RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose ERA-xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 21.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.
We are nearing the end of the season and I have yet to take a look at pitchers' arsenals specifically. The two major components of pitches are velocity and movement. I could spend a whole portion of this series focusing on specific pitches. For this week, I am going to highlight some pitchers' specific pitches with high and low spin rates. Spin rates are measured in rotations per minute (RPM).
Generally speaking (but not always the case as we will see), the more spin a pitch has, the more actual or perceived movement it generates. This can allow pitchers to miss more bats or generate weak contact. At this point in the season, fantasy managers need pitchers who can turn in solid outputs more than ever. To that end, let's identify some pitchers who have particularly interesting pitches to offer!
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Spin Rate Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 13, 2023.
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins (Four-Seam Fastball)
5-4, 2.79 ERA, Spin Rate: 2,640 RPM
Eury Perez has been one of fantasy's most hyped young starters and for good reason. The 20-year-old has made 12 big-league starts, going 5-4 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate. One of the reasons behind his success is his 97.6 mph four-seam fastball, which has a 2,640 RPM spin rate. Few pitchers have generated more spin on their fastball; how has this helped him?
Coincidentally, Perez's fastball has been his least successful pitch. He throws the pitch harder and with more spin than almost any other pitcher, but he has allowed a .313 batting average and .657 slugging percentage with the pitch while managing just a 6.0% swinging-strike rate. He does rely on a four-pitch mix and his other pitches have gotten great results. Perhaps it has to do with when he throws his pitches, but hitters have had his number on the fastball.
If nothing else, his fastball has set up his other pitches for success. His slider, curveball, and changeup have respective swinging-strike rates of 22.6%, 22.7%, and 18.1%. His slider has been his main secondary pitch, but he has thrown his curveball and changeup between 10.9% and 12.9%.
Perez's fastball is one of the better ones in the game, yet his results have not indicated that. The rookie has little professional experience and has still gotten excellent results overall. He has plenty of time to learn how to effectively pitch with his fastball in addition to his strong secondary pitches.
He certainly has room to shape himself into a complete pitcher, but his raw stuff has gotten excellent results either way overall. As such, he is worth starting in fantasy as long as he remains in the starting rotation.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (Slider)
8-2, 2.92 ERA, Spin Rate: 2,802 RPM
Like Perez, Tanner Bibee has burst onto the scene as a top fantasy prospect. The 24-year-old is one of several young, exciting pitchers in the Guardians rotation. He has compiled an 8-2 record with a 2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 23.8% strikeout rate through 18 starts. Bibee's slider and its 2,802 RPM will be highlighted here. Has his slider been more effective than Perez's fastball?
While not as electric, Bibee has presented as more of a complete pitcher than Perez to this point. His arsenal isn't overpowering like Perez's, but his four-pitch mix has yielded more consistent results. A quick glance over his Statcast profile shows that hitters have not been able to expose many holes in his game.
Not surprisingly, Bibee's slider has been one of his best pitches. His high spin rate has led to above-average breaks on both planes, particularly horizontally. His 10.6 inches of horizontal run is 105% more than the league average. This has led to a 13.6% swinging-strike rate and a .200 batting average against.
Overall, Bibee has been a high-floor fantasy starter in his first season. He has successfully implemented a four-pitch mix while averaging about 5 2/3 innings per start. He has gotten good results with all of his pitches, his slider being the best. Bibee appears to be a solid and safe fantasy starter for the rest of the season.
Spin Rate Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 13, 2023.
Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers (Changeup)
11-4, 3.88 ERA, Spin Rate: 1,374 RPM
Max Scherzer has been a top-notch fantasy option throughout his career, but this season has not gone as well as many had hoped. His 3.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 27.4% strikeout rate are good overall but are not reflective of what he has turned in for the majority of his career. One strong aspect of his game is his changeup despite a low spin rate. How has this factored into his season?
Scherzer's changeup has been so effective because its lack of spin gives it only a league-average break. This is effective because the pitch ends up coming in looking like his fastball but is 10 mph slower. Scherzer does a very good job replicating his delivery for both pitches, making it a deceptive change from the hitter's perspective.
Scherzer's issues haven't been with his changeup but with his slider. He has only thrown the pitch 17.6% of the time but has allowed nine HR on the pitch compared to none last season. Scherzer has been able to pinpoint his changeup location low and away to lefties consistently, but his slider leaked into the middle of the plate.
The veteran has always relied primarily on his four-seamer, followed by his slider. His changeup has been the better pitch this season thanks to its deceptive nature. Fantasy managers certainly aren't going to shy away from Scherzer for the rest of the season, but he may not be able to pitch to his standards if he continues to leave his slider in the middle of the plate.
James Paxton, Boston Red Sox (Curveball)
7-3, 3.36 ERA, Spin Rate: 1,927 RPM
James Paxton has put together a solid first season with the Red Sox, going 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 27.4% strikeout rate in 15 starts. His curveball is his main breaking pitch despite having a spin rate in the bottom one percent of the league. How has he benefitted from this?
Paxton relies mainly on a four-seamer and a cutter, with his curveball acting as his main breaking pitch. The pitch has much less horizontal break compared to the league average, but it is still effective because it moves differently compared to his other pitches.
It has the most drop of any of his pitches and he has kept it down in the zone. Consequently, he has allowed a .227 batting average against with a four-degree launch angle and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate.
The only thing that has prevented Paxton from being a perennial fantasy asset is injuries. Now back and healthy, there is no reason to think that he cannot provide the value he once did for fantasy managers. His pitch mix and curveball have always served him well, which should continue for the rest of the season.
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