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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 30, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing eight-game matinee mix on DraftKings and a nine-game set on FanDuel, including the Coors game. There might be some weather spots to watch today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/30/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. DET ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD)
Jesus Luzardo is expensive today, but he's worth the price of entry. He carries a strong 3.57 xERA and 3.44 xFIP through 21 starts this season. That includes a .295 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and a 6.5% walk rate. The best part of Luzardo's arsenal is his high strikeout floor. He sports a fantastic 29.6% strikeout rate, complemented by his 31.4% whiff rate. Luzardo is fresh off a 13-strikeout performance against the Rockies and has punched out at least eight batters in five of his past six appearances.
The Tigers present an advantageous matchup for Luzardo. Detroit doesn't bring the same deadbeat offense that plagued them for most of the first half. But they still aren't very good, scoring just 3.9 runs per game. The Tigers hold a weak 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, including a .696 OPS and .304 wOBA. Their best bats are mostly left-handed, namely Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. That's good news for Luzardo, who has limited lefty bats to just a .188 batting average and one home run this season.
Luzardo has accrued at least 28.7 DK points in five of his past six starts, and I don't expect anything different today. He's the best combination of floor and ceiling today.
Kenta Maeda, MIN vs. KC ($8,500 DK, $9,900 FD)
There are several premium arms worth considering today. Though with cost as a consideration, Kenta Maeda is my preferred SP2. Through 10 starts this season, he boasts a strong 3.76 xERA and 3.83 xFIP. That includes a .302 xwOBA, .237 xBA, and a 7% walk rate.
He's certainly capable of surrendering some power, as evidenced by his .407 xSLG and 47.1% hard-hit rate, but that's why there's a discount. Maeda offers a great ceiling, thanks to his 28.9% strikeout rate and 30.5% whiff rate. He's generated at least eight strikeouts in three of his past four outings.
The Royals are pretty much the best matchup Maeda could hope for. They score 3.7 runs per game on the season. They're also exceptionally bad against right-handed pitchers, carrying a league-worst 78 wRC+, .662 OPS, and 24.1% strikeout rate. Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., there's not much danger in the Kansas City lineup for Maeda to navigate. These are ideal conditions for a strong Maeda outing at an affordable price.
Also consider: Justin Verlander, Aaron Civale
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Colin Rea ($6,400 DK, $4,300 FD)
It feels like I highlight Matt Olson every time, but he just keeps producing. He's up to a .256/.360/.569 slash line with an NL-leading 33 home runs. That includes some truly phenomenal numbers, like a .560 xSLG, .390 xwOBA, 57.5% hard-hit rate, 95 mph average exit velocity, and 18.7% barrel rate. Olson strikes out a lot, but you're reaching if you harp on the negatives here.
Colin Rea isn't a particularly good pitcher. The 33-year-old sports a 4.14 xERA and 4.49 xFIP through 18 appearances this season. Notably, left-handed hitters are slugging .500 against Rea with 10 home runs and a .352 wOBA. Nobody in this Atlanta lineup is off-limits in this matchup, but Olson stands out above the rest.
Brandon Lowe – 2B, TB vs. Brandon Bielak ($4,300 DK, $3,100 FD)
It's been a somewhat down season for Brandon Lowe, carrying a .739 OPS with 12 home runs through 69 games. Still, he remains a competent hitter against right-handed pitching, slugging .457 against them this season. That's down from a .497 career mark with a .845 OPS.
Brandon Bielak has been a lot worse than his 3.62 ERA tells us. He sports an atrocious 5.46 xERA and 4.82 xFIP through 13 appearances this season. That consists of some horrible underlying numbers, like a .466 xSLG, 48.4% hard-hit rate, 10.8% barrel rate, .268 xBA, .357 xwOBA, and a 90.4 mph average exit velocity. Bielak is a prime candidate for regression.
Abraham Toro – 1B/3B, MIL vs. AJ Smith-Shawver ($2,800 DK, $2,600 FD)
For near-minimum pricing, I think it's worth seeking out a hot hand. Since being called back up, Abraham Toro has hit safely in both appearances, including a three-hit performance with a home run on Friday. He'd also been tearing it up with Triple-A Nashville, hitting .337 with 19 extra-base hits over 27 games since Toro was last demoted.
AJ Smith-Shawver is a well-regarded prospect for the Braves. There's plenty of upside in his future, but it's been a bit of a struggle thus far in the majors. Through four major-league appearances, left-handed batters are slugging .594 against him with a .403 wOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kyle Tucker – OF, HOU vs. Zack Littell ($5,800 DK, $3,600 FD)
Kyle Tucker is on a tear this season. He's slashing .304/.386/.518 with 18 home runs and 19 stolen bases. That includes a .302 xBA, .534 xSLG, .395 xwOBA, 49.85 hard-hit rate, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 13% strikeout rate, and 11.85 walk rate.
It looks like bullpen day for Tampa Bay, but Zack Littell will get the first nod. He's surrendered a .458 xSLG, 53.8% hard-hit rate, and 10.3% barrel rate. Lefties are slugging .471 against Littell this season, and .453 against him in his career.
Brandon Nimmo – OF, NYM vs. Trevor Williams ($4,400 DK, $3,400 FD)
Brandon Nimmo is having a great season, slashing .256/.352/.433 with 15 home runs and a 123 wRC+. That includes a career-best .448 xSLG, alongside a .354 xwOBA, 47.8% hard-hit rate, and 91.8 mph average exit velocity. All 15 of Nimmo's home runs have come against right-handed pitching, with a .463 slugging percentage.
Trevor Williams is very hittable this season, sporting a 5.15 xERA and 5.04 xFIP. He carries an awful .478 xSLG, .276 xBA, .348 xwOBA, 9.8% barrel rate, and 16.8% strikeout rate. Left-handed batters are slugging .489 against Williams this season and .451 for his career.
Will Brennan – OF, CLE vs. Michael Kopech ($2,600 DK, $2,600 FD)
Will Brennan is enjoying a solid campaign. He carries a fantastic .292 xBA and only strikes out at a 13.4% rate. Brennan doesn't offer a ton in the way of power, but he is slugging .414 against right-handed pitching, including five home runs. Near the minimum price, he's the most reliable option you'll find among outfielders.
Michael Kopech is closer to batting practice these days. He sports a 5.50 xERA and 5.21 xFIP through 19 starts this season. That includes a .459 xSLG, 14.6% barrel rate, 42.5% hard-hit rate, and 90.4 mph average exit velocity.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brandon Bielak
The Rays have slumped recently, but they still remain one of the more potent offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay boasts a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, including a .769 OPS and .333 wOBA. They score 5.2 runs per game on the season behind big-name bats like Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. The Rays are an accessible stack with bats across various price points.
Brandon Bielak has overperformed in 2023. He sports an atrocious 5.46 xERA and 4.82 xFIP through 13 appearances this season. That consists of some horrible underlying numbers, like a .466 xSLG, 48.4% hard-hit rate, 10.8% barrel rate, .268 xBA, .357 xwOBA, and a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity. Bielak is a prime candidate for regression, and this Tampa Bay lineup can certainly take advantage of that.
Favorite Plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe
Atlanta Braves vs. Colin Rea
The Braves are debatably the league's best offense. They score 5.6 runs per game on the season. That includes a .116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .811 OPS and .348 wOBA. Atlanta's lineup is absolutely loaded, and stacking them will come at a steep price. If you can get there, it'll be worthwhile.
Colin Rea isn't an awful pitcher, but he isn't equipped to slow down the Braves. The 33-year-old sports a 4.14 xERA and 4.49 xFIP through 18 appearances this season. That includes a .419 xSLG, 42.6% hard-hit rate, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, and .419 xSLG. There are more vulnerable pitchers on this slate, but it's difficult to get away from the Braves these days. I don't see Milwaukee keeping them quiet in this spot.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy
Also Consider: New York Mets, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
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