17%.
- Ground ball rate (Min. 70 IP: 1. Manuel Mercedes 62.9%, 2. Marino Santy 62.8%, 3. Brad Lord 61.7%, 4. J.P. Massey, 59.1%.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Carson Palmquist, SP, Colorado Rockies
Really not heavily regarded coming out of high school in Florida, Palmquist was plugged into the bullpen at Miami for his first two years of college. He showed enough in his second year to earn a spot on the Team USA roster. He really responded to coaching while playing on the national team before having a strong season for the Hurricanes in 2022, striking out 118 over 84 innings. The Rockies selected the lefty in the third round last summer.
In his first taste of full-season ball this year, Palmquist opened at High-A Spokane and found plenty of success. He earned a promotion to Double-A Hartford, where he's only had a handful of starts but struggled with hard hits. Overall, Palmquist has posted a 4.07 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 86 1/3 innings with a 129/35 K/BB ratio.
Palmquist's major differentiator is a sidearm look from the left side, which gives his pitches a tough angle. However, he doesn't work with any single pitch that grades plus, with his fastball, curve, and change mix each ranking average to above average. The unique arm angle also leads to moments with rough locations for Palmquist. He's been known to "aim" his heater in those moments, leading to very hard hits.
VERDICT: While he's made it to the upper minors as a starter, there's still plenty of reliever risk with Palmquist. He very well could be an excellent reliever from the left side with his unique arm angle. Right now, he's only rosterable in the deepest of dynasty leagues.
Jairo Iriarte, SP, San Diego Padres
The Padres signed Iriarte in July 2018 out of Venezuela. He struggled in his pro debut in 2019 in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 3.31 ERA over 35 1/3 innings. He also posted a 21/14 K/BB ratio and struggled to land his secondary pitches.
Iriarte has grown into his 6'2" frame more and more over the last few years. This past offseason, he took the final step. He showed up this spring with two to three extra ticks of velocity, reaching 100 mph and sitting at 94-96 with his fastball. That has also allowed his slider and change to play up, but it's also led to issues controlling the pitches.
This season, Iriarte has pitched at High-A and Double-A with 85 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, an 11.7% walk rate, and a 32.5% strikeout rate. The added movement on all three of his pitches has allowed Iriarte to limit home runs, but he's also plunked nine hitters this year.
VERDICT: The raw stuff is incredibly impressive, but Iriarte's struggle to control his added velocity has a significant reliever risk. The stuff is good enough to roster Iriarte in deep dynasty. Right now, mid-sized and shallow dynasties can have him on a watch list.
Chen-Wei Lin, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals signed Lin this July as the first-ever player in the organization from Taiwan. He spent two summers playing in American summer leagues, finishing with an impressive performance with Frederick this summer in the MLB Draft League.
Lin spent time in the complex league and Single-A this year. The 21-year-old has combined to post a 6.06 ERA over 16 1/3 innings with a 21/12 K/BB ratio.
The 6'7" Lin can brush 100 mph with his fastball, but he is still working to repeat his delivery and especially his arm swing in order to tunnel his pitches better.
VERDICT: Lin has a long way to go, but the raw talent is rare in the Cardinals system right now. It is filled with high-floor, low-upside arms. No reason to roster him yet, but definitely an intriguing talent.
Hunter Barco, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Even though he was strong in his commitment to the University of Florida, Barco went in the 24th round to the Mets in the 2019 draft. He went to school, and he was up and down in his time with the Gators before he had Tommy John Surgery in 2022. This dropped his draft position to the Pirates in the second round.
The 6'4" lefty works with a strong three-pitch mix that is all coming at a hitter from a low arm slot. He "only" tops out in the mid-90s but his fastball plays up when he's fully healthy due to the arm slot and the unique movement the slot creates. He also has a sweeping slider and a change that really pairs well with the heater.
Coming off his surgery this season, he's understandably had command issues. His control has been strong with a solid 7.7% walk rate and a very good 35.9% strikeout rate. He's been more hittable than he (and the Pirates) would like as he's missed spots at times, despite generally filling up the strike zone.
VERDICT: Barco has an excellent lefty mid-rotation build and repertoire. He simply needs to return healthy and comfortable in his delivery to get there. No need to hold him in a dynasty at this point, but he should be high on watch lists coming into 2024.
Mitchell Parker, SP, Washington Nationals
Parker was the rare player who was drafted three times -- first by the Cubs in the 28th round of the 2018 draft out of high school in New Mexico. After, it was by the Rays after his first season of JuCo in the 27th round in 2019 before he finally signed with the Nationals after being drafted in the fifth round in 2020.
With no 2020 season due to the pandemic, Parker made his pro debut in 2021. He was pitching across both A-ball levels, striking out 144 in 101 2/3 innings. The lefty then had a very strong season in High-A, pitching to a 2.88 ERA and 117 strikeouts over 100 innings.
Parker's high arm slot allows his rising low-90s fastball to play up. He pairs that with a trio of average-ish pitches, using a downer curve and a nasty splitter as well as a fringe-average change. While his pitches are average, they have enough movement that they can land out of the zone. That has been Parker's biggest bugaboo in Double-A this season as he's struck out 132 over 113 2/3 innings.
VERDICT: If Parker can repeat his delivery consistently, he has the stuff from the left side to be a strong backend starter. He could be a strong setup guy from the left side if the Nats choose to move him to the bullpen. Neither role is worth using a dynasty spot at this point.
Paul Gervase, RP, New York Mets
The Mets drafted the towering (6'10") righty from Louisiana State in the 12th round of the 2022 draft. He was coming off a season for the Tigers where he made 29 appearances out of the bullpen, striking out 52 over 39 innings and posting a 1.85 ERA. Gervase then went to the Cape Cod League before the draft, striking out 18 over 11 1/3 relief innings with a 1.59 ERA.
Due to his height and extension, Gervase's low-90s fastball really jumps on hitters. He pitches roughly 80% fastballs, altering the shape of the pitch to give it a different look. He mixes in a fringe-average low-80s slider as his "off-speed" pitch.
After working up to Single-A in his pro debut last summer, Gervase has pitched across High-A and Double-A this season. Combined, he's made 37 appearances, tossing 55 innings with a 2.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and striking out 37% of hitters. He has struggled with his control at times, walking just short of 17% of batters.
VERDICT: The Mets certainly learned this season the value of a dominant reliever at the back of the bullpen. While Gervase could potentially get there someday, he's not there yet. He shouldn't be held in a dynasty league until he's made a big league bullpen.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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