Finding Wide Receiver Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Looking at Vacated Air Yards

August 26, 2023

Mitch uses vacated air yards and targets to look for fantasy football WR breakouts and draft sleepers. Which wide receivers have breakout upside for 2023?

Every year, wide receivers across the NFL change teams, which opens up new opportunities for new pass catchers on those old teams. One way to find breakouts at WR is to look for teams with new target opportunities available. Targets are one metric, but another metric that is underutilized by most fans, and perhaps even more useful is vacated air yards.

The air yards stat shows how far a ball travels in the air before it is caught. It eliminates some of the volatility with yards after catch. No statistic is perfect, and looking at vacated air yards also has its problems. The change of a quarterback could alter how many air yards should be expected, and new coaches can also change a team's scheme.

All that being said, vacated air yards are one statistic to consider among many when evaluating the wide receiver position in fantasy football. Here are six receivers who have a good chance to break out with the new target opportunities available.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

There was never much doubt about Christian Watson's speed and athleticism. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds. He made an impact first as a rusher before he started to become a factor in the passing game. In Week 4, he ran for a 15-yard touchdown in a 27-24 victory over the New England Patriots. Throughout the season, Watson gained 80 yards on the ground and scored two touchdowns on seven carries.

However, Watson didn't become a consistent presence as a starting wide receiver until Week 9, when he was on the field for 12 passing plays. For the rest of the season, he had at least 18 receiving opportunities in each game. He had three 100-yard games in that span as well. Watson did have some problems with drops, but from Week 13 on, he didn't drop a single pass. Whether that means he improved or not is kind of irrelevant; drop rate is not correlated at all with fantasy success.

What does matter more than drop rate is available targets and air yards. After Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb followed Aaron Rodgers to New York, Green Bay ranks second in both vacated air yards and targets. That won't matter if Jordan Love can't get the ball to Watson, but Love has looked great in preseason. He is firing darts to his receivers in stride. And Love was already setting up Watson to make plays when he played last season.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen played nine years with the Vikings, receiving over 100 targets four times, including last season. Now he's gone to Carolina and the Vikings drafted 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award-winner Jordan Addison (Pitt and USC).

The Vikings only "lost" 1,163 air yards, which puts them near the middle of the pack. However, 199 receptions are vacated, the ninth-most in the league. That is because Thielen was used as a possession receiver with a low depth of target which decreased throughout his career.

Addison had a low depth of target in college, too. In college, he averaged about as many yards per reception as Thielen did throughout his Vikings career. Nearly 60% of Addison's targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Addison also has the ability to go deep and, especially given his age, he should be an upgrade over Thielen.

Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Here is an example where air yards and targets might not be the most predictive statistics to employ in your draft. Yet, I still think Michael Wilson could have a breakout, although the possibility is less likely than the others on this list.

The Cardinals cut DeAndre Hopkins, who had 96 targets last season. Marquise Brown will be the WR1 by a large margin in a poor passing offense. Colt McCoy will start the season under center due to Kyler Murray's injury. Even if McCoy throws a lot of passes, as the Cardinals will be trailing often, he won't complete as many of them or for as many air yards as Murray could at his best. There will still be opportunities to be had in deeper leagues.

Rondale Moore figures to be the WR2, and he mostly plays the slot, which is where Greg Dortch played during his mini-breakout last season. Dortch's value plummeted when Moore got healthy and returned to the lineup, so he's out of the picture. The Cardinals still need another outside receiver on the opposite side of Brown.

Third-round draft pick Michael Wilson is the wild card. Wilson is 6'2"s, 213 lbs, and is the most prototypical possession receiver of any rookie. He gained over 600 yards in his sophomore year at Stanford in 2019. Making an impact at a young age is a good sign for receivers.

However, he was injured in the following seasons and hasn't played a full year since then. According to the Draft Network, "combined with his size/frame and play strength, Wilson can make things happen after the catch." Wilson is going on average in the 23rd round. His ADP has been rising from the 26th round, where it was in June.

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions

D.J. Chark departed the Lions for the Panthers, T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings in the middle of the season, and Jameson Williams has been suspended for the first six games of the year. Even without accounting for Williams, the Lions rank fourth in vacated targets. Enter Marvin Jones.

The 33-year-old Jones played for the Lions from 2016-2020, during which time he was targeted over 100 times twice and gained 1,101 yards once. As recently as 2021, he was targeted 120 times, and he was just 22 yards shy of another 1,000-yard season in 2020. Jones has massive upside in a pass-first Lions offense, and his ADP is only WR169, which is a late 24th-round pick.

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys

The highly-touted Jalen Tolbert didn't produce his rookie year despite receiving much preseason hype last year. Now he's getting preseason hype again! Cowboys  head coach Mike McCarthy says Tolbert's confidence "just jumps off the field." D Magazine says he "made the play of Cowboys training camp." He "looks like a different person."

Are you willing to give him a chance again? The Cowboys rank ninth in vacated air yards and 10th in vacated targets. They have Brandin Cooks coming in, so he will be the WR2 alongside CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup was disappointing last season, too, so Tolbert has an opportunity to push for snaps in three WR sets.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Last season, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr couldn't do much but hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs and throw passes up to Davante Adams. Hunter Renfrow disappeared, catching just one pass in Week 7 and not playing at all from Weeks 10-14. Mack Hollins was Vegas' second-best wide receiver.

The Raiders gave Meyers one of the largest contracts of free agency this offseason. Meyers gained 804 yards last year and scored six touchdowns in New England. Now Vegas has Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and is basically running the old New England offense! Vegas ranks third in vacated air yards and Meyers has a good opportunity and little competition for playing time.

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