Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Using Pull% to Predict Home Runs

June 27, 2023

Eric looks for 2023 fantasy baseball hitter breakouts. Using pull rate, Eric looks to see if we can predict home run outcomes and find fantasy baseball sleepers and trade targets.

On a recent episode of "Rates and Barrels," Eno Sarris and Derek Van Riper discussed the idea of a pull rate "goldilocks" range where fantasy baseball hitters are pulling enough to make meaningfully hard contact but also not pulling too much to hit fly outs and rollover ground balls. In the discussion, they suggested that somewhere between 30%-40% was the prime range for the pull rate.

Now, they also made it clear that this is not a one-size-fits-all situation. There are players, like Isaac Paredes, who get value because of how much he pulls the ball. Since he doesn't hit the ball overly hard, his pulling the ball allows him to hit for more power than he would otherwise. Similarly, Bo Bichette has lowered his pull rate, which has helped him from rolling over as much, so he shouldn't go back to trying to yank everything.

However, that's real-world stuff. The purpose of this article is to speculate and make predictions, so we're going to use the pull rate over the last 30 days to find hitters who should be in for a home run surge.

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Potential Home Run Improvers for Fantasy Baseball

I took all hitters who had 50 plate appearances over the last 30 days and then sorted them by pull rate. Using the 30-40% range, I removed all hitters who have been pulling the ball more than 40% or below 30%. I then removed all hitters with an OPS over that time under .700 because, for me, that's just an indication of really poor contact.

Lastly, since this is about players who should BEGIN to hit home runs, I removed players like Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Leody Taveras (among many more) who have already been hitting home runs over the last 30 days. In fact, I removed all hitters with more than three home runs over the last 30 days.

What you see below is the 10 hitters I'm going to predict will be in for a home run spike in the coming days based on their pull rate and quality of contact.

Now, I want to make it very clear that this is not based on any in-depth science and/or statistical analysis and is just a fun exercise to see if any sort of pull rate sweet spot might exist or might be able to show us who could be in for hot streaks. You don't have to immediately run out and add these players or trade for them (unless I mention that you should), but maybe we can all watch them a little more closely over the next few weeks.

All stats are as of Friday, June 23

Josh Naylor - 1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians

Last 30 days stats: .402/.434/.557, Two HRs, 14 Runs, 24 RBI

This first one isn't a surprise since you can see from Naylor's stats that he's been hitting the ball extremely well of late. He is making a lot of contact with just a 13.2% strikeout rate while pulling the ball 38.8% of the time with a 10.6% barrel rate. Part of the reason the home runs haven't come is that Naylor has just a 33% fly ball rate, but his launch angle remains over league average and is still within the range where hard-line drives turn into home runs.

Cleveland is generally one of the colder home parks in the spring, so some of Naylor's home run drought might be connected to the ball not carrying as well as when the weather is warm. Given his overall quality of contact, I think Naylor is still a good trade target with a potential home run spike coming.

Nick Castellanos - OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Last 30 days stats: .354/.396/.552, Three HRs, 12 Runs, 17 RBI

Castellanos is another player who is likely rostered everywhere and a hard target to acquire via trade, but I still think some power improvement could be coming. His hard-hit rates continue to spike, and he has a 16% barrel rate over the last 30 days while striking out just 21.7% of the time. His 15.2-degree launch angle over those 30 days is an improvement on his 11.7-degree mark for the season; however, his 32.9% fly ball rate on the season is still a career-low by almost five percent.

Considering Castellanos is hitting the ball as hard as he has in recent seasons and is pulling it as much, we likely just need to see him continue to get back to his past fly ball rates to see the power really come.

Maikel Garcia - 3B, Kansas City Royals

Last 30 days stats: .318/.359/.459, Two HRs, 14 Runs, Eight RBI

Our first player who likely isn't rostered in too many places outside of deep leagues. Garcia is currently fourth among all qualified third basemen in hard-hit rate and also 10th in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. All of that indicates that he makes hard enough contact to be more than just a speed player.

Garcia has a 7.5% barrel rate over the last 30 days and a 37.3% pull rate, which are conducive to power production, but his 5.2-degree launch angle will likely make that hard. As well as hitting in Kauffman Stadium. Still, with just a 20.7% strikeout rate, Garcia will remain a quality fantasy target who could run into a few more home runs if he returns his launch angle to the league-average mark it was during his first three weeks in the big leagues.

Ezequiel Duran - 2B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers

Last 30 days stats: .315/.373/.519, Two HRs, 10 Runs, Seven RBI

Duran has fewer plate appearances than some of the other names on this list due to injury. His 28.8% strikeout rate is a bit problematic, but he has a 13.5% barrel rate and an 18.2-degree launch angle over the last 30 days, which are both conducive to power production.

However, Duran also has a 28.6% infield fly ball rate over the last 30 days, which is not ideal. It's likely a sign that Duran is trying to lift too much and should go back to the lower, league-average launch angle he had in May when he hit five home runs. Still, I'm more than willing to bet on somebody making lots of hard contact. I will keep an eye on that strikeout rate because if it doesn't revert back to his earlier levels, he could be in for a slide.

Will Brennan - OF, Cleveland Guardians

Last 30 days stats: .341/.365/.549, Three HRs, Eight Runs, 10 RBI

Color me surprised that Brennan was on this list. I'm still a little skeptical that he can become a home run bat, but the launch angle increase caught my eye as well.

Brennan's stats over the last 30 days are impressive, and his 15.3% strikeout rate means he's not getting himself out. A 5.8% barrel rate and 10.3-degree launch angle don't often lead to power production, but we're seeing that launch angle trend up.

Brennan has just a 90.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, so he doesn't have a consistent power profile. But if he continues to pull the ball 35% of the time as he ticks the launch angle up, there's a chance he has a hot stretch. I'm not sure I'm ready to call him a home run asset.

Orlando Arcia - SS, Atlanta Braves

Last 30 days stats: .363/.426/.451, Two HRs, 17 Runs, 10 RBI

Arcia has been better than expected as the Braves shortstop for going on two years now. He makes a great amount of contact with just an 18.8% strikeout rate, but I'm finding it hard to see power coming given his 4.2% barrel rate and 6.8-degree launch angle over the last 30 days.

Yes, his 37.5% pull rate means he could get to that power, as Isaac Paredes does, but I feel more inclined to just predict that we aren't going to see a big power boon from Arcia on the horizon.

Matt Vierling - OF, Detroit Tigers

Last 30 days stats: .289/.360/.511, Three HRs, 17 Runs, Five RBI

Vierling was a favorite deep league target of mine coming into the season because he has consistently hit the ball hard and I thought he'd be able to carve out regular playing time with the Tigers this year. So far, the hard-hit data has continued to track in his favor.

Over the last 30 days, he also has just a 16% strikeout rate and a 10.8% barrel rate. When you combine that with the hard-hit rolling graph from above, it seems like a power surge could be coming for Vierling.

Working against him is the non-friendly confines of Comerica Park and his 0.5-degree launch angle over the last month. Considering Vierling had a 12-degree launch angle last year and is at 10.1 degrees on this season, I'm inclined to assume this poor launch angle stretch has more to do with him coming back from injury than anything. I'm still willing to buy in here in deeper formats.

Will Smith - C, Los Angeles Dodgers

Last 30 days stats: .286/.421/.442, Three HRs, Nine Runs, 14 RBI

Smith has 10 home runs on the year and hit five in May, so it would make sense that his two home runs in June are a bit of a cold stretch power-wise that will remedy itself. A big reason for the home runs not being there is his launch angle trending down from the middle of May.

Over the last week, we've seen that launch angle start to trend back up. Pairing Smith having a 7.0% barrel rate and 36.8% pull rate over the last 30 days, I think we'll see some homers start to fly in Los Angeles.

Royce Lewis - SS/3B, Minnesota Twins

Last 30 days stats: .308/.328/.477, Three HRs, Eight Runs, 11 RBI

Part of Lewis' production issues over the last month have been playing time, with Rocco Baldelli failing to give the talented youngster consistent playing time. However, that has changed over the last week, which might suggest the Twins' injuries have finally allowed Lewis to get everyday at-bats.

Posting an 11.1% barrel rate and 40% pull rate over the last month is a good indication that power could be coming, even with his 8.8-degree launch angle; however, my bigger concern would be his 29.9% strikeout rate over that span. In fact, his strikeout rate has been climbing pretty consistently of late.

If he keeps rocking a strikeout rate close to 30% and even above, then it's going to be hard for him to put up the type of offensive numbers that will keep him in the lineup every day.

Even with those strikeout issues, Lewis is the type of talent that I'm willing to bet on. He has natural power, good speed, and has run solid batting averages even with strikeout issues in the minors. Now might be the time to buy low on Lewis if you can.

Christian Arroyo - 2B, Boston Red Sox

Last 30 days stats: .277/.314/.511, Two HRs, Six Runs, Six RBI

We end with one of our longer-shot home run hitters. Arroyo does play in Fenway Park, so his pulling the ball 37.8% of the time over the last month could help him get to home run totals he wouldn't in another stadium. Also working in his favor is a 13.5% barrel rate and 10.2-degree launch angle over the last month.

When you consider that he starts essentially every day and makes good contact with just a 21.6% strikeout rate over the 30-day span, then it's easy to make an argument for some power coming his way as the weather heats up.

At worst, he could simply remain a solid MIF in deep leagues based on his batted ball data and placement in a solid lineup.

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