Noelvi Marte: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

August 22, 2023

Is Noelvi Marte a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks' deep dive into Marte's 2023 fantasy value.

It's hard to believe that shortstop was a weakness for the Cincinnati Reds coming into the season. Granted, nothing good is going to happen when Kevin Newman is Plan A and a bounceback from Jose Barrero is Plan B. Both of those plans predictably failed, but Plans C and D have been great.

First, Matt McLain received a big league callup and exceeded expectations. If he's not on your roster, you could have read about him here first. Next, Elly De La Cruz electrified baseball fans around the country with his unmatched tools. Now, the Reds are turning to a third young shortstop in Noelvi Marte.

Marte is 21 and the 24th-ranked prospect in the game per MLB Pipeline, but he's also a polarizing figure in the prospect community. Some see elite upside, while others see him more as a solid regular. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, and he has a good chance of making an immediate fantasy impact. Let's take a closer look.

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No Scouting Consensus on Noelvi Marte

Noelvi Marte's scouting report is often described as "high variance" because there is no consensus on his raw tools. For our purposes, MLB Pipeline will represent scouts who are high on Marte's potential while FanGraphs will be the more conservative estimation.

MLB Pipeline gives Marte a 50-grade hit tool, 60-grade pop, and 55-grade wheels, creating a five-tool package with "superstar" written all over it. His scouting report further notes that "there are few prospects with more raw power than Marte," hinting at massive power potential that could take his profile to another level. The Reds' system is loaded, and Marte is still the best prospect in it.

FanGraphs disagrees. They see a 35-hit tool (50 in time), 30 game power (50), and 40 speed. His 60 raw power is expected to increase to 65 in the future but becomes irrelevant if Marte cannot access it in games. As a result, Marte is only fifth in Cincinnati's system and 71st overall.

Scouting is more art than science, and we shouldn't believe that one assessment is better than the other. Instead, we should look at his performance and see what his production might tell us about his raw tools.

The Fantasy-Friendly Production of Noelvi Marte

Marte is young, but it's fair to say he had a grueling 2022. First, he played winter ball. Then, he played a full minor league season that included switching organizations as a headline prospect in the Luis Castillo trade. With that done, he went to Germany to represent Team Spain in a WBC qualifier and then participated in the Arizona Fall League. He didn't look good in the AFL, but he was running on fumes by that point.

Marte was also very young for every level he's ever played in. This means that he has a built-in excuse for any unfavorable statistics. Despite that, his High Minors debut went quite well this year. He started the year at Double-A (Chattanooga), slashing .281/.356/.464 with eight homers and 10 steals in 222 PAs. His plate discipline was solid with a 9.9 BB% and 17.1 K% backed by a 10.9 SwStr%. His .309 BABIP looked completely reasonable.

Marte's 16% HR/FB hinted at the power potential mentioned in some scouting reports, but his 32.7 FB% was too low to take full advantage of it. On the bright side, he was only caught stealing twice for a success rate of about 83%.

The performance earned Marte a trip to Triple-A (Louisville), where he put up a virtually-identical line of .280/.365/.455 with three homers and eight steals across 167 PAs. His plate discipline improved to a 12 BB% and 18.6 K%, while his 11.4 SwStr% effectively remained unchanged despite more advanced competition. His .330 BABIP might look a little inflated, but the reason behind it is simple.

At Double-A, Marte posted a league-average 21.1 LD%. At Triple-A, it increased to 30.1%. He lost points in both FB% (28.3) and HR/FB (9.4), but the increased line drive rate meant he was elevating more total balls. Some of those liners will probably turn into flies moving forward, giving Marte more opportunities to take advantage of his raw power.

Marte was only caught stealing twice, giving him a success rate of 80%. He made his MLB debut as a pinch runner and successfully stole a base, so fantasy managers can count on his running game down the stretch.

All told, Marte has solid contact skills, good strike zone judgment, and above-average raw pop and speed. He understands how to steal a base and could be a minor swing adjustment away from unlocking huge power, giving him tantalizing upside.

Will Noelvi Marte Play?

Fantasy managers need players who play, and it's not hard to see an impending logjam in the Reds' infield. The team has committed to playing Marte every day at third base while Jonathan India is out with a foot injury. However, India's return will leave the team with two spots for Marte, McLain, and de la Cruz. In the short term, this is good as Marte will add 3B eligibility to the SS qualification he already carries in most leagues.

Once India comes back, there are two paths to keeping Marte in the lineup. India was on the trade block before the deadline, and he is now questioning how the team handled his injury. If the player and team have soured on each other, the Reds may bring India back in a bench role.

The better option is probably demoting Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Encarnacion-Strand's 1B-only defense and Joey Votto's presence on the roster force him to DH. He's on a full-season pace for 15 HR as a power-first bat and -0.1 fWAR, so it's not like he has to play. A lineup with Marte, McLain, de la Cruz, India, and Votto is likely better than any configuration with Encarnacion-Strand.

The Verdict on Noelvi Marte

Marte might not hit for power right away, but his contact skills and plate discipline should give him a solid floor. He should also steal a few bases, and no one on waivers this late in the season offers his upside. Marte is a Champ who should be rostered in a lot more than 12% of leagues.

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