Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Brady Singer and Seth Lugo

July 26, 2023

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 18, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got two interesting right-handers to break down this week. First, we'll look at Brady Singer's nine-strikeout performance against the Yankees on Saturday. Then, we'll take a look at Seth Lugo's quiet consistency with another strong outing against the Tigers.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 07/24/2023.

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals – 35% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 102.2 IP, 5.70 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%

07/22 @ NYY: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

The music flowed from Singer as he carved up the Yankees lineup on Saturday, posting a season-high nine strikeouts in the Bronx. Singer has been pitching better as of late, with a 3.66 ERA over his last five starts. Singer posted a 3.23 ERA and 18.5% K-BB% in 27 appearances last season, and fantasy players must wonder; has Singer put things together after a rough start, or is his recent success not to be trusted?

Originally taken by Kansas City in the first round of the 2018 MLB draft, Singer is one of many promising young college arms to emerge from the Royals’ organization and struggle in recent years. Unlike many of his peers, Singer has shown flashes of greater potential as a major league starter but hasn’t been able to consistently deliver on the mound. Part of the reason for this volatility could be Singer’s limited repertoire. Singer uses a three-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, a slider, and a changeup, though the changeup is more of a show-me pitch as Singer uses his sinker and slider a combined 94.1% of the time, making him essentially a two-pitch starter.

Singer slings sliders down by the seashore. Seriously, it’s all about the sliders for Singer, whose 41.8% slider usage rate is the highest among qualified starters. Averaging 84.2 MPH, Singer has a traditional slider with average drop and spin, and slightly above-average horizontal movement, making it especially effective against right-handed hitters. The slider was Singer’s best pitch in this start, as he earned 10 of his 14 whiffs with his slider.

That’s about what we’d expect; if Singer is pitching well, it’s because his slider is working. What stands out is how poorly his slider has performed from a season-long perspective. Singer has career worsts across the board with this pitch, including a .265 BA, .450 SLG, and .329 wOBA against it this season. It’s almost eerie how much Singer’s actual results align with Statcast expected numbers here, as Singer has a .267 xBA, .434 xSLG, and .333 xwOBA with his slider thus far.

While not disastrous, the results on Singer’s slider have been notably worse than in previous seasons, and there appear to be several causes. First, Singer has been getting unlucky, both with his slider and in general. He has a .315 BABIP on his slider, a .333 BABIP, and a 64.8% LOB rate overall. His 4.19 FIP, while still a career-high, is still a full run lower than his 5.55 ERA. While Singer’s issues should not be completely chalked up to bad luck, luck has certainly played a role in his struggles.

Second, Singer has suffered from inconsistent mechanics this season. Singer’s mechanics have always been a little unorthodox, but he appears to be struggling to keep his mechanics cohesive from pitch to pitch or game to game. He blamed a bad start from earlier this season on mechanics, and he’s added 0.3 inches to his extension this season. He was also tinkering with his slider grip earlier this season, citing his poor performance in previous starts. Mechanical issues will unravel any pitcher, and it’s especially tough in Singer’s case given his limited repertoire. If his mechanics are off for one pitch, he doesn’t have much to fall back on.

Third, Singer’s fastball has performed significantly worse this season compared to the past. Opponents have a .310 BA, .505 SLG, and .375 wOBA against Singer’s sinker. Batters are pulverizing this pitch for a 92.4 MPH average exit velocity and 25.3% line drive rate. What changed? Singer isn’t challenging hitters as much with his fastball, shying away from high fastballs that go after hitters and instead focusing on keeping the ball down. Here’s a comparison of his fastball heatmap from 2022 (top) and 2023 (bottom).

Singer has changed his approach with his fastball. This can be common for pitchers when they don’t trust their stuff, or if something is off either physically or mechanically. Singer’s fastball velocity is down a full MPH this season at 92.4 MPH on average, and perhaps this velocity loss combined with inconsistent mechanics is causing him to lose confidence. The problem is, it’s not clear that fixing these issues resulted in Singer’s good performance against the Yankees.

His velocity was the same, his spin rate didn’t change, and he used either his sinker or slider 91% of the time. Singer is more talented than his 5.55 ERA would suggest, but if he’s not doing anything differently, why should we expect drastically different results over the long term?

Two-pitch pitchers are volatile by nature. There’s a reason the likes of Chris Archer and Dinelson Lamet burn out so quickly. Sure, Spencer Strider is incredible, but Singer’s raw stuff is nowhere near as good as Strider’s.  For many pitchers, it’s either develop a third pitch or move to the bullpen. Singer isn’t quite bullpen material yet, but he will need to develop his changeup or learn another pitch to help him succeed as a starter. He needs to do that regardless of the potential issues he’s having with his mechanics and velocity drop. There’s talent here, but Singer could also drop a nuke on your weekly ratios with any given start.

Verdict:

It’s the same old tune from Singer, but this time with a twist. He does have a limited repertoire, making him overly reliant on two pitches and capping his overall upside, but that’s not exactly news to anyone familiar with Singer. Singer’s sinker-slider combo has been his bread and butter since he debuted. This time, Singer is also dealing with reduced velocity and poor fastball location, perhaps a symptom of a bigger problem.

Between Singer’s public comments to the media and the 0.3 extra inches on his extension, it seems possible that he’s been dealing with mechanical issues at points in the season. Singer has the raw talent to pitch better, but he doesn’t seem to be in a position to realize that talent right now. He is going to be practically unpredictable on a start-by-start basis, and for that reason, Singer is only viable in desperate streaming situations.

Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres – 35% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 69 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 17.7% K-BB%

07/21 @ DET: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

Lugo had a nice bounce-back outing on Friday, holding Detroit to two runs and notching the quality start while picking up his fourth win of the season. Lugo pulled himself together after giving up five runs to Philadelphia in his previous start and now has a 3.72 ERA on the season. There have been plenty of disappointments for San Diego this season, but Lugo has been a pleasant surprise for the Friars. Still, he hasn’t gotten much attention in the fantasy community despite his on-field success. Have fantasy players been right to ignore him, or is there something here with Lugo?

Selected 1,032^nd overall by the Mets in the 2011 MLB draft, Lugo wasn’t a huge prospect as a minor leaguer. It wasn’t until he debuted with a 2.67 ERA in 2016 that Lugo garnered attention outside the Mets bubble. Lugo’s superb control and deep five-pitch arsenal gave him the look of a starter, though his curveball is what made him stand out. At 3,246 RPM, no pitcher in MLB can throw a curveball with more spin than Seth Lugo. Lugo’s curveball has always been his best pitch, and it’s been a big piece of his success this season as well.

Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time this season, a career-high. It's the continuation of a trend that began two years ago when Lugo’s curveball usage spiked. I already referenced the curveball’s exceptional spin, but Lugo also has great vertical movement with this pitch. In a sense, it’s a traditional curveball brought to its extremes. It’s an interesting pitch to analyze, but is it actually good?

Batters have a solid average against Lugo’s curveball at .298, but little power with a .365 SLG and .304 wOBA. Lugo’s curveball isn’t a big strikeout pitch but holds its own with an 11.3% swinging strike rate and 27.7% chase rate. Where the pitch excels is in keeping the ball down. It shouldn’t be surprising that a high-spin, high-drop curveball produces groundballs, but it is great to see from Lugo.

Opponents are sending the pitch directly into the dirt with an incredible -3-degree average launch angle against, and a 60% groundball rate with the pitch. Lugo also has his lowest home run rate since 2019 with a 1.08 HR/9, and his 46.2% groundball rate is 2% better than his career mark. It’s not sexy, but Lugo does a great job limiting offense with his curveball.

What about outside the curve? Lugo has been defined by the pitch for his entire career (thanks Statcast), but he does have four other pitches at his disposal. Lugo also uses a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He has gotten strong results with both of his fastballs thus far, surrendering a .252 BA with the four-seamer, and a .218 BA with the sinker.

While Lugo has the highest spin rate of anyone on his curveball, he’s middle of the road when it comes to his fastball. His velocity, while also middle of the road, has been more impressive this season considering Lugo hadn’t started an MLB game since 2020. His 93.5 MPH average four-seam velocity is over 2 MPH higher than his velocity was back on his initial attempt to be a starter with the Mets. Lugo can also routinely touch 95-96 MPH in a start, which was a rarity for him when he first debuted.

If a 100th-percentile curveball and improved fastball velocity weren’t enough, Lugo has also begun incorporating his changeup more often this season to some success. He primarily uses the pitch against lefties, but opponents have a .250 AVG with a 23.1% swinging strike rate against the changeup this season. It’s not the centerpiece of his game, but Lugo’s changeup looks like a great complementary weapon to go along with his fastballs and curveball. His slider (.353 BA against) is the only big liability in this repertoire, and despite issuing three walks in this start, Lugo has a stellar 5.1% walk rate on the year. He’s not the young exciting prospect we fantasy players lose our minds over, but there’s plenty to like in Lugo’s game.

Verdict:

Turns out, perhaps Seth Lugo could’ve been a starter this whole time. Lugo’s famous high-spin curveball is generating groundballs at an outstanding rate, and he’s using the pitch 34% of the time this season, tied for a career-high. Additionally, Lugo has maintained the velocity he gained upon his initial move to the bullpen, and is firing fastballs in at slightly above league average. He’s displayed strong control throughout the season and rounds out his repertoire with a solid changeup that can consistently fool opposite-handed hitters.

He isn’t exciting, and he’s probably already performing near the top of his capabilities, but Lugo has the makings of a solid back-end starter. His penchant for groundballs, solid control, and home ballpark should prevent disaster starts, and he should have no problem preying on poor lineups like Detroit going forward. Lugo is the rare low-risk waiver wire starter and deserves a roster spot in 12-team leagues.

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