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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 18. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 18. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
Let's get to the picks for Week 18!
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia has flat-out been one of the best hitters in baseball this season and there is no denying that. Since his first season with the Rangers, Garcia has been one of the league's premier power threats and has continued improving yearly. Everyone knows he has power, but Garcia had issues with plate discipline early on.
In 2021, the slugger had his first proper season, with a strikeout rate of 31.2% to go with just a 5.1% walk rate. In 2022, Garcia improved his plate discipline to a 27.9% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. This season, the 30-year-old has a 24.7% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate. Garcia has been improving in multiple aspects of his game, including adjusting his approach year to year. Since 2021, the slugger has steadily decreased his ground ball rate and increased his HardHit%.
In 2023, the Rangers outfielder has shown everyone that he has the potential to keep getting better. With career-best numbers across several important categories, Garcia appears to be breaking out big this year. The slugger's expected stats also show that this year is no fluke, and he is genuinely earning the production. I see no reason why Garcia cannot continue this production for years to come.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz has been an exciting player to analyze for a long time. Diaz has always been a player who consistently hits the ball hard but puts it on the ground too often. To begin this season, it appeared that Diaz had started hitting fewer ground balls, but that percentage has since returned. Despite his 52.6% ground ball rate, there are many reasons to be encouraged about the 31-year-old this year.
The Rays' first baseman has been displaying his power with an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph, which ranks in the 99th percentile and is the highest career mark. Diaz also has career-highs in max exit velocity, HardHit%, wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+. The veteran slugger is amid his most productive season, and nothing is stopping him from reaching a new career-high in home runs and RBI this season.
Fantasy managers who drafted or picked up Diaz early in the year must be happy with his production level this season. Diaz did have a 34-game stretch without a home run, but he has since put that behind him and hit two home runs in the past two weeks while also hitting for average.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondback outfielder Corbin Carroll was on a tear before the All-Star break and has been the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year award for much of the season. Carroll rose quickly but has proven he has more than enough skills to compete at the highest level. In 2022, the young outfielder competed across four levels of professional baseball before spending 32 games with the Diamondbacks. Carroll's rookie debut was not picture-perfect, but it did lay the foundation for this season.
Through 98 games, Carroll is slashing .288/.365/.556 with 21 home runs, 57 RBI, and 30 stolen bases. If the season were to end today, the 22-year-old would have put up one of the most impressive rookie seasons of all time, but he still has the entire second half to make those numbers look even better.
Carroll's strikeout rate is 20.5%, which would be the lowest of his career. With 99th percentile sprint speed and 90th percentile max exit velocity, Carroll figures to be a power-speed threat for many years to come. Fantasy managers who drafted the young speedster enjoy a great investment return.
Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies infielder Bryson Stott is the only player on this list who isn't a star in the league, but we may not be able to say that for long. The 25-year-old is slashing .300/.342/.430 with nine home runs, 37 RBI, and 19 stolen bases through 96 games this season. The young infielder is achieving this production while only striking out 15.6% and walking 5.9% of the time. While the walk rate could stand to increase, the strikeout rate would be the lowest in his professional career.
To hit for average and strike out less than 16% of the time, you would have to make a ton of contact, and Stott does. The young slugger owns a Contact% of 86.3% and a Z-Contact% of 89.4%, among the best in the league. To put those numbers into context, Stott makes contact at a higher clip than Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. That level of bat-to-ball skills is an incredible talent, and he also thrives in clutch situations.
Stott ranked 39th among qualified hitters in clutch factor. The Phillies infielder also has the fourth-highest batting average with two strikes in the NL. On Tuesday, Stott drove in the tying run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. The young slugger still needs to be a complete hitter, and his quality of contact metrics could improve, but he makes a lot of contact. Stott is likely rostered in most competitive leagues, but fantasy managers in shallower home leagues should look to acquire him if he is available.
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